One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 23/1/2019 13:28

Afternoon folks,

Appears to me that this is v similar to the Orchard (now Sony) advance that OMIP received in 2014 for $2m. Basically cash up front for services. What’s not to like?

I understand that confidentiality is important in such deals as they are operating in a competitive space & I’d envisage the door may close moving forward if they were to disclose certain aspects. That’s the benefit of a private competitor vs a public company as they are not subject to such disclosures.

This money simply adds to the net cash position of c.£4m.

IMHO an EV of £2.5m is simply peanuts when you consider the iP & recurring revenue model (streaming revenues) they have.

Kind regards
GHF

[dibs61] 23/1/2019 13:17

So you guys were correct. It was simply a cash advance from a distributor, prob Orchard, so it was NOT a new contract. Poor show and no wonder it got such a limp response from the market as they simply needed WC.

[yump] 21/1/2019 12:56

Thanks. I guess we might find out in due course - if Orchard is well known, then not sure why this RNS is so bare, so I'd guess at something new.

[yump] 21/1/2019 09:56

What dates are you talking about for previous advances - only this is the first one announced that I've seen ?

Presumably its a different publisher - perhaps that's why its announced.

[harrogate] 21/1/2019 09:23

Yes I think this is just a poorly worded RNS that is about an advance from Orchard - as you say not large by previous advances and the use of the word contract seems misleading for something that is probably in the normal course of their business. More cash though - but they are not short of fire power just short of deals!

[apfindley] 21/1/2019 09:08

I don't see it as that large, for years we've received advanced payments from the orchard for similar figures and higher.My point was just that its not so much as a contract win, more just advanced royalty payments. Still good news.And also, on the other front, still here anticipating progress on the tcat, which could be lucrative.

[apfindley] 21/1/2019 07:18

Good news. But in a way its being allowed to spend tomorrow's money today.

[yump] 10/1/2019 15:35

Hi GHF

Haven't got anywhere near your level of investment but did get a fair few while it was really in the doldrums.

Hopefully they might be able to get rights on low multiples and if we know who owned the rights, it might be possible to figure out the multiple from one of the royalty sales sites, even if OMIP don't publish it.

I think MI did at some point mention exploitation of tracks/soundtracks within the movie industry. I noted that is an active part of Hypgnosis strategy and wonder if OMIP now have enough contacts for it to have an outside chance of a windfall at some point in the next few years. Although chances of an OMIP owned track coinciding with the brief for a movie are pretty small, but at least I think OMIP are in the right era for potential movie soundtracks - there seem to be a lot of 'retro' tracks in movies.

Just musing there a bit !

PS
Yes, the dilution would still leave a very low rating on 900K.

[glasshalfull] 10/1/2019 12:50

Afternoon yump

Prompted to log in having received an email alert to a post on the OMIP thread. An unusual occurrence. Many thanks for the link.

Share price down (-50%) since the end August 2018. Gone from 10p level to 5p today...with the 6p placing responsible for a (-40%) retrace, with macro events, lack of newsflow & illiquidity in the market during December responsible from the most recent fall from the 6p area to 5p.

I had a short call with MI at the turn of the year. Like yourself I expected they probably had deals lined up following the September raise, & in light of the team attending to brief investors at Mello London.

Anyway, I was reassured that MI & team have not felt the need to go after any deal simply to have something newsworthy. A deal for deals sake! He also understood the frustration investors have as essentially save for a short but positive trading statement there has been radio silence for the last few months.

AIU they have made approaches to acquire but he stressed they will not pay over the odds. I’ve spoken with MI for neigh on 9 years & he always stressed paying a fair price throughout...and I don’t contend it will be any different this time.

He also mentioned that they are working on other projects & expects there to be a ramp up in newsflow in 2019.

When I last looked the m/cap was c.£6.5m & I envisage they’ll have c.£4m net cash...so existing business valued at peanuts (EV £2.5m) despite back on a growth trajectory & delivering positive cashflow as the growth in music streaming will have benefitted their library of > 250,000 tracks. They indicated positive trading which was in-line. This should equate to delivery of £600k PBT for year ended Oct 2018 before costs of the placing.

Also worth reiterating that Panmure previously had £900k pencilled in for 2019 prior to the September fundraise.

