One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[nextlink] 25/9/2018 17:17

Having held since Ofex days and digested recent announcements I wonder where we are heading. At the beginning of the year we saw a welcome recovery in the sp with an indication of significant growth in the years ahead. At around the same time Michael Grade joined as a Director at a very favorable share price. The best thing to happen to ITV in 2009 was Grade leaving, it's share price says it all. When he left it was around 30 pence. peaking at 280 pence in 2015 and today it is still around 150 pence. Now at the end of August we see a placing at 6 pence, loan notes and options galore at 6 pence. It is the way of the world, but it looks as if most private investors have been thrown under the bus. I will hold what i have and see where this goes, I may be pleasantly surprised, given the war chest they have amassed. I just hope Michael Grade doesn't do an ITV on One Media, a company that has until now always been mindful of it's shareholders, whatever their stake.

[microscope] 25/9/2018 13:09

From the latest RNS: "The Company’s issued share capital is now 135,603,699 which also represents the total number of voting rights..... ....In addition, further to the Company’s announcement which was published at 7.00 am on 31 August 2018, the Company has today drawn down the Tranche 1 Loan Notes totalling £1,900,000 and the Company has issued a total of 20,833,333 BGF Options and a further 10,000,000 options in relation to the Placing." I'm guessing the options are at 6p but I don't know that for certain. I had missed that last bit, another 30 million plus shares from options potentially on the horizon, then. Might there be yet more related to future drawdowns?

[yump] 16/9/2018 20:33

I don't think I would be buying at this level, if I was not in already, although I've waited for some shares to go back to placing price before and they haven't ! I guess that just depends on the perceived quality of the business. Fortunately and somewhat luckily I bought a chunk when they were in the doldrums, so although it would be frustrating, I can put up with it pottering along at this level for however long it takes to see what results appear. Still grates imagining that I could have sold at 11p and bought back now. Perhaps, some wise folk would have put 2 and 2 together and reading between the lines, would have concluded that Grade and Dunleavy would not have bought in without a grander plan than the existing one. Given that acquiring rights has always been the way to expand, I suppose a placing was very much on the cards. Its just the placing price that is a pain. Your calcs. give quite a cheap rating for this year. I can't imagine a big jump next year, purely because I can't imagine that generating revenue from new rights acquired is going to ramp up that quickly. A question for email perhaps, although I imagine 'it depends' will be the answer. I suppose if the publishing channels are waiting and the tracks are prepared, then it could be quick ? It is the age of instant gratification after all and I wouldn't mind some here...

[yump] 08/9/2018 17:47

Actually on rethinking, yes if the shares approach 10p then I think it will be for the reason that the business strategy is working and that would give more reason for investors to hold for longer. Also, if its working, then its unlikely to stop or slow suddenly, unlike say a contract based business or one that requires constant sales efforts. Assuming someone doesn't invent the next streaming... although I can't imagine what that might be - possible a nano-chip in your brain that receives wirelessly transmitted tracks. Time to write some SCI-FI in my spare time perhaps... Clearly not a hyped or heavily traded tech. stock, so much less likely to attract the quick buck brigade ! Perhaps evidenced by the fact that it only dropped from 12p to 10p after the big rise, before the placing.

[glasshalfull] 08/9/2018 13:47

Afternoon microscope & yump. Thanks for your updates. I’ve a few minutes so opportunity for quick response. Yump - You pose a good query. V technical & beyond my ability to answer. With downloads you’ll be well aware that once the track was purchased that was it, a one time only sale. I know they have tried various methods/ algorithms with regard the track ability of streaming, but far more complex to tie down. Think beneficial for you to contact the One Media team who are approachable & im sure they’d be happy to answer your queries & provide a better response to this ham-fisted effort. Microscope - I’m still a PI with excellent brokers. I engage more frequently with the wider investment community these days & perhaps that’s why you think I may be an institutional based investor. In respect of the book-build, my brokers contacted Panmure and placed an order on my behalf. I don’t wish to be too specific on a public forum but happy to confirm it was for a material amount of stock, in excess of 500k but below 2 million shares. If an investor was looking to invest a v small amount in such an opportunity or uses an online platform for their broker, then they wouldn’t get the opportunity in the bookbuild. That’s the value of establishing an account with good brokers. In respect of any lock-in, existing & new investors are simply subscribing for shares that will be issued on 24th/ 25th Sept from memory. There is no lock-in for most placings or issues - save for the mention in the RNS in respect of NineLives who are subscribing for £125k of stock & are subject to a 12 month orderly market arrangement following admission. In theory an existing investor could slice their holding if they’ve obtained shares in the bookbuild. To clarify, I have not sold a single share in OMIP recently, but instead believe it an excellent opportunity to add to my existing holding & I’d also imagine that I would not be invited to take part in such opportunities if I acted in the practice of selling down an existing holding on these circumstances. As for dumping shares if/when they approach 10p...perhaps one could look at it another way... new/existing holders may look to ADD to their holdings if MI & team are delivering. I try & not overcomplicate things. If OMIP generate the earnings growth that we’ve always hoped, then the share price will take care of itself. Hope this assists. Kind regards, GHF

[yump] 08/9/2018 12:10

I can't find much of a mention of lock-in either, so will have to hope that the new investors are not going to be prone to dumping shares as soon as they approach 10p. I guess that depends entirely on delivery of results now - that is the only thing that would underpin a decent rise imo, in the hope of continuing increasing profits. Any sign of not much growth and I guess any sort of rise of 50%+ will see profits taken.

