Oakley Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 03/3/2021 13:54

Mak, it's been commented that the OCI placing a few years ago

at what was a large NAV discount may have unsettled some holders.

Now in retrospect you could could make a case that turned out to be NAV

accretive and justified.

[makinbuks] 03/3/2021 12:59

I agree, I can' see a catalyst for the discount to narrow. I recently listened to a presentation of the year end results of another trust, Tetragon where the discount is persistent and large. The key man there patiently listed all the factors he had been advised by various people caused the discount and agreed they were all valid. However, the simple key factor is that there are more sellers than buyers and to narrow a discount you have to reverse that. On that point I really appreciate the detailed explanation from 1968jon above in p406.

There is zero read across from Tetragon to OCI but that simple point, that we are in a market where the law of supply and demand applies, is relevant to all

[essentialinvestor] 03/3/2021 12:27

jon, thanks for the input, appreciated.


One of my friends works for a large PE firm, he drives a very nice Aston Martin supperleggera.
I have a Volvo ).

[1968jon] 03/3/2021 11:36

I'm not sure how much of it is "Key Man Risk" - though I recognise how much he is personally associated with the stock in a way that I am far less familiar with individuals at other PE trusts I own that also trade at a discount - PIN and ICGT.
I would look more at HGT than 3i as a comparison. A bigger stock than OCI now but they spent years trading at a discount to NAV - theory would suggest all of them should be trading at a discount. They really worked on narrowing it. IR, corporate governance, getting in front of people. OCI trade on a segment of the main market that many retail brokers can't access, I am underwhelmed by their IR, the Chair is in Bermuda and some of their RNSs aren't great (in my opinion). I like their portfolio, style of investing and think the discount and cash pile gives me a nice cushion - I continue to add to my position but think I will get returns out of realisations and NAV uplift more than discount narrowing for some time.

[ali47fish] 03/3/2021 11:21

essential please can you explain your comments- anything wrong with peter dubens the founder?

[essentialinvestor] 03/3/2021 10:49

1968, thanks for the insights.


3i trades on a 21% Premium to their last NAV.


OCI perhaps viewed as Peter Dubens? And the market's view of a key man 'risk'

helps explain the discount ?.

[ali47fish] 03/3/2021 10:10

1968 thanks a lot- i am obviously not familiar with your methods- but if you get a better price,then by all means! i know simon thompson of investor chronicle is very keen on them- the share price seems to have gone down a bit in the ast few days - so i ll wait for a lower entry!

[1968jon] 03/3/2021 09:44

Me clarify? I certainly can't explain the discount or share price performance - though I have theories - but I can explain my point above. At 9.28 today the best bid and offer of the 9 market-makers on the screen was 288/290. I have Direct Market Access and am able to electronically request a quote from Retail Service Providers. I requested a quote to buy 12,000 shares, and 4 mms responded with various offers in various sizes including Numis showing 100,000 shares available to buy at 288.167 (bid side). This has been the case for at least a couple of weeks including when the stock was 294-296. In the last couple of weeks, I have bought some of the shares from Numis. Request a quote again and the same offer comes back in the same size ie they have more than 100k to sell? But I know where their offer is and I see lots of prints going through at the price - throughout the day. Those trades can only take place (in my mind) if someone is requesting a price to buy stock, not sell it. When Invesco were getting out of their chunk, the price action was just the same, though the offers were in 250k at that time. Clearly I am talking my own book here....but I reckon it has been a good effort absorbing that selling pressure, it must finish at some point....

[ali47fish] 03/3/2021 09:14

1968-i wish i can penetrate the thick fog into this company- i cant reconcile the stagnant or the snailpace of the share price to long term chart- i am invested and want to add but this doesnt encourage me- can you clarify please!

[1968jon] 03/3/2021 08:56

Numis have had 100k for sale on the bid side every time I have requested a quote for a couple of weeks. Loads of volume then goes through, throughout the day, at that price and they still show an offer in 100k at the price. I can read it as there are plenty of people buying and Numis has a big seller.

[thaiger] 02/3/2021 22:17

Strange to see nearly all transactions today are sell....no one is interested despite trading at big discount to NAV!!

