Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[barrywhit] 27/6/2018 16:03

Hyperboreus, you are allowed a little lie, we have been told enough by the company or should I say misled........LOL

[hyperboreus] 27/6/2018 15:45

...actually inadvertently just told a little lie 10.60p trades are buys! 😂

[hyperboreus] 27/6/2018 15:29

It beats me why the likes of Omega don't give a definitive date when they will announce their results, it shouldn't be that difficult.

David Evans stated in the trading update on 10 April:

"We have a considerable amount of work to do on delivering on our strategic plan and our operational objectives for 2018/19. As the decisions we are making will straddle the year-end the financial impact of those decisions will impact both 2017/18 and 2018/19 by way of asset write downs and restructuring costs which are exceptional by nature. I look forward to updating you further on the announcement of our Annual Results before the end of June."

Just typifies the arty-farty approach they seem to prefer, anyhow we all know that they will abysmal so if Mr Evans is telling the truth the announcement should either be tomorrow or on Friday, in the meantime the sellers seem to be pretty desperate to offload at whatever price they can get!

[arthur_lame_stocks] 20/6/2018 19:06

Aren't we due some results soon? Hopefully all the nasties are already out in the open.

[hyperboreus] 20/6/2018 07:13

ODX agreement with IDS is mentioned in their final results statement out this morning, note the 'medium-term' opportunity:

'Allergy: Subsequent to year end, we reached agreement with Omega Diagnostics to become the global exclusive distributor for their range of 51 automated allergy assays. These will be sold under the IDS Allersys brand. This is a more 'medium-term' opportunity as Omega need to build out their assay range and develop allergy mixes before we have a panel which can compete in this field, which is dominated by a small number of key players.'

[buywell3] 31/5/2018 13:28

''On 10th April we were told that Omega had cash of £0.1m , and an overdraft facility of £2m ''

[barrywhit] 29/5/2018 13:27

In terms of the licence agreement with the Burnet Institute of Australia , this has just been extended from 10 to 25 years as from 2012 at " low single digit royalties " , so , all things being equal , Omega has a window of 19 years in which to monetise Visitect's huge potential.

Taken from bomber13 summary above, I would have thought that would have been a good RNS Release myself.........License extension agreement!!!...still what do I know........

[bio_tango] 27/5/2018 22:03

I had a very detailed chat with Kieron as well following the trading update. The plan was to get a loan available to growth companies at an attractive interest rate, which is 50% guaranteed by the government and provided through high street banks. I recall posting something along those lines on LSE chat when there was scaremongering about a placing.

[barrywhit] 27/5/2018 20:14

I would be very surprised if there was any type of placing...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 27/5/2018 12:46

Thanks for your input bomber. I was thinking of going along but it started a bit early for me and I couldn't get out of work in time.

I'm not planning on selling here, in fact if the price falls to sub 10p again I may buy some more. I think the food intolerance business is worth twice the value of ODX on its own assuming things don't continue to decline.

I just hope Kieron wasn't slinging me a line when he told me they hoped to not have to raise any more cash.

[hyperboreus] 27/5/2018 10:24

Thank you for your reply bomber13, only a few diehards, myself included, left on here it seems, I won't be buying anymore at these levels simply because I arguably have more than enough already!

[bomber13] 27/5/2018 07:37

Retired broker , former analyst and salesman , shareholder , I met and liked Omega over 5 years ago , & still do despite recent hiccups . Well attended meeting , 20 plus , no idea who everyone was , but questions were informed , inquisitive and not recriminatory . Will keep averaging .

[hyperboreus] 26/5/2018 20:51

Thank you for that bomber13, very detailed analysis and extremely informative.

Would be interested to know how many investors or potential investors were present along with the percentage of private investors there and which side of the fence you are on and if you aren't a current shareholder has the presentation persuaded you to perhaps to do so in the future?

[barrywhit] 26/5/2018 18:29

bomber13, many thanks for your summary much appreciated. Very well written I may add...

[bomber13] 26/5/2018 17:22

I attended Omega's first ever investor evening on Monday .

On parade were the newly appointed CEO , Colin King , X Shield Diagnostics , Kieron Harbinson CFO , and Jag Grewal Commercial Director . Following the recent profit-warning , management changes , and strategic review , this was an overdue attempt to mend fences and build bridges with investors . Did they achieve that ? On balance , I would say a probable " yes " , they made a good fist of it .

