On The Beach Share Discussion Threads

[recut more] 06/3/2021 09:24

Seems a bad day for travel stocks, a few are down, Jet2 down 3.1% easyJet down 4.8% TUI down 5.3%, they'll just bounce back up next week.

[peterninefive] 05/3/2021 14:50

On a day of good holiday news OTB appoints Justine Greening and the price plummets. Presumably a reflection of her previous competence as a minister.
OTB Board - what the hell were you thinking of?

[boonkoh] 18/2/2021 15:36

Having sat on the sidelines, I now think I'm going to keep sitting on the sidelines for a while. Two things on my mind :OTB fortunes dependent on open travel for summer. But looking unlikely. Why would airline bosses do a massive PR push now, writing letters, etc unless they believe Boris has decided to keep travel tight this summer.Bond yields rising. Will hit the sectors with highest PE multiples, due to risk free rate discount valuation models. Will see tech shares drop in value. OTB will be caught up in tech, even though it is not highly valued on PE terms. Rising/sinking tide lifts/drops all ships.

[boonkoh] 11/2/2021 14:05

I don't think it is mothballed. Govts will be under pressure to allow tourism this summer to protect the industry.We'll know the UK stance in Boris announcement next week on the pathway out of lockdown.But suspect the fine details and actual confirmation of summer will need to wait till Mar, Apr. Until then, uncertainty will cause OTB price to remain weak.

[john09] 11/2/2021 12:49

Yep I’m not sure whey this stock isnt getting absolutely battered. It’s completely mothballed

[boonkoh] 11/2/2021 11:11

Indeed, big dump by CEO in Dec is the major red flag for me, why I hadn't jumped in yet since OTB has been on my radar since Nov.Still, price is looking more attractive now.However, if European summer holiday season really is not viable, I can see this going back down to 250p, or even lower. Need to dig into whether govt will cave into demands from travel sector. And not just UK govt, but Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, etc etc...

[boonkoh] 10/2/2021 23:43

Ah, just saw a new broker note out today, FY21 forecast of 0p EPS vs latest consensus of 5p. Stifel is the broker name I think. Blames uncertain travel outlook for the summer season. FY22 EPS forecast looks like no change in expectations.

[mauricemonkey] 10/2/2021 14:09

BTFD.
I'm just gonna buy every 20% fall with an equal amount. Over a year of cash in the bank and the world getting immunised. People are already waking up to the fact that we'll be vaccinating ourselves at least annually from now on. Not long before holidays return and these guys get back to growth.

[tomps2] 15/1/2021 10:01

On the Beach #OTB mentioned by Ben Mckeown, Investment Director at Dowgate, when discussing opportunities.

hxxps://www.piworld.co.uk/2021/01/15/piworld-interview-ben-mckeown-dowgate-capital/

OTB: 16m17s

[grahamburn] 18/12/2020 17:55

There is a possibility - and that 's all it is, a possibility - that the CEO's sale might have been to meet demand from potential new long term holders.

[edwards9] 18/12/2020 08:05

See yesterdays post close RNS: CEO's family trust ditching 3.9m shares (40% of their holding).

[sphere25] 14/12/2020 12:26

It's interesting when we look at some of the valuations to see what they are pricing in when we experience a left field event from which great uncertainty stems.

The market appears to be looking way out to at least 2023 here:


"On The Beach valuation doesn’t reflect Covid-19 damage

Results from online travel agent On The Beach (OTB) were in line but damage done in the pandemic is not being reflected in the valuation, says Jefferies.

Analyst Becky Lane retained her ‘underperform’ recommendation and target price of 310p on the shares, which were trading at 371p on Thursday after it revealed a £42m Covid-19 hit this year.

Although results were in line with the pre-close announcement, Lane said ‘we continue to think On The Beach’s model struggles to gain share in distressed environments and data suggests brand damage from refund experiences and growing online competition’.

‘We think recovered full year 2023 22x price/earnings…; does not adequately reflect this,’ she said."


You'd think the likes of OTB and JET2 would come out on the other side well, but the valuations look a tad stretched and rather optimistic imo. The delivery has to be near flawless, but that's where the bar appears to be set.

Perhaps the bullish festive hat isn't quite placed properly on said head.

All imo

*UPDATE 17/12/2020*

And then...

A secondary placing followed with 2.5% of the shares wanting to be sold. Perhaps the views above weren't too outlandish afterall.

[melody9999] 24/11/2020 23:06

Took an opening position early today.

Myrmatt - did you read the TU of 9/11/20:

· On 6 November the Group had cash of £44m, excluding customer prepayments which are held in a ring-fenced trust account. This cash figure will further increase as we continue to receive monies from airlines for cancelled flights where OTB has already provided customer refunds

· The Group has access to a £75m credit facility which is undrawn

-- As a reminder the Group has a zero revenue cash burn of GBP2m per month reduced by trading volumes

So OTB have cash for almost 2 years, and a credit facility that would allow them to keep the lights on for another 3 years if they were able to draw.....assuming ZERO REVENUE.

But the reality is that revenue will build as we come out of COVID.

[john09] 21/10/2020 13:50

This could get interesting if it slips below £2 could be a good long time buy eventually. I had one trade on it months ago.

[onjohn] 27/7/2020 08:48

Travel companies have since reported a spike in cancellations to tourist hotspots including France, Greece, Italy and Croatia. On Friday, France recorded 1,130 new Covid-19 cases – almost three times the average at the start of June. And Croatia has recorded almost three times as many cases per capita as Britain over the past two weeks

[john09] 02/7/2020 22:18

Chart about to wobble