Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[lizardman_] 30/5/2019 11:15

Might have been 30% of FCF though, can't remember.

[lizardman_] 30/5/2019 11:15

I believe the original plan was to pay out 30% of profit iirc. The full year results should give the share price a boost when released, but next year should really consolidate things imo.

On the plus side, much of this was telegraphed by OPG, in that there would be a year of realignment, and as forecasted coal prices came down, the company would return to profit. These have all been borne out in time.

Despite Gujurat being a weight around their neck for the last few years, I do wonder if it is now profitable, or at least self sustainable, since coal prices have dropped and the cross-subsidy situation resolved. I'd love to see the Gujurat P&L/ Cash flow in the final results, although I think it's unlikely.

[andycapp1] 29/5/2019 11:24

Good lord this thing lacks any conviction at all. I simply don’t understand why they don’t make a commitment to distributing the cashflow. It is bizarre unless they can’t for some reason? Tax or some sort of structural or loan restriction?

[andycapp1] 22/5/2019 20:42

Dont hedge 100% as you don’t exactly know availability of plant. But gives them room to do a bit more if they fancy it I guess.

[lizardman_] 22/5/2019 19:25

Interesting. Why not hedge at a higher level than 60% then?

[andycapp1] 21/5/2019 14:57

Not necessarily. If in contango then might pay more now. What they should do is look at mkt, look at their PPA and see what hedging can squeeze out in terms of return. It’s all about certainty here. The more of that, the more valuable the cashflows now the higher the share price etc.

[lizardman_] 21/5/2019 12:56

Would there normally be a discount to market price when forward buying this quantity of coal?

[tallprawn] 21/5/2019 11:14

Agreed Jozo - Albeit early In the year to date, it was good to see a confirmation in this mornings update that we're inline.A return to the mid to high 20's and consolidation in that area prior to FY19 results and a further outlook statement looks to be on to me.

[jozo] 21/5/2019 11:06

Hoping this takes some of the coal price volatility risk off the table.Assuming opg meet this years estimates then PE for this year of 3.2 is way too low.

[tallprawn] 21/5/2019 09:39

For anyone who missed Mello, OPG are presenting at the following event in June in London -https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening-london-180619

[andycapp1] 21/5/2019 09:12

I think the LTIP will be modified. At least Dmitri seems to get what opg is about ie squeezing as good a risk adjusted return for its equity as possible. Just need to see that returned to us now.

[rivaldo] 21/5/2019 08:49

I've bought some this morning. OPG looked cheap beforehand, and now looks even better.

OPG (via Dmitri) presented persuasively last week at Mello, and they've delivered quickly on what was promised as regards the hedging.

Despite the farcical LTIP, prospects look great, and it seems the Board are now fully behind a sensible growth strategy.

[tallprawn] 21/5/2019 07:09

Now that's a good bit of news that should kick the share price back north again. That provides necessary visibility and should provide improved confidence to the market now.

[andycapp1] 20/5/2019 10:57

I did sell at 26p! I’d also add that overall I haven’t made any money from this so not as though I’m gloating!! Anyhow Flowerhead you simply don’t add anything meaningful to the OPG debate. You send round articles about power shortages and EVs which have little or no bearing in OPGs equity NPV. You seem to have no real idea as to what will actually drive OPGs share value. That’s all. Clueless.

[azalea] 20/5/2019 08:38

Ah two birds of a feather flying together. One a liar. The other an idiot, who claims he sold out at 26p.

[andycapp1] 20/5/2019 08:25

Oh he is an utter dolt. He just rehashes, he has absolutely no views or thoughts of his own.

[jailbird] 19/5/2019 07:25

The EV growth story flowerhead (Azaliar) likes to post for India is quashed here https://qz.com/india/1620363/upcoming-ev-cars-in-india-have-a-bleak-future-says-bloomberg/There will be hardly any electric vehicles on Indian roads even by 2023

[andycapp1] 17/5/2019 16:02

Well aside of the 5% likely dilution it caused, being focussed at the wrong people, with ridiculous vesting prices and being yet another example of terrible corporate governance, it’s great!!

[tallprawn] 17/5/2019 15:41

Nobody asked - I'm not overly bothered by them tbh.

[beangrinder] 17/5/2019 15:26

Did anyone ask about the LTIP or was it even mentioned by FD? Shares are v cheap in spite of this nonsense, as most are suggesting.

[tallprawn] 17/5/2019 13:17

The power price is fixed on a 12 month term so that is secure for a reasonable period.The only major variable is the coal price - If they hedge a reasonable percentage of it (eg 50%-60%) then revenues will be a lot more predictable and secure. The market will like this and respond favourably imo.I don't believe they'll be able to hedge anymore than 60%. Happy to be proven wrong by them though.

[lizardman_] 17/5/2019 12:58

Thoughts on div for the year? My guess is 1.1p

[andycapp1] 17/5/2019 10:46

Crikey, prudent financial management!! Hope they are putting a power price hedge/fix alongside. That would improve the certainty of EBITDA/profits...a good thing. All they need to do then is to repatriate the results back to the shareholders and all be be well in the sunlit uplands of Guptaville.

[tallprawn] 17/5/2019 09:15

Dmitri seemed very confident yesterday at Mello that a coal hedging deal was being negotiated and would be delivered which should give the market confidence.Let's see if it materialises.