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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osb Group Plc | OSB | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.40 | -0.63% | 379.40 | 16:35:14 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 381.80 | 375.40 | 382.80 | 379.40 | 381.80 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| BANKS |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 10/4/2024 14:39 by davius One of only three in my portfolio that didn't take a caning when the US inflation figure missed the expected number by a staggering 0.1%.OSB and CBG are my standout performers today. |
Posted at 15/3/2024 08:43 by longwell Share buy backs and dividend will cause gradual rise until ex dividend date.After that it becomes more speculative. |
Posted at 14/3/2024 08:28 by lord gnome So it appears to me that OSB is being hit again for the adjustments revealed at the half year stage. We now have what appears (on the surface) to be a healthy and growing business trading on a historic pe of 4.5 and paying a dividend of just under 10%. |
Posted at 09/3/2024 06:05 by popit apple53Thanks for the reply Yes there is a chat here on advfn for Halyk but there has only been one post from one poster last year and unfortunately there was no reply They are probably off the radar for the vast majority of investors because of the location and geopolitical concerns I read various Substack articles and recommendations on Halyk such as this one last year and the valuation seemed to be very good with a forecast PE of less than 3 and dividend of over 15% Capital ratios also seem to be fine at over 18% They dominate in their local Kazakhstan market with about half the population as customers and the economy should also benefit from huge future growth given the strategic location in Central Asia and good economic relations with all countries including western countries and BRICS countries The share price has doubled since the lows of 2022 but I see no reason why it should not double again to about $40 and higher I think OSB and STB also look great value but it is difficult to find a better value bank than Halyk hxxps://moderninvest |
Posted at 07/3/2024 08:57 by apple53 I didn't get down as far as v in my watchlist before googling osb.I normally own some virgin. This reminds me why I should always have a spread of holdings. v. annoying. This is mixed news for the small banks. The takeout is at below 7x 2025 earnings (despite recent downgrade to forecast for 25 vs upgrade to 26). Takeouts in the old days were 12 to 15x. I guess this helps to fix the short term issues flyfisher mentioned - cheap Nationwide funding. So on the same multiple OSB is 780p. I still think OSB is a superior business to VMUK, but certainly more synergies buying VMUK. |
Posted at 02/3/2024 20:07 by apple53 I posted something on the STB chat in response to some intriguing points.You might thing it arrogant but someone might find it useful if I repost here. AND I would find it useful if anyone wanted to argue or add. Some of my knowledge is out-of-date, and some of my numbers merely educated guesses. Here goes: QUOTE I agree this is a great opportunity for investors. I don't agree with your view on rates or growth etc., and I wrote the following to remind myself of history and the investment case for these banks. Higher rates tend to benefit earnings, though much higher rates are typically thought likely to increase bad debt charges. Materially higher rates and a high recession risk is normally enough to hit multiples. [it is important you don't have silly regulators that require you to buy reams of government bonds at low interest rates - this is what killed SVB and, arguably, First Republic]. Overall, though, there isn't really any correlation between rates and multiples. 'Any growth' doesn't tend to drive the share price violently up. Balance sheet growth requires capital, and more than it used to under Basel 1/2. In the case of STB the drive for rapid growth probably hit the share price, as it required a dividend cut, and also because some shareholders are rightly scared of rapid growth in bank balance sheets. One of the clearest correlations (with causation) in banking is rapid growth and subsequent high (sometimes disastrous) bad debts. Bank investors 'normally' like modest balance sheet growth, faster growth in fee income, a low level of dealing income and an expectation of a falling cost income ratio. Historically, banks have traded at 8-15x forward eps. It is only in the past few years that 5x earnings has been considered normal, and this in Europe, but not the US, where 9-12x is more typical. What is doubly weird about the ridiculously low multiples is that UK banks are much much safer than they used to be. Equity capital ratios are 2.5-4x higher than in the noughties. [There is a downside to this - RoEs are lower, and incremental growth needs more incremental capital]. They are also encouraged to ex-ante provision (which is good as it helps to smooth provisioning across the cycle). Overall CoE should be lower. None of this means that banks are immune to property market collapses. Some (US) banks are over-exposed to commercial property (NYCB). This has been the cause of most bad debt crises (as opposed to the liquidity crisis post-Lehman). Resi mortgages are also at risk from a big increase in unemployment, double digit interest rates, 40% falls in value (each in