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[fangorn2] 07/3/2017 12:37

Peter,

"Your point about possible shale production in other countries seems far more significant. Major global shale production would be a game changer, but we haven't really seen any ex USA yet"

Yes, Fuller nail it with this observation..Personally i think it's all over. Managed decline is order of the day, hence Saudis rushing to privatise Aramco.

[greyingsurfer] 07/3/2017 12:33

I think the article overstates the case. No question that shale has changed the oil price environment, but the emphasis on USA Permian seems misplaced. The key claim seems to be an additional 8mmbblsd in 10 years, or about 800k pa increase. Predictions seem to be that around 4mmbblsd are needed pa to stand still, to cope with depletion. So significant but not in itself game changing.Your point about possible shale production in other countries seems far more significant. Major global shale production would be a game changer, but we haven't really seen any ex USA yet. I suspect that in time demand will fall, due to rise of renewables etc, and the PoO will fall as demand eases and sources such as shale evolve. However, for me the question is when? In the short term demand continues to rise, and I expect will for some years (ignoring cyclical effects) and we are in a period of underinvestment. So I see plenty of room for higher, possibly significantly higher, prices over the next few years, which is far more interesting to me as an investment timescale than looking 10 years into the future.Peter