Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha2] 04/10/2018 19:29

It's not about the £600 million that ophr has already put into this project , but the funding to move forward , nobody wants to know , so a rabbit needs to be pulled out of the hat ! Not looking good at this point , but you never know , Chinese money is the only hope .

[arteespresso] 04/10/2018 17:46

If ever there was a window where a deal should be made, compared to lng prices from a few years ago, I would say now. Of course, reality doesn't necessarily follow logic!!

[arteespresso] 04/10/2018 17:44

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/lng-demand-to-stay-strong-despite-70-price-rise-report/amp_articleshow/65278273.cms

[ohisay] 04/10/2018 17:11

This is what he tweeted re Fortuna.

Re Fortuna, it remains to be seen whether #OPHR concludes EOY. Price action, consensus says 'no'.
It's priority for BoD & previous deal broke down in May. Company advantage = a c$600m cost recovery pool that isn't transferable to any new licence holder

And that references the discussion after the results by Oliver Quinn



Of course, the PSC itself, as you know, has significant sunk cost into it. And that's quite a -- it's not a key, but it's an important driver of the economics going forward. So for anyone coming in now, whatever deal that we may agree with them, the project has access to that cost pool. The government, of course, is a partner in the project. So the government loss, on one hand, is a negative on the cost pool side. On the other hand, they realize it gets the project away in many respects because it's a big amount of money that gets clawed back. So I think people see that, too, on this point. They recognize that, yes, there's a scenario where people can see us. They can wait for this license to time out, but they have to make some big assumptions there about that. I think the other thing, which is not to overestimate our own strengths here, but we're several years into this in terms of project negotiations, project agreements with the state, with other parties and, particularly, in terms of gas terms and getting classic LNG agreements with the government to do a project. Now if we go away, those agreements, in theory, are floating out there, but there's a significant amount of work for anyone who would come in cold to have to do those. So I think our judgment is, when you balance that up against the potential opportunity for someone to come in "free" next year, I think the level of engagement we've got suggests that people realize that the intrinsic value of dealing with the current holder is actually quite high Again, no guarantees. We're being very clear on that. We don't have a deal, but we are engaged with multiple people. I think that thematic across the mall is quite clear as a driver to engage with us. So in that sense, that's why we remain engaged with them.

[seven7seven] 04/10/2018 16:06

Barronday is a legend.

[ohisay] 04/10/2018 14:39

Interesting comments today on twitter from Baronday trading

[arteespresso] 04/10/2018 01:30

My investments over the last decade have mainly been in the oil sector, and that combined with funds is where I have made the majority of my money. My target is a a price, should it hit then my timeline is irrelevant. Should anything material change, then I adjust my price target accordingly. I have always invested this way, and it tends to work for me, worked with EO., Ophr first time around and SQZ more recently. Ref the price in the next few months/year - I have not stated I do not expect it to rise, rather giving both viewpoints . I think Booth will get some sort of deal done with Fortuna, failing that the priduction is the main attraction. I

[yasx] 04/10/2018 00:38

Arteespresso,

I note you suggest a timeline of some 5 years or so in terms of your investment in this company, and, further, that you expect little upside (if any at all) in the months ahead. Now, one cannot ignore the old line of 'the money being made in the waiting' but, given we are in the latter stages of a mature bull market with the sort of timeframe you espouse, surely it would be prudent of you to wait for the inevitable decline in prices across all asset classes/sectors when (not if) the market falls markedly (a high probability that it does within a year in my view) - and to then pick up shares in the company with a view to retaining them for the longer term view.

Of course, if it is your view that the market broadly continues the appreciation since since early 2009 then the thesis above is irrelevant to you - I find such a prospect inconceivable, but there we are. But, if there is a significant bear market, one only needs to look back at the last few (and I traded trough them all) to see how almost all stocks trend in the direction of the market and no sector is immune to collapse (although defensive and PM's may fare better in relative terms).

The essence of my point is that it is perhaps rather unwise at this stage in the bull cycle to take a five year view on a oil stock, irrespective of underlying developments that might unfold at Ophir.

For the record, I have along position with a much shorter timeline. . But, each to their own.

[nigelpm] 03/10/2018 23:40

Agreed however if Tanzania became valuable in shell's view then taking out Ophir for a billion dollars would be good business. I very much doubt it would happen mind.

[xxnjr1] 03/10/2018 23:09

Fortuna is too small for Shell to get involved. If it were >15TCF then ok maybe, but Fortuna is not a major scale gas resource.

[nigelpm] 03/10/2018 18:00

I think an extension is quite a likely outcome actually if Ophir can't do a deal pre Xmas. EG might as well give them another 3-6 months.

