Oakley Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 11/11/2016 17:45

QS99 - as per my Comment on the PE thread:

[qs99] 11/11/2016 17:08

hi, apologies, can't find the piece of thread with the "BTEM" theory....can you summarise what your thoughts are please? Either way, Dubens is throwing some serious £s at OCL>...IMO

[spectoacc] 11/11/2016 15:33

They can fire these out, but they can't tell us who sold/bought more than 6% of the co, weeks ago, on top of many larger trades later on.

@Sky - starting to wonder if your BTEM theory could be correct.

"Peter Dubens, a Director of the Company, has purchased 250,000 ordinary shares, of 1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at an aggregate price of 150.25 pence per Ordinary Share. As a result, Mr. Dubens is now interested in 1,660,000 Ordinary Shares of the Company, representing 0.87 per cent. of the issued share capital."

[spectoacc] 08/11/2016 15:26

Sold a few this morning, building up cash in case of shock election result tomorrow.

[spectoacc] 07/11/2016 13:51

Seen no more huge trades but also as yet no RNS re seller/buyer(s).

[spectoacc] 04/11/2016 14:45

Tommo has indeed put OCL in the IC today but it's identical to what he wrote earlier in the week, word=for-word as far as I can tell.

[spectoacc] 01/11/2016 14:50

247k at £1.51; presumably not Tommo's SIPP..

Still waiting for RNS.

[skyship] 31/10/2016 17:25

QS99 - OCL is a Private Equity play, high discounts are endemic. Nevertheless the sector is on a tear and the commonplace 30% discounts have closed in plenty of late.

OCL is a bit of a specialist in the field and one would normally accept that the discount would be higher than the more conventional trusts. The average discount is now less than 20%; but 25% for OCL would seem reasonable.

So if the NAV has climbed to 235p, then a 25% discount gives us 176p. I would be more than happy with 170p.

You can follow the Private Equity runners and riders on the PE thread:

[qs99] 31/10/2016 17:17

all depends on what you think the fair discount should be.....IMO....if ST in the IC is right then I'm punting for nearer to £2....let's see

[skyship] 31/10/2016 17:14

As posted a few weeks back, having taken a quick turn @ 141p I changed my mind and bought back in @ 144.5p. So shooting for a higher target; and IMO there is definitely another 10p, perhaps 20p in the locker here....so will stay with it.

[mad foetus] 31/10/2016 16:12

I'm happy to hold on for a while yet. Normally I'd bank after such a steep rise, but I've done that 3 times in recent months and on each occasion the 6-7% profit I had made would have been 20% if I had held on, so I'm a little less trigger happy at the moment.

[qs99] 31/10/2016 16:10

fair play, nice turn in short order....Dubens buy is what attracted me to this and the massive discount to implied NAV....let's see if this narrowing of the discount has any more legs

[spectoacc] 31/10/2016 15:46

Well done; leaving it a bit longer here, still keen to know who's bought, particularly if it's one of the "active" trusts. Also, might well get another push from Tommo in the IC on Fri.

[tiltonboy] 31/10/2016 15:33

Just met my first short-term target of 150p. Nice little turn from 130p.

[qs99] 31/10/2016 15:30

any short-term targets from regulars/long-term holders here please?

[qs99] 31/10/2016 13:42

from what I can see other trusts trade can trade around 10-20% discount DYOR etc, CLDN one I have been in and out for many years for instance is always around 15-25% but pays a good yield....20% discount to ST's IC calculated spot £2.35 would give nearer £1.90, vs £1.54 to buy so a decent upside IMO let's see

[qs99] 31/10/2016 13:25

thanks all am in

[skyship] 31/10/2016 13:19

ST has used his IC Online column to flag up the Peter Dubens share purchase; points out the 225p NAV post the parship sale; then goes on to say:

"Moreover, Oakley's holding in newly listed media group Time Out (TMO:143p), representing 20 per cent of its NAV, has recovered more than half its post-IPO losses since the half-year end which adds a further 4p a share to NAV. Interestingly, the company's boss has just purchased almost £100,000 of shares. The 6.5 per cent decline in sterling against the euro since the end of June is worth flagging up too because the majority of Oakley's investments are denominated in euros. Adjusting for positive currency movements and it's not inconceivable that Oakley's spot NAV could be 235p a share, of which cash and interest receivables account for 77p.

Trading on a near 39 per cent discount to my estimate of spot NAV, Oakley's shares rate a bargain buy at 146p, the price at which I included them in my 2016 Bargain Shares Portfolio"

[luckymouse] 31/10/2016 13:00

QS99 - chart below is of PrEq sector - fell out of favor as you can see - then came back into favor + Brexit GBP collapse provided a stiff ccy catalyst for EURs, USDs, Globals, Emergings etc

[qs99] 29/10/2016 11:26

hi

new to thread, but what are the views on i) why the share price dropped earlier this year so sharply and ii) why it is trading at such a wide discount to its stated NAV? Dubens has a good record, no, so would have thought it would have been a narrow discount....if not nearer NAV?

thanks in advance

[spectoacc] 29/10/2016 08:15

OCL is subject to Rule 5, but only for 5% holdings, not 3%. In theory, the 6%+ that was dumped could have gone to different people, but it'd still require an RNS from the seller.

Entirely finger in the air, but I'm going for:
1. Sarasin the seller (been reducing prior)
2. One of the "action" trusts being the buyer - BTEM, MIGO, Crystal Amber..
3. Minor panic from Peter Dubens upon realising this, causing him to also grab a stake (not just the amount he's spent, but the timescale and ever-increasing prices).

All very much guesswork/IMO - we should find out in due course.

[spectoacc] 28/10/2016 17:42

Finally heard back from OCL just now, and learned.....nothing whatsoever.

"Oakley is aware of the trades which you refer to, but information of this nature is confidential and we are unable to share it."

I forget how long a major shareholder has to notify a company of their holding - Section 5 on this link but someone may have more practical knowledge than me?
hxxps://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/

Edit - and whether the FCA handbook applies to a Bermuda-registered company! A question I've also put to the co, since from their reply it sounds like they know who's bought the block, but aren't yet divulging it.

Suspect I may have too much time on my hands, probably caused by a dearth of other ops to pursue atm.

[888icb] 28/10/2016 17:10

The share price has now fully recovered from the fall caused by the BREXIT vote. Onwards and upwards next week.

[spectoacc] 28/10/2016 17:00

Nothing in Thommo's IC column on OCL today - thought he may have noticed the block trades.