[microscope] 07/9/2018 18:49

Fascinating read GHF, as ever your posts encourage interest and reaction. Not least of which is whether you are yourself a pi and/or institutional based investor these days. I know you will understand the potential frustration of long term holders who were not able to participate in the funding, while some it seems were.I don't mean that in any way as a criticism of yourself - as you say you bought higher. too. Knowing me I might have missed it, but is there any lock-in? It does look as though a few sales may be people cashing in previously held shares at higher levels to fund their purchases. I have many other thoughts and questions about likely future direction which I will probably return to if time permits, but for now suspect that gravity being what it is, may guide the share price ever closer to the placing price as investors feel reluctant to pay a premium to the 'better-informed' investors.I am intrigued for certain, but need to delve a lot deeper first.

[yump] 07/9/2018 18:18

Thanks for the contribution GHF - glad to see you're still around. I would love to know what MI thinks is the ultimate revenue of streaming per £1mln of rights owned compared to previous income from downloads etc. ie. a percentage of previous, rather than an actual figure. Obviously early days but a guesstimate would be interesting. I assume streaming is more trackable than downloading, in that downloading is a one-off after which the download is kind of 'gone with the wind' and can find its way onto all sorts of websites. With streaming I guess you can just record it, but from my knowledge I think that can be protected or interfered with in the stream, plus as you have to have some sort of recording software running, the majority of people won't be bothered. Also smooth fast streaming is more difficult to accomplish reliably than just downloading a track, so it presumably limits the number of sites able to gain credibility with users. Hope I'm not talking out of my hat - will have to email OMIP and double check a few things I think.

[michaelmouse] 06/9/2018 17:08

hTTp://michae1mouse.blogspot.com/2018/09/if-music-be-food-of-love-play-on.html For those interested, I've opened up my twitter account again to all-comers @michae1mouse. Cheers.

[michaelmouse] 06/9/2018 08:34

hTTp://onemediaip.com/news/industry-update-summer-2018/

[yump] 04/9/2018 14:49

Thought I'd try and pick the good points out as well, amongst the plethora of stuff quoted about the market, there are some specific things more directly relating to OMIP, than the 15 year market predictions. These are a few snippets. Be interested in comments: "It is expected that the availability of ad-supported on-demand streaming will result in dramatic growth for streaming services in emerging markets." So where are OMIP in that market ? Not sure. "The Directors believe that the growth of streaming is extremely good news for owners of back catalogues and has revitalised the long tail of music through the creation and distribution of playlists on online music stores and streaming services. Playlists allow users to discover new artists, both nascent artists or established artists who are new to the user, and can increase the revenues available to owners (and OMIP) who might otherwise have found that following their initial release their song stopped generating revenues as time went on. (my bold) The lower price point from streaming services compared with purchasing a back catalogue in physical or digital format is also helping to revitalise this music. (As with other small spends, people don't notice themselves spending) (my words) Tracks recorded before 2015 accounted for 55.3 per cent. of all music streaming in the UK in 2017 with 300 tracks from this period having been played over 10 million times across the course of the year, which illustrates the revitalisation of the back catalogue. In addition, catalogue songs (those released more than 18 months ago) accounted for 70 per cent. of all streaming volumes in 2015, but only represented 50 per cent. of physical album sales and downloads. As all these seem to be in OMIP's favour, I suppose this just comes around to how successful the choice of rights purchasing is...

[yump] 04/9/2018 14:23

Shame we couldn't get any shares at 2.5p, then the 6p would give a decent average. Unless they post stunning results at year end, I guess 12p is not going to be reached anytime soon (as in the next few years ?) Although I'm still in profit having bought more when it was in the doldrums, it is becoming very tiresome to say the least, to find that while you're looking at a turnaround share price rise, you suddenly find yourself with 40% less paper value than you had a few weeks ago. Improved results and a reasonable rating seemed certain based on previous forecasts. Now, who the heck knows and who the heck knows how many placees will sell out when they get the chance of a quick profit. Mind you, who the heck is going to buy in any size until there's some signs that earnings per share will give a decent rating. I'm now resigned to yet another long wait, or possibly OMIP being bought out if it appears they have something unique. I note with interest the values quoted in other acquisitions, in the placing details. Is that a coincidence or is it just to smooth existing shareholder waters (it doesn't do it for me). Am I ever going to invest in another media company ? No. Not had one that has delivered and quite a few that tanked, while spinning positive PR, which is of course what they are all good at in the first place.

