Nth.Mid.Cons Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 25/1/2018 07:31

Yup, I'm with you BB. Wish they would quantify it, but sounds like they have a decent legal case IMO from that RNS? Let's see. Underpinned by the big cash balance and continuing operations doing OK....let's hope dividend is upped to show confidence!

[battlebus2] 25/1/2018 07:27

Disappointing on the legacy front which they will vigorously defend. The underlying business is in sound footing so not to worried with 17 million cash. Just sitting tight no matter if we drop on this mornings news.

[jaf111] 25/1/2018 07:25

How many more times..... not just with NMD of course......legacy issues!!!!!!
FFS!!!!

[qs99] 25/1/2018 07:11

OK so legacy still affecting NMD?

Hanging on to positives I know BUT:

Market cap £34m
Cash £17m
EV £17m
2018 order book 80% which equates to £320m of their expectations
2% net margins target if hit would give £6.4m....so multiple as of today of 3.7

anyone else concur?

So if market cap goes down much today, it could be on an even lower 2018 multiple, but it is all about delivery.

DYOR

[cc2014] 24/1/2018 14:49

A landslide drop in apprenticeships is not something our industry can afford.

The dramatic figures recently released by the Department for Education, showing a 59 per cent year-on-year drop in those starting apprenticeships across all industries since April, are a stark reminder of the scale of the skills challenge for the whole of UK plc.

The challenge for construction is particularly acute. The CITB forecasts that the industry’s pipeline will require almost 36,000 new workers annually through to 2021, with critical gaps in specialist areas.

We have debated the construction skills gap for years and it’s a problem we all know exists. While the apprenticeship levy offers potential benefits, these will take time to materialise and we can’t rely on this programme alone to fully bridge our widening skills shortage.

Our industry shares the government’s big ambitions for a more skilled workforce of the future, but we can’t afford to sit back and wait for it to happen. We need to make it a priority now.

Click here!
I firmly believe that our sector has entered a skills standstill and the evolving funding system isn’t the only challenge we’re up against.

New skills for a new era
Research undertaken at our Supply Chain Forum 2017 showed demand for more diverse skillsets. This is fuelled by fast-moving technical and process developments within the industry.

“There is a clear consensus that developments in technology are set to bring significant workforce challenges over the next five years”

For example, we need to bolster knowledge to fully embrace the next phase of BIM. We also need to develop the expertise to enable us to continue to pioneer more offsite build facilities – an important future trend.

Interestingly, our research showed that while people are on the fence about Brexit, with a 50:50 opinion split on the impact it will have on the industry’s skills shortage, there is a clear consensus (79 per cent) that developments in technology are set to bring significant workforce challenges over the next five years.

This signals an urgent need to take a fresh look at our training programmes and how we can build on these to futureproof the industry, upskill our existing workforce and attract new talent.

Competing for new talent
Gone are the days where the battle for new recruits stayed primarily within our own industry. Skills have become increasingly transferable and we are competing for new talent against sectors as diverse as retail and accountancy.

This contest is getting fierce. We need to make construction more appealing to a diverse workforce, as well as encouraging skilled people to continue to build their careers in the industry.

We are working hard on this at a company level by developing trailblazer programmes, engaging with students, and growing our academy for both new and existing staff.

By the new year we’re on track to have 100 apprentices registered – around 7 per cent of our workforce – and will boost this through 2018 with £500,000 of investment in apprenticeships. The focus has to be on training and retaining.

There are ambitious new infrastructure developments on the horizon across the country. But without an appropriately skilled workforce, Britain’s future vision is blurred.

John Homer is CEO of NM Group (North Midland Construction)


That's alot of apprenticeships. The other thing that strikes me is that shortage of skills surely has to lead to higher prices (both for NMC and the Client). Improving margins surely?

[cc2014] 23/1/2018 11:11

Nice article in the press

[qs99] 22/1/2018 16:37

haha, yes double pressed soz....

[cc2014] 22/1/2018 16:32

You can say that again.

[qs99] 22/1/2018 15:26

blimey, 500 share sell and off 7p!

[qs99] 22/1/2018 15:26

blimey, 500 share sell and off 7p!

[cc2014] 15/1/2018 09:19

Whilst incredibly sad for employees and pensioners, CLLN going bust will be good news for the industry and NMD.

CLLN have been keeping margins low for years by bidding for projects at stupidly low prices and abusing the supply chain for the last 30 years.

The work will instead go to respectable main contractors such as NMD. You can see for example Kier's share price moved up strongly from 12 on Friday and continues to make small gains this morning


I do not think NMD has any sizeable exposure to CLLN. Certainly I'm sure Mr Charlton will have asked the question before loading up his wheelbarrow again.


