Nth.Mid.Cons Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 26/1/2018 15:44

BB2 do you think this will get taken out?

[qs99] 26/1/2018 15:29

Maybe its that stake builder again? Let's see....

[battlebus2] 26/1/2018 15:26

Yes these can move 20 pt’s at a glance 👍

[qs99] 26/1/2018 15:26

Maybe people have read our analysis and agree? OR maybe a sniff of a bid? As you and I have put on here CC2014, someone could make a bid and use the assets to pay for a decent chunk of it and find very material cost savings IMO...DYOR and hey who knows, but glad I topped up....

[cc2014] 26/1/2018 15:01

Suddenly buyers happy to pay 319 never mind 300. That sure moved fast

[moneygenxyz] 26/1/2018 13:01

Agree CC2014.

If and when inflation returns I think you’ll be happy with your portfolio balances.

[cc2014] 26/1/2018 12:11

I guess your tolerance to the spread depends on your timeframe. I'm thinking in 3 years time the turnover will be £500m, the margin well who knows but better than where we are today.

If... by then the margin is 3.5%, you're looking at £17.5m profit a year pre-tax amd and the market cap will be say plucking a figure out of the air £100m.

The liquidity will come as will the dividends.


If you're looking to buy today to sell at 330 on a short timeframe, then I agree the spread is horrific.


Tbh - I guess it's easy to say when you've placed your trade and already covered the spread. I'm in for the long term. I perceive the construction market has been struggling since 2008 and sometime over the next 10 years it will get back to that ebullient state we had in 2008. By then I'm rather hoping NMD will be doing a billion a year turnover, margins will be fantastic and P/E multiples will be much more friendly than they are today.

I think it probably all comes together after the next election in 4 years time. Either the current government will have fixed PSBR and the national debt and we will be spending on infrastructure at twice the rate we are today or Corbyn will be in and will be printing money to spend on infrastructure at 5 times the rate we are today.

or put another way a bit of a write off related to a job they did in the heights of the recession is going to seem completely unimportant soon regardless of whether they win or lose the court case and what they settle the final account at.

I'd buy more but I can't. I have so much stock in this sector it's already way over what a balanced portfolio would look like. I'm also fully invested at the moment and (fortunately???) have a large capital tax gains bill coming up as things have been going rather well recently which I will need to pay in due course.

[qs99] 26/1/2018 11:37

Have topped up as well, now just wait for that bid..or further director buying (hopefully)..DYOR....let's hope no more surprises....

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 11:32

Yes CC2014....but i HATE buying when the spreads are wide....sometimes 30p on this stock

[cc2014] 26/1/2018 11:24

Size is always a challenge in this type of stock.

You can probably buy in decent size right right now as there are 3 MM's at 300. You'll probably get a decent price too inside the spread.

If the bid were to change to say 290-300, you may be more assured that your trade is a winner but you'll be likely to pay a worse price and there will be less volume as there won't be 3 MM's left at 300 any longer.

If you want to trade in decent size on this stock you'll require big balls and have to be prepared to buy when the spread is wide.

All good fun. Good to see WINS and SING are both operating on a 20pt spread though. Much better than it was a year ago.

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 10:52

....just seen a 7,000 sell recorded timed at 8.26,......does look like a sell @ 266p...but hopefully a very poorly timed one!!!!!

[qs99] 26/1/2018 10:52

yes almost impossible to buy in size.....

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 10:44

Indeed QS99....but its was my second recent purchase...

(would have got more but do find it quite hard buying NMD in any size....)

[qs99] 26/1/2018 10:36

well let's hope that wasn't a director purchase as far too small!!

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 10:28

the 2,500 reported "sell" @282p at 8.56am is actually a BUY......

[qs99] 26/1/2018 10:28

Just a few more on board and we will boom back through £3 IMO....

[qs99] 26/1/2018 10:09

Don't think he will wait that long iMO...DYOR

[battlebus2] 26/1/2018 10:07

It's a case of leaving your cash here for a undetermined time or selling out in the hope you can find another stock to appreciate quicker , I'm in the latter camp but dyor etc...

[cc2014] 26/1/2018 10:07

I had a different scenario in my head QS99.

Moyle Family owns 48%
William Morris Settlement 9%
Charlton 8%
Other Directors 3%
Capita IRG 5%

About 72% in total

Charlton is ex MD of Merrill Lynch.


I was of the view he will continue to build his holding until 80-85% are in the hands of the five above and he can't hoover up anymore as those left won't sell at any price. At this point he uses his old contacts to leverage some form of buyout/sale at a premium to his entry price.

In my mind this is about 3-4 years away as he will want to sell into a market nearer the top of the cycle when people always pay a premium. By then the free cash flow is going to look hugely attractive to private equity.


Who knows - he must have a plan of some sort. Or maybe he just thinks it's ridiculously undervalued and will be happy to collect the dividends out of the huge free cash flow

[qs99] 26/1/2018 09:58

buyers returning it would seem. Have also added a few. Couldn't resist, backing my premis above! DYOR

[qs99] 26/1/2018 09:37

And a shame to see only 1 of about 10 directors stump up cash after yesterday's RNS.

All happy creaming it in..do they believe in the story or not..Exec chair is on £1/2m!

C'mon chaps where is your money?!!


DYOR

[qs99] 26/1/2018 09:32

CC2014:

Market cap say £28m today.
Freehold buildings were £6.9m in 2012 (added £1m 2013), so at least 4 years and no revaluation, IMO that means this could be worth say, 30% more? Let's call a sale and leaseback of £10m value? Let's call it £8m for ease of maths

Less cash, of £17m
You have Plant that may be able to be used to "back" leverage at £7m, let's say half that.

starts getting interesting against a business with over £300m turnover and should be "doing better".

Board took out close to £1.6m in 2016, actually save on listing costs easily £300k. I reckon you must be able to "find" £500k-1m of savings. Give people equity upside. Take out £150k of divi or more.....

You get my drift. This must be ripe for an MBO, P/E or takeover given above maths. You could raise debt on the assets, use existing cash, offer roll over some equity, shove a load of loan notes in there and off you go?!

Not without its risks mind, get that......just shooting the breeze on a Friday morning.....GLA and good weekends and naturally DYOR!!!

[qs99] 26/1/2018 09:11

Won't take much to get this back beyond £3 IMO

[qs99] 26/1/2018 09:04

Indeed, really good after that RNS. Decent vote of confidence. What about the rest of the board then?

[jaf111] 26/1/2018 08:58

good to see a £23k director purchase.....