As previously reported , the business is being streamlined into three growth platforms , Allersys , the automated allergy diagnostics operation run by Immunodiagnostics PLC , Food Intolerance , and Visitect CD4 , the point of care test for HIV sufferers .

This process has resulted in the closure of the German Allergy business , and the forthcoming closure or possible sale of the newly-built Pune manufacturing facility for infectious diseases in India , which together will save EBITDA losses of £0.8m for a cash cost of no more than £0.6m . The strategic review concluded that the German business would have been loss-making for a further 2 years and would require an investment of £0.5m in equipment and upgraded product in a very competitive environment , whilst at Pune in India break-even was not expected until 2020 , but with no guarantee , as no less than 11 other companies had applied to the WHO for accreditation in malaria testing along with Omega .

ALLERSYS - after nearly 18 months of negotiations with Immunodiagnostics ( with the latter going through 3 CEO's in the process ) , Omega finally signed a global exclusive distribution deal with them in April . The first sale of allergens is expected this Summer , and every effort is being made to grow the Allergen menu by 10 or more a year . Currently Omega has 53 tests and these should be at 60 by year end , and that amount would cover 85% of all known allergies . Getting to 80 allergens within the next 2 years would cover 95% of all allergies . Following a deal in January with a private Italian company , Technogenetics , which operates in the field of automated autoimmune and infectious disease assays , Immunodiagnostics will now have a cross-selling platform in allergy , and autoimmune diagnostics covering an installed base of 300 of their own machines and 90 Menarini machines ( Technogenetics ) .

As the Omega management mentioned many times during the presentation , allergy and autoimmune fit very well together , and the current CEO of Immuno is a trusted " allergy man " . Therefore Omega is confident that the Immuno CEO will ensure much effort , time and dedication is focussed on this business . The revenue attributing to Omega is anticipated to be around £20/- pa per machine at 65% margins , and Omega is expecting to have 1% to 2% of a $500m pa market by Years 3 to 5 . Smaller laboratories , who typically use the Immuno machine , currently have to use larger labs for allergy and autoimmune diagnostics , thereby losing margin , time , benefit to customers etc , so this new partnership should have tremendous marketing opportunities , as well as money-making opportunities . With regard to competition there are very high barriers to entry .

FOOD INTOLERANCE - the CEO's opening remark on this business was that it was his most major disappointment in 2017/18 . For years this segment of Omega , its largest and mainly based in the USA , has been the bedrock supporting the ambitions in allergies and CD4 , and last year revenues unexpectedly fell 6% from £8m to £7.6m for reasons outside Omega's control . The number of new partner companies in the USA reduced from 3 to 2 in the second-half of the year following the withdrawal of one company for financial reasons . This was due to its CFO embezzling $14m . Of the remaining 2 partners , one is awaiting FDA approval for collecting samples within the USA , and this is expected shortly . Consequently , Omega has put increased resource in place and is very active in trying to open up new sales channels , including selling directly to consumers . The USA is the largest market for food sensitivity globally , and Omega still believes it can add significant value to its business there . Elsewhere , the group is keen to expand into China , which Omega reckons over time ( 3 - 5 years ? ) could be as big as the USA , and they are currently in contract negotiations with a known and trusted entity there .

VISITECT CD4 - this very exciting unique product is now much nearer to monetisation . Following CE marking in November 2017 , Omega has entered into the registration process in 6 countries , which only require CE marking validation in order to achieve B2B sales , namely Nigeria , South Africa , India , Indonesia , Brazil and Zimbabwe , and registration in the next 6 countries will commence shortly . Of the initial 6 countries , Nigeria is the most advanced , and , with an HIV population of 3.2m people , the second largest AIDS population by country , Omega has appointed its first dedicated Nigerian distributor with Visitect CD4 sales anticipated once country registration is achieved , hopefully by end 2018 .