I’ve picked up stock between 4.1p-5.5p in recent months...not all the reported trades are sales & often stock available at the bid price.

In summary, I don’t believe MI would have made a play for the big-time & diluted himself significantly from 50% a few years ago to c.20% unless confident in the opportunity.

I originally invested here when the shares were 1p on PLUS markets & they rose to the heady heights of 20p shortly after the move to AIM. Yes, last few years have been v difficult with the tap to the download market turned off overnight BUT the continued growth of streaming, development of TCAT & with considerable cash in the bank & available to draw down, will hopefully find OMIP developing annuity style revenues via acquisitions in the composer/ music publishing market to augment the performance rights they currently have.

We’ll all be in a better position to assess the strategy when they announce the first acquisition(s). As for timeframe, well I’d hope to hear some news prior to results in March.

Disclosure
As usual, talking my own book.
I own >1% equity

Kind regards,
GHF

[yump] 10/1/2019 07:45

Hmmm. Thought that RNS might be something, but 3 months since the fundraising and nothing. Given that the fundraising cannot have been on the spur of the moment and that they must have been eyeing up a few possible rights purchases, otherwise they wouldn't have done the fundraising, its a pretty poor show.

I suspect they are going to pay over the odds for rights and as a result the arbitrage opportunity is not that exciting.

Having a load of 'heavyweight' people on board doesn't necessarily mean that their timing will be good - they may have just got carried away by the same enthusiasm that pi's get when everyone is interested in a particular market and buys near the top. eg. housing.

Getting very tired of having to put away AIM shares for a long time after they turn out to be nothing to shout about.

I suppose will just have to wait to see if streaming turns out to be a money spinner. Pure gamble on the likelihood of music market growth + streaming adding up to something. In theory that combination looks promising. Perhaps TCAT will be a 'must-have' and generate shedloads.

Or perhaps the number of words in the RNS's is inversely proportional to the likely success. That seems to be a common trait of many AIM shares.

[yump] 20/12/2018 23:34

Well I know what the cynic in me thinks, but perhaps that's the result of meeting several 'whistleblowers' from amongst the great and the not-so-good from the City over the years (not to do with OMIP specifically though).

[dibs61] 20/12/2018 14:04

SPREADEX taken a stake here - just over 3% - 1% of which is a CFD. Surely they are not betting on the shares going lower from here??

Any why are they even bothering with OMIP in the first place, such an illiquid stock. Although I suppose the stake is taken on behalf of clients?

[yump] 20/12/2018 09:30

Well I certainly wouldn't be selling at this level as it now looks fairly cheap, even with assumed adjusted profit figures as a result of the share issue and its costs. eps around 4-5p ?

Unfortunately can't see any reason to buy either though, as I can't see any circumstances under which profits are going to surprise, certainly not in the next year or so. Also I'm not sure whether its going to be possible to extrapolate any meaningful figures from a rights purchase. It depends entirely on whether they state the level of existing royalties from the rights purchased. Then at least there's a starting point, assuming they can add something to that figure.

[yump] 14/12/2018 14:30

I'm afraid I've lost confidence here. Assuming that they buy artist royalties on a multiple of 7, that means roughly £130k income for every £1mln spent, which is about 13% return, so it seems unlikely any seller would let them have the royalties that cheaply. Then subtract the costs of each deal and the interest.

Obviously the interest is only payable on the loans, but say its at 7%, that leaves about 6% for OMIP ie. about £60,000 from each £1mln spent.

Anyone ?

[rp19] 14/12/2018 13:32

Stock available to buy at sub 5p, so a decent way below the placing price. Hopefully some positive news will arrive in advance of the FY results (last year end of Feb, altho not sure why it took 4 months to get them out).

[yump] 05/12/2018 13:04

Hi GHF,

What do you make of any calcs. on potential returns ? I'm still in the process (bit busy atm) of trying to work out likely returns on each £million spent at different multiples of the existing royalties, minus the interest... for starters just assuming no quick rise in the royalties, although a higher return is obviously the plan.

[glasshalfull] 30/11/2018 13:21

Courtesy to mention that I’ve added to my position today. Stock available v close to the quoted bid price. The 5.07p trades are all purchases.

