Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[hyperboreus] 12/7/2018 07:12

Another investor evening jobby, Colin really must have enjoyed the canapes:



Joking aside it is a complete change of tack from what has gone on before but it does make me wonder exactly why they feel it necessary to have another one only 11 weeks after the one in May.

Pleased to see that you have snapped out of your depression that you were clearly experiencing on the 28 June barry! 😂

[leedslad001] 10/7/2018 18:19

Time we had some good news here

[barrywhit] 10/7/2018 17:23

Late trade 250k @ 12.5p.....LSE have it listed @ 13.23 on the 9th....so a buy from yesterday...

[barrywhit] 10/7/2018 16:36

Hi Leeds,

Some one has been buying up all the sells, tight on stock now I would imagine and there may be some good news before Results, always were a bit of a leaky company...fingers crossed going forward...

[leedslad001] 10/7/2018 16:04

Why the rise today

[jeevsje] 06/7/2018 19:30

Do you have a link to the article please?

[hyperboreus] 06/7/2018 18:44

Well well have I missed some mega news recently?

Absolutely no idea what Megan Boxall who seemingly writes fictional articles for the Investors Chronicle is on though:

'Omega Diagnostic (ODX) recently gained £30m of investment from a large Chinese medical equipment investor and sold its infectious diseases business.'

You couldn't make it could you for company with a current market cap of £15.74m? 🤓

[bomber13] 03/7/2018 12:23

Yes sales , and the CEO intimated at the investor evening that the gross margin would be around 65% , which hopefully means net margins well into double-digits ? According to the latest report and accounts ( March , 2017 ) , Omega's capitalised development costs for Allersys were only £5m . Allersys was also attributed the £1.8m grant from the Scottish Enterprise Board in August , 2016 .

[arthur_lame_stocks] 03/7/2018 11:57

So 2% of the market is E13m. Presumably this is sales not profit although I imagine margins will be quite high. Did ODX start this business from scratch and how much are they spending to get to the point when they can win this market share? It seems like a lot of money to put into something that isn't going to result in fantastic profits.

[bomber13] 03/7/2018 11:50

Interesting background reading FYI on the Allersys business care of the recently released Immunodiagnostics Annual Report . Omega's market share aspirations for Allersys of 1% to 2% of a Euro650m market by Years 3 - 5 would seem to be quite realistic , and hopefully rather conservative -

Allergy
Our recent agreement with Omega Diagnostics PLC gives
IDS the global exclusive distribution rights to 51 automated
allergy tests. These are already CE marked and will be branded
IDS Allersys.
The global market for IVD testing is around €650m, with the
European market size estimated at around €250m. The market
is dominated by Phadia who have a 70% market share, however
they generally focus on high-volume laboratories. We believe
the IDS Allersys offering for small to medium-size laboratories
has substantial advantages versus Phadia’s offering due to
our smaller analyser footprint and random access capabilities.
The key barrier to entry in this market is the sheer number of
assays and allergy screens which are needed to be competitive.
Phadia offers assay tests for over 650 different allergens, with
related screening tests. We believe that a panel of at least 100
of the most common tests is needed to gain a foothold in the
field and Omega are continuing to develop the additional assays.

[bomber13] 02/7/2018 15:59

A most intriguing statement from Omega this morning , which clearly hints that more announcements are imminent .

And where and what shape will these announcements be ?

Perhaps their investor evening held on Monday , 21st May gave us some clues -

1) Pune - the expected sale or closure of the loss-making Pune manufacturing facility in India is due any day now .

2) Food Intolerance - Omega has been looking at all options for creating value from this business , particularly in the USA . As the number of partner companies in the USA went from 3 to 2 last year , Omega is actively trying to open up new sales channels , including selling directly to consumers . Therefore , there is every chance new partnership / distributor deals are in the offing . An outright sale of the US business was not discussed at the investor evening , but , given the company's wording of its recent statements , perhaps this cannot be ruled out .

Omega is also very keen to expand its food intolerance business into China , which is reckoned to be as big a potential market as the USA over time . The CEO did allude to being in contract negotiations with a trusted Chinese partner at the meeting , so an announcement to that effect could be due soon .