The pre-qualification programme for Visitect with the WHO is also expected to complete by March 2019 , and successful accreditation here will qualify Visitect for public sector procurement . This will also open up sales channels within large NGO's like MSF , Unicef , Gates Foundation etc , and it is these organisations which see the virtue in a newer version of the Visitect test , which Omega is now working on , and this would check for a more advanced HIV presence in T-cells . On Monday , Omega also confirmed that the new version had shown acceptable performance against design goals , and was now progressing into the full optimisation phase of its feasibility study .

There are 40m HIV sufferers globally , of which 65% do not have easy access to regular testing of their immune system so as to determine when retroviral drugs are needed . Therefore , Omega's target market is 20m - 25m people , who , it is argued , would need a minimum of 2 Visitect CD4 tests pa at $5 per test . Omega should make 65% margins on each test . In terms of the licence agreement with the Burnet Institute of Australia , this has just been extended from 10 to 25 years as from 2012 at " low single digit royalties " , so , all things being equal , Omega has a window of 19 years in which to monetise Visitect's huge potential . The Pune manufacturing facility , which is being closed or sold , was never going to be used for production of Visitect CD4 test kits , so production will come from the UK facility , where current capacity is for low millions of test kits pa . However , this can be easily upgraded for less than £1m of capital .

[hyperboreus] 25/5/2018 10:43

Having eventually managed to find the presentation slides on the website I have to say that I am not surprised at all that the share price has dropped since.

Really amateurish effort in my opinion with confusing graphics and lacking clarity in general.

The only vaguely positive note I could find is at the bottom of page 14:

'Confident revised strategy will deliver increased shareholder value'

Hopeless effort really, probably a waste of time and yet more money!

[jeevsje] 24/5/2018 21:43

Been through the presentation and despite the financial pressure, there is no mention to cut the £150k plus salaries for Kieron or Grewal. Just wondering why they get paid.

[barrywhit] 24/5/2018 13:13

Not sure what happened at the Investor Evening, but no buying only selling since....although it looks like someone just picked up 50k @ 11.75p....dreadful share performance.......

[jeevsje] 23/5/2018 18:45

Colin has got bloody fat!!! Are we having to pay for two seats for every flight? First cost cutting measure identified...

[hyperboreus] 23/5/2018 17:30

Apparently there was a 'great turnout' for the Investor Evening according to Walbrook PR.

Looks as if the speaker ate all the pies before the huge gathering arrived 😝

[jeevsje] 23/5/2018 15:23

Judging by the share price movement, it appears the event was a failure and investors have lost faith in the directors. They did not even have the balls to make meaningful buys, just some petty buys.

[p1nkfish] 22/5/2018 13:20

No Barry. 15k this a.m.
The rest still sitting there.
ATB to you and all too.

[barrywhit] 22/5/2018 12:49

Was that your 61k p1nkfish....all the best mate.......

[rivaldo] 22/5/2018 09:44

New article in the Scottish Herald - sales of the HIV test "could run into millions":



Extracts:

"Scottish biotechnology firm hails progress made with HIV test
4 hrs ago"

"The Clackmannanshire-based biotechnology firm said feasibility testing of a device for identifying people with particularly low white blood cell counts has been successful, increasing confidence in the potential of a product for which there is a significant need.

Chief executive Colin King said the company was developing the product at the request of large non-governmental organisations, including MSF, working in poor communities in areas such as Asia and Africa.

He said the NGOs saw particular value in monitoring for cases of advanced cases of HIV as the patients concerned could be at risk of contracting other diseases.

The device is designed to give quick results, without people working in remote locations having to send samples off to laboratories. Mr King said sales of such a device could run into millions.

Aim-listed Omega hopes to have the product ready for commercial launch by the end of the current financial year.

The company needs to complete two further stages in the development process, including testing the materials and components it would expect to use in the finished products and submitting the devices for external tests.

The devices are designed to identify people with lower than 200 CD4+ T cells per microlitre of blood.

A healthy individual will have a CD4 count somewhere between 500 and 1,500.

In November Omega won clearance to sell a version of the Visitect CD4 test on a business to business basis in the EU. The version can help identify people with a CD count below 350, who may benefit from anti-retroviral treatment.

The company has applied to sell the devices in five African countries including Nigeria with six more applications in preparation.

It has appointed a distributor to sell them in Nigeria.

Omega spent years developing Visitect, which it has described as the world’s first instrument-free and affordable rapid test for determining CD4 threshold in people living with HIV."