[davebowler] 02/3/2021 12:56

Liberum;
Oakley Capital Investments

Additional liquidity from CPG refinancing

Mkt Cap £528m | Prem/(disc) -27.9% | Div yield 1.5%

Event

Career Partner Group, OCI's largest portfolio company at 14% of NAV, has completed a refinancing as a result of continued strong performance and cash generation. Career Partner Group achieved record student intake during the last 12 months and has been one of the key drivers of OCI's 18% NAV growth in 2020.

OCI's share of the proceeds via Fund III will be £28m and will result in liquid resources available for deployment of £197m.

Liberum view

Career Partner Group is the largest and fastest growing private university group in Germany. Oakley's initial investment in the business was in January 2018, and the number of students has risen from 13,600 to over 60,000 currently. The business offers significant scope for growth as the online education model market in Germany is not as mature as other countries in Europe or the US and we expect it will remain one of the main contributors to OCI's NAV growth over the medium term.


Following the transaction, OCI will have a cash balance of c.£197m (c.27% of NAV). This leaves the company well placed to capitalise on opportunities arising as a result of Covid-19 and we expect cash deployment to pick up over the next 12-18 months. Despite being the one of the best performing fund its its peer group over the last five years, generating a 17% CAGR, OCI continues to trade on the widest discount in the sector (ex-funds in realisation) at c.28%. We regard this as highly attractive given the manager's track record and the NAV growth potential of the fund.

[rambutan2] 01/3/2021 15:54

Re refinancing. This is just the PE equivalent of remortgaging. So they keep the same equity, but the company is now higher geared ie more debt. The difference is the cash they take out. As Career Partner continues to grow, it pays down the debt ie degears and after another time period OCI and other investors will consider doing the same again...

[essentialinvestor] 01/3/2021 13:54

It does not read like a full exit?.


But the fact that we are even discussing this, therein lies the 'problem'.

[makinbuks] 01/3/2021 13:49

I think if they had disposed of equity it would be worded more like previous announcements, ie detailing the return achieved and the uplift to value since last NAV statement. As its a simple repayment of debt none of that applies. Thats my reading but its poorly worded for sure.

[essentialinvestor] 01/3/2021 13:41

'Opaqueness' may possibly be a reason why the % discount remains so high?.



Look at the Premium to Nav 3i sells on.

[essentialinvestor] 01/3/2021 13:25

* holding reduction is how it reads to me.

[makinbuks] 01/3/2021 13:20

Somewhat opaque statement for me today. Career Partner Group was said in the recent presentation to be the number one prospect for growth in NAV. Why therefore reduce your stake? Am I reading correctly that because its a "refinancing" its a loan that has been repaid to us?

[mach100] 12/2/2021 21:17

Thanks SG. David Stevenson is pretty shrewd.I think 375p is fair within a couple of years but that kind of timeframe shows how sticky the discount is. Does seem to be affected by putting money in its own funds in some cases it seems to me.

[simon gordon] 12/2/2021 20:26

Looks a good summary on OCI.

David Stevenson - 12/2/21:

Private equity fund in transition – new addition to Dynamic 35

[makinbuks] 11/2/2021 17:29

I attended the Yellowstone webinar and thought it was excellent. Well worth watching. I noted the honesty about mistakes they had made and the number of reasons for the discount and the actions to address it

[shaker44] 11/2/2021 11:40

Overlooked and under valued.

[yellowstoneadvisory] 11/2/2021 10:37

Steven Tredget, partner at Oakley Capital, gave an introduction to Oakley Capital Investments and updated on corporate performance at the latest Yellowstone Advisory webinar.

A recording of the webinar can be found on the Yellowstone Advisory You Tube channel here
hxxps://youtu.be/tf7AlxVAFdw

A write up of the event can be found on the Yellowstone Advisory website here

hxxps://www.yellowstoneadvisory.com/post/oakley-capital-investments-webinar-a-track-record-of-consistent-nav-growth

[ali47fish] 10/2/2021 07:28

director adds

[yellowstoneadvisory] 08/2/2021 16:33

Investor webinar at 12pm on Wednesday. OCI is one of the leading listed private equity investment vehicles. The company invests in private companies in the Technology, Education and Consumer sectors and has a well diversified portfolio. The NAV rose 18% last year and over 5 years is up 113%. Partner Steven Tredget will introduce you to the company and update on recent corporate performance.

Register here

hxxps://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016106378507/WN_n1ZtwZlBTFKxdpcETrXUTw