Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 14/11/2018 15:09

ppvn,

if Gupta put his hands in his pocket and purchased 100k worth of shares, I might take this serious again, and top up myself. i'm sure he could afford it with £1.4 million bonus pay off. a few years back.

[igoe104] 14/11/2018 15:05

Does anyone know, what coal price do we really need to see for opg to be properly back in the money ?


its 102 at the moment, so 75 - 80 ?

[ppvn] 14/11/2018 14:53

Switch off until the Dec financials. Last day of vwap for the scrip today so new shares will be issued around the 11.26p mark (Will know at close). Looked to me like some entitlements were sold the first couple of days when the shares went ex but the share price held up ok.

Should finish the year positively. I'm very much hoping for mid 20s by year end, perhaps a little more. May need to wait until the next results though since coal has only really meaningfully dropped since August. Opg seem to use about 50:50 Indonesian to Indian coal mix though so we will see. Should be relatively obvious in Dec what the impact has been.

If they can get back to 40% margins don't see why this shouldn't become either couple of hundred million mkt cap, or dividend cash cow. Assuming they don't decide to waste all their profits again, that is.

[igoe104] 14/11/2018 14:43

Yes this is a disaster of a investment, every time the share price looks like its moving forward, it starts creeping backwards to lower lows. same pattern for the last few years. I wonder what M & G Investment Management Ltd are thinking they own over 13% of the company, i'm sure gupta isn't top of their Christmas card list ?



on the whole Indian investments have made shocking investments.

[ppvn] 02/11/2018 14:00

I think it's going to take the next finances to convince people that opg have turned the corner. Not terribly surprising that people are still keen to get out; there really hasn't been that much great news here for quite a while. I've followed the company only because it was one of the first shares I bought (22.04.2009 @ 31.9p), but haven't touched it since I sold way back.

I've gone on and on about it, but since Gujarat, the boats, the other misc writedowns have been done, it really should be a simple case. We know how much power they sell in Chennai. We know the price it's sold at. We can guess pretty well at the coal costs, admin, tax etc etc. At this price to me at least it's a compelling case. But they do need to prove it!

[dave4545] 02/11/2018 13:50

11.675p now PPVN

Somebody must have sold quite a few as quite a difference

[ppvn] 02/11/2018 13:48

Frankly rather hope it stays low until at least next thursday. More freebies for shareholders here, if it does!

Edit: sorry, Thursday +5!

[dave4545] 02/11/2018 13:37

mm's want 11.95p now so could have some upward movement on any support

[ppvn] 02/11/2018 13:28

Sorry, thought that sounded a bit ramptastic so I'll make my predictions for the next income statement that should be coming in Dec. Since Gujarat has been cut loose, this is my best guess.

Revenue: c. £75m for H1 2019. Based on same output from Chennai at the 5% increased rate of 5.47 INR / unit they negotiated for 2019.
Cost of revenue: £45m for H1 - based on a 10% reduction in coal cost as it's fallen 25% from the highs now so figure 10% drop realistic.
Gross profit therefore about £30m for H1.
Distribution, finance costs, admin and depreciation I've slated about £12m for H1.
Therefore I figure net profit for H1 should be about £18m.

Think my numbers are relatively conservative and scope to improve perhaps. That's my investment rationale anyway. Based on current FX between INR and GBP, so figures are give or take.

Only Chennai ops guessed at and doesn't include solar at all (as not sure there will be huge difference from that).

[ppvn] 02/11/2018 12:58

Unloved it may be, but I still think it'll double by Xmas...

[andycapp1] 02/11/2018 12:10

I do miss Flowerpothead. Hey you still out there man?

[andycapp1] 02/11/2018 12:05

Yes there was an interesting piece from Macquarie today regarding Chinese winter coal restocking coming to an end. This typically sees thermal coal falling by $5-7. That said this thing is so utterly unloved that it could probably fall to zero and the share price wouldn't move. I fear without replacing Gupta there simply is no possibility of a decent valuation as the market will always wonder what banana skin is next?

[turbocharge] 01/11/2018 11:38

Good to see the strong downward trend in coal price being sustained

[stur7672] 30/10/2018 12:39

Half year result to 30th September generally are reported in December by OPG

[ppvn] 30/10/2018 10:51

Scrip div going ex on 8th November.

Also noted that despite in the last update saying that 6 monthly reporting would follow, that their website still says that a financial update is due in December.

[ppvn] 26/10/2018 15:02

Yes, think that's the drop they referred to in the "kitchen sink" RNS. Since the end of August it really hasn't moved that much, about 2% down or so. Didn't want to say it's crashed in value since that had already been announced, but it should obviously make the next financial statement a bit better looking, depending on whether they were hedging when the prices were higher or not.

[turbocharge] 26/10/2018 14:54

According to your link, the long trend trend is downwards, coming down from a high of 47 to current price of 38 (a nearly 20% drop)...

[ppvn] 26/10/2018 14:40

Indonesian coal not been doing terribly much. Is going down, prices available through CME group:

[turbocharge] 26/10/2018 14:07

According to this chart, price seems to be in downward trend for Oct, with a blip last week:

[jozo] 26/10/2018 10:54

Not sure how Indonesian coal price is behaving relative to Newcastle, but Newcastle definitely heading in the right direction.

[ppvn] 23/10/2018 15:24

Don't suppose anyone heard anything from the AGM earlier?

I see all the resolutions passed but wondered if there was any other colour!

[ppvn] 19/10/2018 17:08

Hi Andy,

I'm hopeful the strategy with the kitchen sinking in the accounts was their attempt to turn the ship. They are giving it 6 months between updates now so with luck we should see a meaningful change either then, or perhaps in anticipation. Here's hoping, anyway!

[dave4545] 19/10/2018 12:10

274k bought today no sales.

Might be turning which is about right this level as last large director buy was at 12p ish.

[andycapp1] 19/10/2018 08:17

The trouble is it probably is hugely cheap PER of 2X etc - but no one trusts Guptaan inch now. This thing has been run so badly that it is impossible to resurrect with the current CEO and non execs (who are impotent). So yes undeniably cheap but I think the exit will be a take private/delist. And then at what price?

[ppvn] 17/10/2018 13:04

Suspect market might be waiting for confirmation in the accounts that the worst has passed?