Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[general george] 21/9/2018 19:12

Johota,

Agree its been poor in the past. Things havent turned out well. LNG has suffered, and Africa in general hasnt been great, eg Tanzania. So not always easy to execute things.

I think ophr is a different beast now. If sth of the lng can be salvaged, that is a bonus.

The next 12 months will reveal all.

Im particularly interested in Tanzania with all the progress on LNG in Mozambique. Surely they will look at that and decide to stop being so stupid.

[xxnjr1] 21/9/2018 16:54

ashkv

That's one way of looking at it. Here's another

At the time of their IPO, Ophir offered 93,867,334 shares at 250p, and after admission there were 319,480,862 issued and fully paid shares. The other ~225m shares were in the hands of Mittal, Ock-Ziff, and the Kulczyk Group and maybe some others; as these guys were the founding investors in Ophir, years b4 the company IPO'd. ISTR there were some further capital raises between 250p and 600p over the years. And maybe further capital raises on the way down! as the price started it's long decent from c£6 to here. (There are now 746m shares, according to you, which doubtlessly is correct). The share price is now below 40P. Anyone who put money into "fund raisings" at IPO, or since, and had held the shares continuously until now, would most likely, have lost a considerable percentage of their investment!

[wallywoo] 21/9/2018 14:40

Just invested here. May be taking a biggish risk with that downtrend, but I think this may be the time it will turn.

Here's hoping!

[ashkv] 21/9/2018 13:23

For the poster that repeatedly communicates an incorrect canard that Ophir blew up billions.

Please look up Share Capital and Share Premium for Ophir per latest H1 results.

Given that Ophir has only issued shares at a premium to par value of 0.25p per share the total amount Ophir has raised from investors is 746,019,407 ordinary shares at 0.25 = US $ 3.061mn

PLUS SHARE PREMIUM (Amount shares were issued in excess of par value) = $807.47mn

Therefore per my cursory analysis (I might be way off - please correct or advise if I am going about this incorrectly) investors have provided Ophir with $810.5mn in capital versus current market cap of $352.4 (at 1.32 exchange rage and share price of 37.75p)

[ohisay] 21/9/2018 09:45

Its an intersting chart for sure.

[arteespresso] 20/9/2018 21:56

Wouldn't worry about alamaison, he tries to be a trader who by the looks of it struggles somewhat. Best just to treat as a bit of white noise.

[general george] 20/9/2018 19:57

Hope it falls so I can buy more.
I like buying oilers with 27.5kboepd production on a PE Ratio of 2.

Remember Chim Sao field life is until 2028 :)

[ashkv] 20/9/2018 18:50

Down 1% is not a disaster - Buy to Sell were 3 to 1 for a high volume day of over 4mn traded shares.

It will rise.....

Sneaky games - share was up until just prior to close where it got hammered...

[ashkv] 20/9/2018 18:49

Down 1% is not a disaster - Buy to Sell were 3 to 1 for a high volume day of over 4mn traded shares.

It will rise.....

Sneaky games - share was up until just prior to close where it got hammered...

[alamaison5] 20/9/2018 17:08

What a disaster this share, lol...Ho yes, there is a lot of interest.
To SELL :-}

[arteespresso] 19/9/2018 20:58

A reminder of what's in E Africa should it get sorted out!https://www.ophir-energy.com/our-assets/tanzania/

[fangorn2] 19/9/2018 19:52

"xxnjr119 Sep '18 - 16:14 - 4848 of 4851
0 0 0

"Thanks ohisay - it's worse than Uganda! What's the matter with these East Africans?"

East Africa,West Africa, South Africa.It makes no difference - It is the same everywhere.

[ashkv] 19/9/2018 16:51

Per my reviewing the press reports on Tanzania there are 3 road blocks that need to be sorted prior to a Gas agreement.

1) Governing law - standard to have UK, Cayman etc Tanzanians wish to have terms under their Kangaroo courts/law.
2) Nature of clients - Tanzania wishes to do pipeline to South Africa to increase regional sway. Whereas Shell/Exxon would prefer a LNG Terminal to export to Asian / other clients.
3) Economic royalty terms

Point 3 is usually a standard obstacle - however, the Tanzanian mupppet government / PM is fixating on the first two for the moment....

Hoping and praying....

[ashkv] 19/9/2018 16:46

Tanzania have floated a tender for an advisor on the gas project.

It is in their interest to get it done - and I have a good hunch that a deal will culminate by 2019 end when traction increases on Mozambique...

Great location for Asian buyers on the African East Coast....China should get involved :)

[ohisay] 19/9/2018 16:27

Well yes ..

That is the game being played by the people who want to colonise us economically,” President Magufuli said.

I think I saw recently he thought he should be president for llfe - no wonder Exxon want to sell up and concentrate on Mozambique!

[ohisay] 19/9/2018 15:49

Hi XX - I suspect Big Oil is very wary of committing capital to Tanzania given the antics of the current president - a resource nationalist if ever there was one.I think everybody noticed what happened to Acacia mining recently ...





The government has been dilly-dallying with the renewal of the operating licences for the IOCs, which expired early this year, letting them operate using provisional licences.

[xxnjr1] 19/9/2018 15:37

Hi there, bought a few of these this morning having previously sold at circa £6. talking about Tanzania - whats the current status of the licences for Blocks 1/3/4?

eg Block 1 1st extension period ended 7th Dec 2013
then a further extension of 3 yrs takes us to 7th Dec 2016

although in the case of a gas discovery (which is of commercial interest) the contractor will be granted (upon application) a period of eight years to appraise the discovery.....

Anybody know where we are with the licences today?

[ashkv] 19/9/2018 14:48

iLeeman - also Fortuna was due to happen per Nick Coooper ex-CEO of Ophir as of same time last year.

Nonetheless, given new strategy and booming 27,500 bpd production in stable Asian countries, with Opex of $12, Producing reserves (2P) of 71mn, average price for oil approximately equal to Brent, 70% to 30% Oil / Gas mix, Cash of $75mn, Post Santos Acq debt around $240m and projection for $300m p/a free cash flow over next 3 years with positive case scenario of production increase to 35,000 bpd - OPHIR LOOKS DIRT CHEAP.

However, can't compare to last year same time as Fortuna was more than 50% prob at that juncture - whereas now less than 10% chance we get anything IMHO.

Another mega wild card is Tanzania with 500mn barrels of Gas Reserves could still happen - we sold the other 50% of gas assets for $1.3bn in 2013/2014.

[ileeman] 19/9/2018 13:46

Worth noting, although I understand there are other factors involved.

When price was 100p on OPHR last year oil price was 50, oil price now 70+.

[someuwin] 19/9/2018 10:01

Back over 40p soon.

Then on towards 50p.

[nigelpm] 18/9/2018 20:15

Buy low, sell high will always stand you in good stead - you seem like a good logical and rational investor and poster. Great to have you on board.

[arteespresso] 18/9/2018 19:52

Feel a bit sad having sold sqz, still has great potential and may well buy in again at what will most probably be at a higher price - held them for approx 10 years, always impressed by their prudence, but ultimately had set myself a price target to cash out at - key for me was not getting emotionally attached to where the price may go. Over here I feel we gave huge potential, who knows how long it takes. I think the Santos assets and salamander will turn out to be wise moves, with the head office move there as well, to me states this company are changing course. It may take a while, but the foundations are being set. The reason I sold out of here years ago was the crazy philosophy of exploration after exploration with no producing assets, like a bottomless money pit. The only thing they had going for them, was the excellent success with the drill, otherwise this would have been in the pennies.