Osb Share Discussion Threads

[bad robot] 27/6/2016 17:10

I have a buy order at 19p for the dead cat bounce to 32p. Keep shorting.


Hope this helps

[adamb1978] 27/6/2016 15:07

If you were to probability weight a valuation of OSB now with two cases:
- case 1: the EU mess gets sorted out and life returns to normal
- case 2: it doesnt and OSB goes bust

Then given this was recently trading in the 350p - 400p range, given we're now sub 200p its implying that there a c.50% chance of it going under.

[adamb1978] 27/6/2016 13:14

At what point do they become good value? Its a UK-only bank (isnt it?) so the financial passport thing wouldnt hit them even if UK banks lost it (which they wont). Given the almost 50% mark down in days, it suggests that earnings would drop by half...I can understand a lull in teh housing market but still...

[asturius101] 27/6/2016 13:11

All banks are down today - I have actually bought here and Barclays today

[nick rubens] 27/6/2016 12:21

OSB going out of business then? Look at the plunge today? I don't get it.

[adamb1978] 24/6/2016 08:36

Any reason why a price isn't showing up for OSB?

[adamb1978] 10/6/2016 08:28

Its very cheap on current numbers. I'm expecting some earnings upgrades after the interims

[stoph] 10/6/2016 07:49

Shares Mag tips as a buy at 325.6 after the better than expected sale of Rochester Financing No1.

[adamb1978] 28/5/2016 13:23

Has anyone run the numbers on OSB based on the guidance which they've provided? They've made comments about NIM, loan growth, cost:income ratio etc - based on my calculations, they'll do about 42p - 43p EPS for the year, compared to market forecasts of 38.5p.

[dlku] 13/5/2016 07:34

SHAW directors bailing at low point

[future financier] 11/5/2016 16:28

It could be the "Remainers" scaremongering about a collapse in house prices in the event of Brexit. Since there is absolutely no evidence to support this conjecture AND Brexit is unlikely to happen - I think any fall caused by Brexit scares is likely to reverse.

[edwardt] 11/5/2016 14:46

2018 pe of 5.5 and a prospective divi of 4.5% - getting my attention - is this in some brexit basket, explaining the fall??

[woodcutter] 11/5/2016 11:14

well i thought the update was very good too and i continue to hold. Investing is about patience, as woodford would acknowledge, and at some point once sector consolidation begins then i feel the rewards will come through. The loan book appears to be decent quality and further progress will only add to earnings so i'm here for the long term barring any major disasters.

woody

[future financier] 11/5/2016 09:57

I used to be vary wary of OSB and its management - but I am happy to have been proven wrong as they are navigating the turbulent waters of BTL and other property lending very adroitly whilst pulling off some astute purchases of loan books.

[cwa1] 11/5/2016 09:32

Well, I thought this morning's update was satisfactory and confident sounding:-



Highlights

Strong financial and operational performance has continued

Net loans & advances grew by £460m during the first quarter, driven by further strong organic origination and accelerated by acquisitions of first and second charge residential mortgage portfolios totalling £131m

Margins on £627m of organic origination in the quarter remained strong. Net interest margin in the first quarter was in line with our expectations and we remain confident in our guidance of around 300bps for the full year

Cost:income ratio remains excellent. We anticipate the full year ratio to be in line with or slightly higher than the 26% achieved in 2015, as previously guided

Despite the introduction of the bank tax surcharge, return on equity was strong in the first quarter and we are on track to deliver a return comfortably ahead of our financial target

The Group has drawn £576m under the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to date. We are targeting a minimum drawdown of c. £700m in 2016

Business growth continues to be supported by a robust capital position
Andy Golding, CEO of OneSavings Bank, said:

"I am extremely pleased with the performance of the business so far this year. We achieved strong levels of new business in the first quarter with £627m of organic origination at attractive margins, supported by acquisitions of £131m.

As expected, March was a record month as we fulfilled heightened demand to accelerate mortgage completions ahead of stamp duty changes. Intermediary focus has now returned to new applications and we are confident in achieving our full year growth targets.

We remain confident in the outlook for 2016."

[hutch_pod] 29/4/2016 22:41

I thought the same and I guess people realised..

[maloneyt] 28/4/2016 13:21

How come all the banks are down but OSB is up on a market down day ?

[cwa1] 28/4/2016 10:37

Here. Watching. Waiting. Nothing new to report really....

[maloneyt] 28/4/2016 10:26

Where is everyone. Any views on this. It seems to have recovered well this morning

[uhound] 19/4/2016 15:47

Not so sure about the comment "professional landlords still investing".

Me and a lot other professional landlords I know with large portfolios are looking to start selling.

The restrictions on lending criteria coming in later this year will also dampen demand for BTL mortgages also.

Property market already showing signs of slowing, so I think OSB and the other challenger banks are going to come under pressure.

[woodcutter] 19/4/2016 13:53

It's interesting the view of investors on the future out comes of the challenger banks and the likelihood of a decline in BTL business. With savings rates at all time lows and ECB exacerbating this by introducing negative interest rates i see further growth in this sector. Indeed I thought about adding to my own residential letting portfolio recently but have decided against doing so as i'm a pensioner now.

Notwithstanding, many of my younger friends are entering the BTL market for the first time as returns on other investments aren't worth considering and in the longer term they see capital appreciation in the property market as the best and safest return.

There's no legacy issues as with the major banks and even in the event of a slow down in loan approval the exisitng loan book will provide a solid dividend cover going forward. There will also be the continued disruption to the historical banks as challengers encroach more and more on the SME lending sector.

Finally as growth in the sector begins to dissipate, as it inevitable will, there'll be sector consolidation through acquisition, in order to drive scale.

For those who are patient this should be a very rewarding investment. I've taken a contrarian view and now have a number of challenger banks in my portfolio.

aimho woody

[aishah] 30/3/2016 09:21

Challenger banks breathe sigh of relief over buy-to-let changes
The Bank of England has today revealed plans to clamp down on the buy-to-let market, setting out strict new rules for banks underwriting buy-to-let mortgage contracts.

"Investec’s Ian Gordon told City A.M. there has been a “sigh of relief at the largely sensible and pragmatic approach” by the Bank to raise the underwriting standards of a minority of banks, noting that publicly-traded specialist lenders Aldermore, OneSavingsBank, Shawbrook and Virgin Money already comply with the new rules."

hxxp://www.cityam.com/237681/bank-of-england-clamps-down-on-buy-to-let-market-with-strict-new-rules-for-mortgage-underwriters

[aishah] 18/3/2016 09:11

UK challenger banks: OneSavings Bank, Aldermore, Shawbrook among the lenders seeing a bounce-back

Challenger banks are bouncing back after months of share price weakness, with the markets rewarding smaller listed lenders for posting double-digit increases in profits, lending and customer numbers.

[happygolucky] 17/3/2016 20:44

I agree with the comment about professional buy-to-let landlords. In my experience, professional landlords are not happy about all the tax changes penalising them, but they still see property as the best asset class to hold and so are not being deterred from further investments in the sector.

All good news for OSB IMHO and why I see a return to 350p+ in the medium term.