[harrogate] 03/9/2018 14:05

Hi. I have been a shareholder for years and the question you ask is very valid - but I think impossible to answer. Many of the smaller catalogues they bought originally I suspect had no revenue stream as they weren't even digitised and much work went into these catalogues by OMIP to do that and prepare them for online sales. So you have the lead times, the low level nature of the music, the fact that we get the revenue in $ and the rate has been all over in the period in question and then the impact of the move from download to steaming which was clearly negative in the short term but could be beneficial longer term. So the calculation of return on spend is very tricky. What must be true though is that if they are moving up the foodchain on value of rights these rights they buy with the new warchest will likely already have a revenue stream in place. If that is the case you would have thought that for example a catalogue that produces £1m couldn't be bought for £10m or everyone would do it for a 10% return - unless OMIP add value through distribution or developing the catalogue by other means - I don't know any of the answers but it will be fascinating to see what happens now.

[yump] 03/9/2018 11:05

Been doing a bit of digging/thinking/rambling on the subject of the value of rights. Presumably a big proportion of OMIP rights can earn for a long time and this may be borne out by the value of intangible assets (rise and fall) on the balance sheet. This is a big like looking for a black cat in a dark room, but better than nothing. Could possibly assume that at some point, the ratio of the intangible assets vs. the revenue, might allow some predictive revenue calcs. ? If an asset becomes less valuable over time (because there is a finite date on which the asset will no longer earn), then would expect to see decreases. On the balance those assets are about £3.4mln and they've been at that level since 2014. In 2013 it was about 1.8mln. So 1.6mln was added in the year to Oct 2014, which coincides with a spend of about the same on the Point Classics catalogue + other. Unfortunately shortly afterwards revenue dropped. Currently then, £3.4mln of assets is generating £2.5mln of revenue. Presumably the issues moving from downloads to streaming is the reason why the increase in assets has not led to an increase in revenue; so far. So, although this doesn't help much yet, there's no obvious relationship between intangible asset value and revenue. However it looks as if OMIP already have approx. double the value of rights that they had in 2013 when revenue was £2.6mln (intangible assets at £1.8mln). Forecast this year was for £2.8mln revenue. Given the very high gearing of profits to increases in revenue, perhaps the dilution of shares will not end up being a dilution in earnings at all. Second half is going to be very critical in assessing whether having all this cash to buy rights is a gamble, or whether its based on solid foundations. Maybe with streaming, it needs double the rights value to create the same revenue as back in 2010-2-3. But if the existing rights are starting to generate accelerating revenue, then timing could be spot on. I guess they could have tried to raise money to buy rights back in 2015-7, but that would probably not have gone down well, although the rights might have been cheaper to buy, as there were obviously doubts in the industry about how things would pan out. I was thinking all this to myself, but thought might as well post it.

[pireric] 01/9/2018 12:53

To be fair, I was looking when this was at 12.3p ask price, Michael, so my interpretation of the market price at the time was that it included quite a bit of value for TCAT

[microscope] 01/9/2018 12:44

Re my previous post and reading through everything again, I do think the loan notes may have been fully subscribed as well, was just a bit confused by the total amount raised, and the wording. But please don't take that as gospel, and dyor, I'm not absolutely certain either way even now.

[michaelmouse] 01/9/2018 12:34

Not sure why that would be a reason for not buying pireric? I look at TCAT as a possible bonus in future, but only that. Their main business is exploiting primarily music intellectual property rights and it's how well they can do that which should be the investment consideration? Certainly, recent results confirm that they can make a profit and decent cashflow from existing rights. Will they make shrewd purchases and exploit them fully in the future? Let's hope so.

[pireric] 01/9/2018 11:26

I'm a bit more muted around the TCAT opportunity, which is what has put me off buying here before. if they can snap up some of the largest players in the industry and yet not generate that much revenue from it (and I appreciate it hasn't fully ramped yet), then how big is the addressable market?

[michaelmouse] 01/9/2018 11:05

hTTp://michae1mouse.blogspot.com/2018/09/exciting-prospects-but-with-added-risk.html

[apfindley] 31/8/2018 22:13

Yump It's not so simple as that. The value of rights and the revenues varies considerably. Ompp/omip have a huge catalogue, but many won't be played too often, and the ones played frequently are of such an age that their value is much less than for example current chart hits. I'm hoping with the ammount of cash raised, omip will finally tap into purchasing higher value, higher revenue material. Also I'd like to have an update on TCAT and see some of the funds go towards pushing that into mainstream usage, or to stake its place as an industry standard.

[yump] 31/8/2018 20:57

Well I can do all the market research for myself and all the details of who has subscribed to what don't interest me in the least. For all I know its just a plaything to these 'big hitters'. What would be nice to know is the potential return on each £1mln spent on rights and in what timescale. Perhaps there's a neat formula that they've applied ? Presumably I could find that out by seeing what the value of their existing rights is and dividing that into the current revenue. At the moment, its just a 'trust us' gamble which you would think, given all the contacts and brains behind it now, would be going to make some serious revenue. But perhaps someone can quote me a very successful company that has grown from a small base, when it had a load of big names involved at the start... The most successful ones I can think of started with either students, housewives, or garden shed inventors.