Kind regards,
GHF

[glasshalfull] 29/11/2018 20:36

OMIP

Evening folks. Whirlwind few days.

Mello London was an overwhelming success with the investment community appreciative of “Davidosh” & excellent team in organising such a content rich event with fantastic speakers, presentations & exhibitors. There was something for every investor.

Michael Infante & team attended the event to provide a presentation but unfortunately they weren’t running a stand. Perhaps something to consider next time, as I witnessed a better appreciation in those companies that did so. The APC stand, for example, demonstrated products, had their CEO & a Divisional head engage with the investors who then left with Mojito, Kir Royale or Gin lollipops. This resulted in a jam packed presentation, considerable social media comment & a share price +8% in the last few days. Photo of the stand available via the link below.



I volunteered to assist at Mello (it’s run by investors) so only had time for a quick snap of Michael’s presentation which I posted on Twitter. (See link below)



That said, Michael delivered an excellent presentation covering the evolution of the company & rationale behind the recent placing. He also explained that the composer/ music publishing market is fragmented & great opportunity for OMIP to acquire in this space to augment the performance rights they currently have. There’s more info regarding the various opportunities contained in the placing document

Overall, an assured presentation & I’m certain this is first of many steps at improving investor engagement as the company ramps up in scale. I’ve suggested the use of PI World who have been excellent in providing investors with company presentations & updates on results or major announcements as a means to get the story out. The company are certainly receptive to the idea.

As for shareprice, I wouldn’t read anything into the tick down. I simply put it down to poor markets & a drift in the absence of news. There have only been a few share trades recently & OMIP are certainly not alone in observing a decline in the share price. The first news of acquisitions will offer the opportunity to evaluate the new strategy & determine the multiple they are likely to pay for rights.

Kind regards,
GHF

[yump] 29/11/2018 15:59

Well that didn't exactly create a flurry of buying did it ?

[advfn_sales] 21/11/2018 16:31

Here is your chance to meet with OMIP:

Using this unique discount code, ADVFN25, you will be able to get £25 off at Mello London 2018, a 2 day investor conference from the 26th – 27th November 2018 at the Clayton Hotel, Chiswick, London.



Tickets are normally priced at £99 for two days and £79 for one.

Type in ADVFN25 as the discount code.

Many Thanks and take advantage of this premium offer.

See you there.

[davidosh] 18/11/2018 23:09

Here is the full two day programme schedule for MelloLondon including One Media IP



It is jam packed full of about 75 company presentations, lots of top quality speakers and panel sessions plus workshops to help with investment style and techniques etc.

The pre event fun starts on the Sunday evening with a dinner and investor quiz hosted by John Lee but the main conference begins on Monday 26th November at 9am through to Tuesday 27th in the evening so do come and join us as there are still 97 tickets left...



See you there.

[yump] 14/11/2018 16:23

Well I've still got a stake on the basis that if it does what it looks like it could do in theory, I'll be happy with the gains, but I can't work it out enough to pencil stuff in for myself - which I'm never overly keen on.

Yes agree with you on weighted average it will be decent growth, despite transaction costs and with the momentum comment.

So without any contribution from acquisitions, next year would be 0.67p - based on that original 900K forecast.

I might try and work out some very simple figures for earnings per £1mln of acquired rights, depending on multiple paid and interest paid on loan. Good excuse for not doing DIY - "I'll have to work on our investments quite a bit this weekend". Now where's the Hobgoblin ?

[microscope] 14/11/2018 16:03

I don't blame you yump, it's a share where I think you have to take a view at this point, whether you believe they can deliver the right acquisitions. Obviously my view is different from your's but it takes two to make a market as they say.

The metric is 'weighted number of average shares in issue' for the period, so the new shares will only count for the last six weeks or so of the financial year to end October. When weighted it will be something like 92 million for the year.

If they doubled the interim profit it would be about 425k, so about .46p eps on 92 million shares. I pencilled in for 500k as they talked of momentum at interims or about .55p.
As the placing costs will be exceptionals they won't impact the ebitda figure.

Then they have twelve months to find earnings enhancing acquisitions that will make some contribution to 2018-19. I don't think you can ignore cash as it is intended to be the driver of future profit growth, via acquisitions. Just my view.