O Twelve Estates Share Discussion Threads

[paul1967] 03/4/2010 10:36

If six-month pre-tax profit was GBP 2.96 million and they make no loss in second half these are currently worth more than 20p on interim figures alone.

[cyril4] 03/4/2010 09:38

perloff won't go for this

[topvest] 03/4/2010 08:27

Looks like Utilico paid an average of 30p+ so they bought at the wrong time, except for the last 3m.

[paul1967] 02/4/2010 20:53

i doubt they would sell without a profit, so without Utilico playing ball panther would struggle.

[topvest] 02/4/2010 20:36

Well, if Panther offer 25p and Utilico accept, then they would have control. Utilico may want to play it long though. Whatever, it all bodes well for holders at the current price.

[paul1967] 02/4/2010 19:02

Andrew Perloff, Executive Chairman of panther?
In my opinion, no one positions themselves close to 30% without a takeover on the cards as and when the economy improves and debt reduces. Well both are in play now.
I note in Feb Panther/Perloff combined in concert took 29.72 per cent. of the issued share capital of Beale plc


So are Panther and Perloff on a buying spree in 2010?
Looking at Utilico they were increasing in 2008 share price in the 22p-35p range when they increased from 9% ,and started buying when the share price was nearer 40p early 2008.
Utilico Ltd
31-01-08 4,850,000 3.96% (SP 44p) approx
03/03/08 4,850,000 to 6,525,750 (SP42p) approx
06-03-08 6,525,750 to 8,850,750 (SP 42p) approx
25-04-08 9,535,750 to 10,210,750 (SP 36p) approx
16-07-08 10,510,750 to 11,710,750 (SP 18p) approx
28-07-08 11,710,750 to 14,710,750 (21p) approx
07-08-08 14,710,750 to 21,489,090 17.54% (SP 20p) approx
06-04-09 21,489,090 to 24,675,179 20.14% (SP 3p) approx

[topvest] 02/4/2010 18:25

That's the IPD movement, but I agree we could be above. Hence, that could get you to 30p. I wonder whether Perloff might be prepared to offer Panther Securities equity and cash to take this over now? If he gets Utilico on board it's a done deal. With debt reduced, it's nowhere near as risky as it was a few months back. Perloff would also reduce admin costs to close to zero, making it massively earnings enhancing from day 1.

[paul1967] 02/4/2010 17:53

"7% uplift "
Looking at Knight Frank valuation with Minerva in december 2009, they had an uplift of 10% across the portfolio, so now 3 mths on or 6 mths since O12 last valuation, i think we could see an increase nearer 12-15%. 7% would be 3% below minervas december valuation.

[topvest] 02/4/2010 16:58

Ignoring the swap fair values (which would have a negative effect), and applying the disposal and a 7% uplift on the rest gives 22p NAV on my numbers. Add some cash generated through normal trading and a little out-performance against the IPD and 30p may be possible. Obviously the swap could knock 10-15p off, but looks very good value to me. I'm surprised we only got another 2p after such a pivotal announcement. Will Perloff strike?; more manageable for a predator following this disposal. May add some more next week, if there is any weakness.

[paul1967] 01/4/2010 15:59

yes, hope it holds consolidates and moves on.
Debt level much better now and paid down 12 mth early.

[ydderf] 01/4/2010 15:28

only cloud on the horizon is that the current spike is reminiscent of the spike last year........

[paul1967] 01/4/2010 15:07

look at dow go, great figures out over there.
mms 3v1

[navyan] 01/4/2010 14:59

erm.. just like to point out that we have just broken a important resistance level which is 10p. next stop is 15p.

[paul1967] 01/4/2010 14:54

All mms upped their prices now 2v2

[paul1967] 01/4/2010 14:33

so you like them now?
cheers for the figures.
and my head is better now too.

[ydderf] 01/4/2010 14:27

not really surprising, i revisited the figures this morning :

if you capitalise the total erv (estimated rental value) of the portfolio at 7%
you get £16.6m x 14.2 = £235.7m compared with the Sept valuation of £171.5m.

Even taking the full swap hit (not going to happen) of -£15.5m, you still get a new nav of 48p per share.

This is best case scenario, but could well be exceeded if commercial property continues to improve.

If you capitlise at 6.8% the rate at which the disposal was made the figures are even more staggering, prop value becomes £244.1m which equates to 54p, and a super optimistic view would have the -£15.5m liquidated (as it will go to zeor over the duration of the swap contract)to give an nav of 66p!!!!

truth is, if these figures work through ôver the next or two, it may be a 4-5 bagger at current levels.

[navyan] 01/4/2010 14:11

this stock really is in demand now, you can sell in size on line but can only buy 25k online with full ask. and buying pressure has forced MMs to rise the offer price again.

[paul1967] 01/4/2010 12:43

i still stick to my 20/25p in the not too distant future, we shall see, i,m in no rush to cash in, especially as their area is ideal for 2012

[navyan] 01/4/2010 12:17

increased volume, good sign of further rise.

[paul1967] 01/4/2010 10:07

well those with half a brain are buying, market cap £11m last valued six months ago, ummm

[navyan] 01/4/2010 09:46

nice 250k buy at 10p there. watch herd coming in soon.

[cyril4] 01/4/2010 09:02

tell me is this an april fool

[cyril4] 01/4/2010 09:00

will panther ever make a move,or just sell up at 20p

[navyan] 01/4/2010 08:20

I like your style Paul :)