isolation) or a milder combination of the 3. The other risk to banks is social media, which magnifies problems that used to swept under the carpet, such that issues which might have been manageable with a couple of year's retained earnings can now be enough to cause a run. STB is probably the weirdest example (and could be the cheapest bank in the developed world), but OSB stands out even more. STB is tiny; OSB merely small. STB is building a growth track record; OSB already has one. STB is modestly profitable; OSB is very profitable (for a modern bank). STB is modestly at risk from an increase in bad debts; OSB is highly cushioned - it has SUCH a low cost income ratio that its leverage to an increase in bad debts is almost the lowest in the industry. If it was 10x the size and based in the US it would trade at twice the valuation or more. I have no idea when this situation will 'normalise', but in the mean time these banks need to buy back their stock (and I would happily forgo some yield to fund this). UNQUOTE |
Posted at 05/1/2024 09:51 by pj84 Shore Capital: OSB shares below averageThere is ‘plenty more to go for’ when it comes to OSB (OSB) shares as the challenger bank’s valuation remains below the historic average, says Shore Capital. Analyst Gary Greenwood retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and a ‘fair value’ target price of 835p on the Citywire Elite Companies plus-rated stock, which rose 1.2% to 442p yesterday. ‘OSB shares have performed better of late, recovering much of the lost ground following the surprise profit warning in July last year,’ he said. ‘Nevertheless, valuation multiples remain well below historical averages and, with interest rates predicted to fall in the year ahead, we think the shares can maintain their positive momentum.’ Greenwood said the shares trade on a 2024 profit/net asset value of 0.8 times and a price to earnings of 4.1 times. The dividend yield is currently 9.8%. ‘There is currently 91% upside to our fair value of 835p which implies that there is still plenty more to go for,’ he said. |
Posted at 14/11/2023 19:24 by pj84 We sold this bank, then the shares lost 25pc – now we’ll buy againQuestor share tip: buy-to-let specialist does not deserve to be lumped in with lowly valued high street giants By Algy Hall 13 November 2023 • 6:00am In March, Questor advised readers to sell OSB and was right to do so – shares in the specialist buy-to-let mortgage lender have lost a quarter of their value since. This column is relieved to have sold before a profits warning in July that sent OSB shares tumbling. The lender disclosed a £180m hit because mortgage borrowers were refinancing more quickly. Broader investor unease about the banking sector, which prompted our advice to sell, has meanwhile persisted. Now, however, we’re recommending the shares again, guided by the investment decisions of some of the world’s best-performing fund managers. Ten of these professional investors – each among the top-performing 3pc of the 10,000 equity fund managers tracked by the financial publisher Citywire – own shares in OSB. As a result the stock is rated AA – just below a top AAA rating – by Citywire Elite Companies, which rates companies on the basis of their backing by the best-performing fund managers. What’s more, many of those investors have been adding to their stakes over the past few months. They include Matthew Tillett, who bought more shares for his Premier Miton UK Value Opportunities fund in July. Tillett took over the fund in November last year after delivering four times the market return over three years on the fund he ran before. He told his investors that shares in specialist lenders such as OSB were trading on valuations as low as those of Britain’s biggest banks, yet they were “less dependent on the interest rate environment to sustain high levels of profitability” Trading at just 0.6 times forecast book value, shares in OSB are close to the cheapest they have ever been on that measure and 30pc cheaper than when we advised readers to sell in March. A forecast dividend yield over the next 12 months that stood at 7.1pc when we sold has meanwhile climbed to 9.9pc – a level that suggests the market expects a cut. But a trading update earlier this month indicates that the bank may be putting its problems behind it. There was no worsening of the situation that caused that big hit to profits from earlier in the year, when OSB was burned by borrowers spending less time between fixed-rate mortgages on stop-gap “reversion&rdq Reassuringly, it left unchanged guidance for this year’s underlying “net interest margin” – the difference between the interest rates a bank earns on the loans that it makes and the rates it pays to depositors – at 2.6 percentage points. That would mark a recovery from the first half of the year, when the hit to profits resulted in a slump from 3 percentage points to 2. That’s not to downplay the difficult trading conditions for banks and the particular challenges posed by the buy-to-let market, in which OSB specialises. With interest rates starting to plateau, heightened competition between banks is curtailing rates on loans while the rates banks need to offer to attract depositors are rising. Increasing bad debts after the surge in mortgage costs, coupled with the impact of tightening regulation on the buy-to-let market, are adding to investors’ fears. But OSB appears to be coping well with the