Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[trader_3] 19/11/2020 20:44

Great to see so many positive posts after tonights presentation. I think all LTH’s understand and appreciate the vast potential in ORPH and the Herculean effort Cathal is making to progress everything.

The highlight for me (apart from a possible large lucrative China deal!) was SGS more or less being confirmed as the third facility and ‘sharing revenues’ with ORPH (I’m also quite relieved that no imminent buy out appears to be on the cards, but I agree that SGS may make this move at a future date).

SGS’s new 45 bed facilty in mid 2021 can potentially double ORPH’s revenues yet again (in addition to the Royal Free Hospital beds) and secure further recurring revenues in future years (hopefully we’ll get a more accurate broker update soon, taking these factors into account).

Cathal moving to London with his family, reinforces his commitment to the business and no doubt will drive further expansion, which is set to grow significantly in the short to medium term.

IMHO GLA

[m5] 19/11/2020 20:17

I would like to see the price going up of course, but I have to find a way of realising some more money, so I can add. To bring his family over is a real commitment to the business, but its what you expect from CF.I know we keep saying it but its a bloody exciting Company to be involved with truly huge prospects. That Chinese mention was very interesting, that certainly could be a biggi.

[chelsea101] 19/11/2020 19:50

I thought Cathal was excellent tonight and although calm he was really bullish about where we are heading. I just wonder if it had been mentioned this morning that there was monthly revenue from the Wellcome Trust collaboration whether we would have ended today in the red? I’m pretty confident that tomorrow will be a blue day. Now in talks with the Chinese. You can’t accuse Cathal of putting his feet up!

[pogue] 19/11/2020 19:31

Plasybryn
clearly some large divis are going to happen :0)

[plasybryn] 19/11/2020 19:26

Yes he was calmer and spoke better. More considered and mature. Brought to task about over promising which hopefully will make him think. Sarah reminded him shareholders remember what has been said/promised.

I think he needs to cut back on so many presentations and use them to really drive home significant achievements. The slides & the speech could be cut back and focused on what we want to hear.

That is commitment for the family to move to London. He will have to prove to them it was worth it! They are more demanding than us the Orphan Army I suspect.

[pierre oreilly] 19/11/2020 19:25

8464, 1g

There's 30m of gov work in royal free - I expect that will take up much of next year. Th covid studies are bigger than others, and add in the facility if being provided for free, and 19 beds v 24 beds, then it seems consistent with the qm facility maxing out at 60m. Probably 20m profit from qm, and 20m from royal free (due to much less costs).

So i'd say no rns because the revenue from it for next year is covered in the gov contract rns. C did imply we've got royal free for 18m (or did i mishear?), so probably 6 months for non gov work.

If those figures are ballpark, just the challenge study work gives 40m profit next year. Let's divide by 2 in case it's too generous. What cap should orph be if earnings next year are £20m (just from this one area). ppe 20 gives 400m, ppe 30 gives 600m. (just from qm and rf, ignoring everything else).

[klosters65] 19/11/2020 19:21

Tonight was the first time that I have listened to CF.I could hear him clearly. He spoke slowly,was impressive. His vision,intentions regarding prioritising the running of the Company going forward gave me total confidence. CF has won me over and I will continue to build my position.

[talkman2] 19/11/2020 19:19

Much better presentation tonight . Rey positive

[1gw] 19/11/2020 19:12

Why have we not had an RNS to say that Orph has secured access to the Royal Free beyond the 3 government-sponsored studies? Surely that is material.

[m5] 19/11/2020 19:11

Looks to me like the wearables deal is imminent, before Christmas? Speaking to 10 wearables and tech Companies. Moving to London must make sense for him and his family. SGS might not be buying us anytime soon,that suits me, but I think that's where we will end up. Good presentation. He got a bit of stick but dealt with it well. All good.

[1gw] 19/11/2020 19:10

Sounds like the Imutex deal delay is a bit less certain now. He is talking about end-of-the-year/early next year and pointing out that there are still 6 weeks left in the year. So it might slip until February or so (3 months indication given in previous presentation) but could still do it closer to the earlier Christmas guidance. Which must mean there are some fairly active negotiations underway I would have thought.

[realcooltrader] 19/11/2020 19:09

I used to work for Parity in the early 90s, made a fair bit on their share employee scheme.

[pierre oreilly] 19/11/2020 19:07

Oooh Parity, made more on that than any other share, easy in the tech boom days.

[realcooltrader] 19/11/2020 19:07

She's got a real soft spot for our Cathal! I'm really glad I have a large % of my portfolio here, the use of the word exponential is very pleasing.

[pogue] 19/11/2020 19:06

Well the take over is off I would say, he is moving the family to London, looks like the long haul and divis!

[1trickydicky] 19/11/2020 18:56

Institutions been loading up their stocks last few weeks pushing out the panic and impatient sellers ahead of the next steady rise up. Just what CF wants! I’m sure the immutex delay last Friday could easily of been a ploy to feed the institutions further this week. Just made it clear in today’s presentation that it is due to prioritising the wearables deals and pulling off multiple multimillion pound deals stretches you. Could of easily said that last Friday which I’m sure institutions already knew about.

[m5] 19/11/2020 18:33

Cheers. On now.

[pierre oreilly] 19/11/2020 18:31

Sensyne seems like vapourware to me. An idea to develop some software. All frills and no knickers. Typical aim company to avoid imv. Good luck to investors there. Won't be around in another 2 years. And that is capped more than orph? wtf?

[lukehold] 19/11/2020 18:28

Sorry anyone got a link?

[realcooltrader] 19/11/2020 18:08

m5, he's on second, after Sensyne who is presenting right now.

"Sarah Lowther
The order is Sensyne, Orphan and Parity. All cracking companies"

[pogue] 19/11/2020 18:04

First up is a company with a large medical database that's interesting. Worth £176 million

[hotteruk6] 19/11/2020 17:52

Looks to me like we are def ready for a breakout.....cant work out if it's retest 16p or back to 30p+.....probably both in the one day knowing this company!

[malcolmmm] 19/11/2020 17:16

Talking of holes in the ground .The definition of newly excavated gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on the top

[m5] 19/11/2020 16:45

Nothing to report TA wise today, all as it was, although I hoped we would have pushed on a little. Can CF bring anything new to the party tonight?