[seven7seven] 03/10/2018 17:03

Here's me wishing Shell and Ophir can work on the Fortuna together, wishful thinking.

[romeike] 03/10/2018 15:03

in The Guardian: Shell approves $12bn liquefied natural gas project in Canada

I also tend to think we might be surprised how quick this rises on a change in sentiment.

Worth adding that it isn't guaranteed that EG will go so far as to refuse to extend the license. Despite recent comments from Obiang Lima, Ophir and Golar have a good relationship with the EG government and will obviously leverage that and evidence of a clearly improving energy sector to give firm assurance about making progress in 2019. Stripping Ophir and Golar of the license doesn't give EG what they want an faster, in fact it could slow things down at a time when they are increasingly keen to diversify away from oil production.

[arteespresso] 03/10/2018 12:45

I agree, it has been 'partially' priced in. If they had said, no deal and it's gone by year end, then I would say it's been fully priced in. We all have differing views, which is great, ultimately the market will dictate where it sees the price. The production is what has made me buy in again having left the fold a few years ago. If I didn't have confidence in this co, I would not have liquidated all my other shares apart from funds and piled it into here. Time will tell whether I've made the correct decision!!!

[ileeman] 03/10/2018 12:26

aretees as you know markets are forward thinking, fortuna has been priced in just look at share price. BOD have said as much their focus is not on that anymore.

27k barrels at current oil vs current mcap.

Work it out.

[arteespresso] 03/10/2018 12:14

If Fortuna is not extended/deal made, I don't think the price is going to be going up!! I think people have to be aware of this, and not assume a deal will be made. If it does, great, if not I'll guesstimate this may get to low 30's, in which case I'll load up again. I currently have a significant holding, and accept my money may be tied up here for a few years. Depends upon the individuals appetite for risk and duration of investment, hence why mentioning the timescale.

[wallywoo] 03/10/2018 12:09

Art: ref your comments on not going to happen in a few weeks / months. May I remind you of 2 things:

1) from a chart perspective once the downtrend reverses there is often a quick share price reversal - there are certainly signs of that, though nothing confirmed

2) Fortuna's licence expires at the end of 2018. That must mean they need to sort it out (big whosh) or let it go (perhaps priced in perhaps not fully depending on terms)

[arteespresso] 03/10/2018 12:08

The price decline was well before the institutional investors reduced their holding. A problem of lack of coherent direction, exploration without revenue until the salamander acquisition, and latterly the Santos. Cash burnt, over $1 billion - in hindsight could have funded the Fortuna LNG rather than the continued wildcat drills, which would have always required significant capital expenditure to monetise. That is the past, and I'm hoping the board have learnt from their 'irresponsible' spending. What they do have are 2 world class assets, no more wild cat drilling required. They should focus on developing their existing producing assets in Asia, and possibly broker a deal for Fortuna or Tanzania. If either of these come off, then I'm confident the market will value accordingly. I believe Booth has been brought in to engineer something wrt a deal, once done, he will move on.

[ileeman] 03/10/2018 11:59

I disagree with sellers sinking price for over 12 months and with oil and gas sky rocketing, you can imagine the sling shot effect over next few months.

Either way happy to wait and let story unfold.

[arteespresso] 03/10/2018 11:49

There would have to be significant news for anywhere near that valuation ie: Fortuna or Tanzania. I'm content with the slowly slowly. I think those looking for the quick rise do not understand or appreciate ophr and the market, the reason for the decline in price over the years. Patience will be rewarded, it's not going to happen with a few weeks/months. All in my view of course!!

[ileeman] 03/10/2018 11:35

Consilidating into the 40p area, still incredibly undervalued.

For it to move back up 10% from lows I would say Capital are about to clear, most likely a large buyer is taking them out.

With all sellers cleared it would not suprise me to see this closer to 80p over next few months.

[thedudie] 03/10/2018 11:09

Bought some this morning ... been watching a while.
td

[arteespresso] 03/10/2018 11:02

Bought my last tranche today, so will wait and see what the next year or two holds. Good luck all long term investors, I have confidence that given a few years, this will become a great value play, a la Serica!!

[wbodger] 02/10/2018 17:25

I see no reference to Ophir in the current list of speakers for the CWCEG conference which starts on Thursday. I believe a slot had been left open earlier. I did not expect AB to go but Oliver Quinn might have (he answered Media questions at the earnings conference call, 13/09).

Not exactly top celebs listed, with all due respect to the EG VIPS. Glad it's not in my diary.

[romeike] 02/10/2018 15:06

True that, but also true that others, by that I mean institutions, are presumably aggressively buying as well.

yasX-"aggressively selling"