pressures. Alongside the maintained net interest margin guidance, the bank reported a 5pc increase in deposits in the three months to the end of September. But the biggest positive from the third quarter was lending growth. OSB reported that in the first nine months of the year it had achieved 7pc loan growth. This was previously the target for the whole of 2023 and guidance for the year has now been raised to 9pc. Its ability to win market share thanks to its specialist focus is a key long-term attraction. It is also a reason to think it could weather tougher markets better than most as the specialist focus is reflected in the bank’s strong reputation for risk management. On this front, there’s reassurance from low levels of problem loans and average rent-to-interest cover of 178pc on OSB loans and 154pc for its Charter Court Financial brand, which accounts for about 45pc of gross lending. Meanwhile, a scarcity of rental properties makes landlords well placed to pass rising interest costs on to tenants. OSB’s resilience should also be helped by its bias to professional landlords who use corporate structures to secure tax and property management advantages. This buy-to-let specialism keeps costs down compared with mainstream banks. OSB expects its costs to amount to around a third of its income this year, compared with more than half for many larger rivals. The branchless bank’s low-cost model underpins its attractive levels of return on tangible equity. Even after the profit hit in the first half of this year, analysts expect the metric to reach 15.2pc in 2023 before rebounding to the high teens from next year. It is not hard to see why, following the slump in the shares this year, top fund managers are betting that OSB’s valuation offers protection from further share price falls and the potential for significant gains should the third-quarter results prove to be a taste of things to come. Questor says: buy Ticker: OSB Share price at close: 347.2p |
Posted at 08/9/2023 18:11 by pj84 Key statsMarket capitalisation £1,442m Dividend yield 9.36% OSB profit warning reaction may be ‘excessive&rsq Share price falls in buy-to-let lender OSB Group (OSB) could be ‘excessive&rsq Moss holds the challenger bank in his £117m CT High Income (CHI) investment trust but said it had been a ‘key reason for the portfolio lagging the market’ in August following a profit warning. ‘The update described positive current trading for the company but did warn there would be a substantial hit to this year’s profit as a result of the rapid rise in interest rates,’ said Moss. The bank highlighted the rapid interest rate rises, which have changed borrower behaviour. ‘The move away from floating towards fixed interest rates is less profitable for OSB, hence the profit warning,’ said Moss. Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated OSB has indicated that the impact is likely to be around 30% of last year’s profits, or less than 10% of market capitalisation of the company pre-warning. ‘The loss should largely be restricted to this year, which, if true, would make the fall in the share price excessive,’ said Moss. ‘However, after an upset of this scale and nature, it would only be natural for investors to demand evidence of a successful recovery before reassessing and rerating the shares.’ OSB Group shares were trading at £3.22 on Thursday. |
Posted at 03/11/2022 07:17 by masurenguy OSB (LSE: OSB) is a lender specialising in professional buy-to-let and residential mortgages. The group is one of a handful of so-called challenger banks that emerged after the financial crisis. With a market capitalisation of around £1.8bn, it is relatively small compared to the big high street banks, which means it tends to fly under the radar of most investors. Its size has not held it back. Since 2016, the group’s loan book and value of customer deposits have nearly quadrupled in size. Meanwhile, operating profit has increased from £163m in 2016 to £465m.As profits have grown, OSB has been able to return more cash to investors. Its dividend per share more than doubled between 2016 and 2021 and is expected to hit 35p in 2023, giving a projected dividend yield of 8.3% on the current share price. Shares in OSB are also selling at what appears to be a dirt-cheap multiple of just 4.5 times forward earnings and a price/book (p/b) ratio of below one. The stock has been under pressure recently following the now-defunct mini-Budget at the end of September. As a specialist mortgage lender, OSB is highly exposed to higher mortgage rates and possible defaults if borrowers are struggling to meet their repayments. It seems likely the business will have to deal with loan losses as interest rates rise, but it should also benefit from higher interest rates. The company reported a net interest margin (the difference between the rate it pays to depositors and charges borrowers) of 302 basis points in the first half of 2022, up from 268 basis points in the same period last year. As this margin expands, it should feed through into OSB’s bottom line. On top of its rising profit margins, OSB also has a healthy balance sheet with a tier 1 equity capital ratio (a measure of banking solvency) of 18.9%. That’s far above the regulatory and industry minimum which averages the low double-digits. As dividend stocks go, OSB appears to tick all the boxes." Moneyweek: 2 November 2022 |
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