Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 14/7/2018 11:49

TOG
What percentage of shareholdings is required to pass a vote to take an Aim listed company private?

[andycapp1] 12/7/2018 17:08

I think is a very fair point. And little the poor minorities can do.

[the original goldbug] 12/7/2018 15:46

The problem is this share has just become an annoying rounding error for most institutional shareholders.

When you see it on your spreadsheet when you turn on your computer in the morning it is akin to looking at a nasty pimple on your nose.

People just want to get rid of it. It will be a real challenge for OPG to rebuild its shareholder base.

In fact I hazard they won’t and, much like Vedanta for example, I expect Gupta will eventually take it private when he has his financing in place.

To a large extent it’s a case of OPG failing the market and the market failing OPG.

[john09] 12/7/2018 14:34

Yep not good

[andycapp1] 12/7/2018 14:11

Hmm didn’t think sellers would be active at these levels! Just bought a few more!

[andycapp1] 11/7/2018 08:17

Yes all a bit “hope delayed” but as one poster said coal will fall in due course and it probably provides a stronger bargaining chip re the mess that is Gujarat. TN should be ok and the loan there is very fast amortising so the equity ownership looks fine and that is probably worth 30p plus per share. I just Gupta would start being a CEO!!

[john09] 09/7/2018 12:11

This is not updated for July but the price is $104.65 so you can see just what a jump it is

hxxps://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/commodities-benchmark-coal-price-indonesia-rebounds-in-june-2018/item8828

[john09] 09/7/2018 12:10

This is weighing on the share price hugely

hxxps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/070618-indonesia-sets-july-hba-thermal-coal-price-at-6-year-high-of-10465mt

[john09] 06/7/2018 12:36

SCSW write up tomorrow?

[jozo] 04/7/2018 18:15

Goldbug,Have just read the article. Interesting and clearly August should hopefully create some clarity (although I suspect the outcome could well be delayed)Against the backdrop painted in the article opg are potentially in a better situation than others in the sector.

[the original goldbug] 04/7/2018 14:41

Interesting article in the FT from Henny Sender about bad debts in Indian banks due to the power sector.

The implications are quite bullish for Gujarat.

[andycapp1] 03/7/2018 16:58

Well that’s a weight off flowerpothead. And erm captive plant status?

[azalea] 03/7/2018 12:52

The significance of 2030 which India has set to produce only EV, is the date India (a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement) is obliged to reduce its share of global emissions.
The monetary incentives for the Modi Government to helm a renewable energy revolution, is the reduction of oil bills by circa $60 billion, emissions by 37% and curb the increasing infrastructure over the next 13 years.

This December, the government is set to roll out a national policy setting out standards and specs for EV and provide guidelines to encourage their use. For starters the Renewable Energy ministry is proposing to replace 10,000 government vehicles with EV.

Costs of batteries are falling significantly and the building of a manufacturing plant in India is on the cards.

[jozo] 03/7/2018 09:50

That's me in for a wee top up in my Sipp, ISA and dealing acc.My gut feeling is that there is a degree of lag between economic data re Asia and price of coal. I feel that a correction in coal prices must be round the corner (though I thought that back in October!)I am hoping that will be a catalyst for opg to head back to its intrinsic valuation. Sorting Gujarat as well would be this icing on the cake.

[andycapp1] 03/7/2018 09:28

Agree it is a mess. I think OPG should be able to negotiate a reasonable deal on Gujurat and then it is a case of waiting for a catalyst, whether lower coal or higher tariffs or even some corporate activity although that is unlikely as Gupta seems to have no desire to upset his so called legacy. The trouble is the legacy of OPG weighs heavily - years of underperformance, non delivery, etc etc so now it has become an out the money option on something happening. Whether the likes of Marlborough and Slater have been cleaned out into the most recent purchases I don't know - i.e. whether the shareholder base has stabilised? But I do think it is sufficiently away from intrinsic value now that it represents ok value as a punt. But not really an investment at least in the truest sense of the word!

[the original goldbug] 03/7/2018 09:05

The whole industry is up the spout in India and there is only so long public sector banks will be able to hide the bad debts on all these power ventures.

The whole industry needs a massive boost of equity investment and higher tariffs.

In two years there will be a deficit again in Tamil Nadu. Somebody needs to invest now, but nobody will. We won’t have to wait until 2040 before this plays out.

[jozo] 03/7/2018 08:42

Lol - that's going to be a real game changer. I'd be happy getting through the next few years and management creating a secure structure for the company

[andycapp1] 03/7/2018 08:31

TN will still be ok and might help negotiations on Gujarat? So not sure changes intrinsic value but agree doesn’t help to close the gap to intrinsic value. So share your depression. Still proliferation of EVs should change things by 2040 so hang tough!!

[jozo] 03/7/2018 07:34

Can't say I'm liking the way Newcastle coal prices are going.Add in the rupee currency weekness against the US dollar and it's not pretty.I'm don't quite understand the rationale for this - China is slowing and demand should in theory be dropping. I'm guessing that 'hot money' is tracking many of the main commodities higher, with coal caught up in this bubble, irrespective of fundamentals.Very depressing for opg.

[stur7672] 30/6/2018 14:46

Plus fuel cell technology where electrolyzers are used to create hydrogen from either on or off grid electricity. ITM, for example, have been installing a handful of hydrogen refilling stations in the UK.

[jeffian] 30/6/2018 13:30

"In this country tens if not hundreds of billions of pounds will be required to reinforce the network for the mass adoption of EVs"..........

......not to mention lighter/better batteries, better distance and quicker re-charging. From a personal point of view, the best solution I can imagine would be similar to the 'Calor gas' model - drive in, drop empty batteries, take on fully charged batteries, drive off, ideally within 5-10 minutes as per current fuel refills.

[stur7672] 30/6/2018 12:50

Interesting discussion however one of biggest issues is not necessarily the additional generation capacity required to fuel the EV revolution - although significant- but the ability of the transmission and distribution infrastructure to deliver the additional juice to the end user. In this country tens if not hundreds of billions of pounds will be required to reinforce the network for the mass adoption of EVs

[azalea] 30/6/2018 10:28

ac
Good to see a poster who has never held shares in OPG take so much interest in the company. However there is a saying one should not ask a question to which one does not already know the answer. One assumes that come 2040 when the UK will reportedly produce only EV cars,even hybrid production could end. With hybrids and fully EV currently notably dearer than petrol cars, I will continue to buy and drive the latter, albeit perhaps a different make.

IF, the Indian government keeps to its decision to produce only fully EV vehicles in 2030, then in the years ahead there will have to be a massive increase in EV cars from what is currently just a trickle. There are at least half a dozen manufacturers intending to build/convert plants in India to produce EV. With EV battery technology already improving, the issue of a vehicle's range on one charge, is rapidly becoming a non issue. As stated earlier, India's biggest challenge will be to generate enough electricity.

China is by far the worlds current leader in EV production, 2017 770,000. 2018 1000,000 estimated. USA 2017- 199,000. 2018- 400,000 estimated.

[andycapp1] 29/6/2018 19:51

Flowerpothead and erm the answer on captive plant status is? Or is that less relevant than how many electric tuk tuks are popping round Delhi? I own a hybrid and they have much further to go. Yet I do think at least 30% of cars will be electric pretty soon. Just not in India!