3) Visitect - Omega is in the registration process for its very exciting manual point of care Visitect HIV test in 6 countries , but has only appointed one dedicated distributor in Nigeria so far . Therefore , more distribution agreements in other countries are expected to be signed , and announced . Moreover , the registration process will start in the next 6 countries imminently , followed by more distribution agreements .

Accreditation with the WHO is not due until early next year , and it is this organisation amongst others which is pushing for the newer version of the Visitect test , which Omega is working on , and will check for a more advanced HIV presence in sufferers . As the CEO said on 21st May , " I look forward to making further announcements as we bring this product to market ." At some point in the future , Omega will have to expand its manufacturing capacity from the current low millions of test kits pa , but it was inferred at the investor meeting that this could be achieved for less than £1m .

4) Allersys - what is clear from Omega's statements on Allersys , its automated allergy diagnostics business , and those of Immunodiagnostics , its global partner , is that Omega needs to get from the current 53 allergens to nearer 100 allergens to obtain critical mass , and eke out a decent market share of this US$500m pa market . At the current rate of growth , Omega should have 80 allergens available within 2 years , and this would cover 95% of all known allergies , but it is entirely possible that Omega is looking at ways of getting there sooner by putting more resource behind the business , if it becomes available .

5) Cash - we were told in early April that net cash was around £0.1m at end March , and that the company had an overdraft facility of £2m . Since then , the German business has been closed at a cash cost of no more than £0.45m ( the final figure could be significantly less ) , and , assuming Pune is closed rather than sold , the cash cost here could be around £0.15m . Against this , the proceeds from last week's disposal of the infectious disease business is £1.8m immediately with a possible further £0.375m in 12 months time . Therefore , assuming current trading is no worse than expected , the current cash position should be robust . The FD did allude to discussing a medium term credit facility with banks at the investor evening , so further progress here would be good to hear .

[barrywhit] 02/7/2018 09:16

I am pleased they have held back the Results, at least now they have got some cash and can put a positive spin on what will be quite dismal results with now hopefully positive forward looking statements....

[hyperboreus] 02/7/2018 07:06

All very intriguing:

[hyperboreus] 28/6/2018 08:48

A bit of an odd thing to say barrywhit that "You can't sell everything, else you will have no business...."

Of course you can sell everything if it is in the best interests of the shareholders and realises value, but I am not suggesting that is going to happen, I feel that the food intolerance business is now considered peripheral to the ultimate goal of getting CD4 to the market, that's all.

[barrywhit] 28/6/2018 08:26

The RNS has taken the market by Storm....LOL

[barrywhit] 28/6/2018 08:25

You can't sell everything, else you will have no business....

[jeevsje] 28/6/2018 08:24

How many reckon that Colin's, Kieran's and Grewal's asses have turned red from Richard's whip?

[hyperboreus] 28/6/2018 08:08

Yes I agree but I think they will sell it as they are a very small business in that area, competition is fierce and margins are eroding.

I wish they would have announced their results before this announcement today but I think they are now getting the house in order, not getting giddy yet but feeling a little bit more optimistic about the future here 😜

[barrywhit] 28/6/2018 07:53

I feel there is too much ongoing value in the Food Intolerance business, but we will have to wait and see, either way at least we have some working capital....

[hyperboreus] 28/6/2018 07:38

Why not?

'The net proceeds of the Disposal will be used to provide working capital as the Company continues to focus on realising the value of VISITECT® CD4, working with partner IDS to deliver on Allersys and EXPLORING ALL AVENUES FOR REALISING VALUE FOR OUR FOOD INTOLERANCE BUSINESS"

[barrywhit] 28/6/2018 07:21

Hyperboreus,

Don't think they are looking to dispose of the Food Intolerance business...

[hyperboreus] 28/6/2018 07:17

More detail on Novacyt website of what has transpired:

[hyperboreus] 28/6/2018 07:13

.... alleviates working capital issues in the short term and it would appear from the statement that they are possibly looking to dispose of the food intolerance business as well

[hyperboreus] 28/6/2018 07:04

Disposal! :