NMD did use to work for Carillion Telent (CLLN Joint Venture) , which they terminated the contract as it was losing money. This happened about 2 years ago so it's possible they may still be owed something. Insignificant I'd say and covered by the bad debt provision. I see it as more of an opportunity. Telent (spin off from Marconi if I remember correctly) accounts show they make fantastic profits.

[moneygenxyz] 15/1/2018 08:46

Agreed bbus. Despite the short term pain amongst many (and I do hope they are all supported), I’m glad that the market was allowed to do its own thing. It was a terrible business and imo it’s better to put these businesses down for the long term benefit. Will be interesting to see how NMD capitalises off the huge gap in the market. Presumably margins will become more robust with higher demand and certainly more opportunities for sales. Let it be a warning too though that debt and razor thin margins don’t end well!

[battlebus2] 15/1/2018 07:53

Well that’s the end of CLLN, terrible for shareholders and employees but I’m hoping NMD can benefit even if it’s just to hire some of their expert staff.

[cc2014] 13/1/2018 14:03

Hi QS99. FYI I'm 50 and need to secure a decent income from my portfolio as from last year this is my main source of income. I day-trade too which is a completely different skill than investing. I used to make alot of money day-trading but it's alot harder than it used to be. I consider myself pretty risk adverse although my portfolio may not seem that way at first sight.

I'm looking for new ideas as I'll be getting some cash from ALD takeover soon. Preferably high yield stocks with potential growth

My top tip and biggest holding is CTO. Suggest you read the last 500 posts on the BB. I think it will double to triple in the next three years with reasonable certainty. It pays a decent dividend too.

Speculative trades are PCF and LWB. PCF looks nailed on for multi-bag in due course. LWB I'll take 20-30% by the end of the year.


High yield element contains INTU, LLOY, BLND and some Burford 5% bonds.

and then I've got some RBS, STAN and SFR which are on solid uptrends

HSP - reckon I can make 20-30% but the time frame is very frustrating and slow.

Got a load of ALD too but that's done with now. Takeover going through soon.


LAM is scary. I bought this once at 100 and sold out between 130 and 160 to see it collapse shortly later. Not sure I have confidence in the management or the political situation. Don't know anything about the rest

[qs99] 13/1/2018 12:55

Thanks for this. Interesting overview, I sense the growth top line will be much less than you have, but the EBIT drop through may be more pronounced. Likewise as the cash pile grows, either a yield or acquisitions may be on the cards to "mix things up" slightly. The risk is also that on such a low margin business, that a contract "goes a bit wrong" and they take a hit along the way.....but that is a known...

So am in for the rider in a big way, so GLA and what else are you in CC? I have topped up IDP, SHG, LAM recently just FYI!

Have a good weekend

[cc2014] 13/1/2018 12:37

Are we bothered bbus?

If they are selling now they clearly aren't long term holders with any conviction about the long term story and were going to sell anyway. Nothing we write on here makes any difference anyway apart from maybe occasionally on a short term basis. If it did the share price wouldn't be languishing down here.



I thought I'd look at the numbers again to remind myself why I'm holding

5% profit margin target within 5 years.


Which is do-able. See this story were Ardmore are at 4% now.



Turnover for 2016 = £250m with increase in work this year.
I guess within 5 years turnover = £500m which is only 20% a year.


Worst case. Don't deliver. 3.5% margin. Turover £400m = profit of £14m

Best case. Margin exceeded, Brexit resolved, CLLN go bust, shortage of contractors. 6.0% margin. Turnover £700m = profit of £42m


Take you pick. Market cap is £37.5. They have around £10m net cash, no pension deficit, no bank loans and around £2m of financing on plant, machinery and cars.


However, on the worst case on a lousy P/E of 7 and ignoring any cash and assets that gives a valuation of around £95m.

The best case on a more respectable P/E of 10 and again ignoring cash and assets gives a valuation of £336m

Worst case we 3 bag from here and I 8 bag from my entry of 115.
Best case. I retire and worry about capital gains tax.


What could possibly go wrong?

[battlebus2] 12/1/2018 15:30

You guys are talking peeps into selling lol

[qs99] 12/1/2018 12:33

hehe, indeed, grins all round. Just need a positive TU and a few tip sheets and off we go again...DYOR

[cc2014] 12/1/2018 11:15

Well three hours in and I'm delighted to see no-one selling at all. Which tells us something about the conviction of the remaining holders.

*Grins

[xajorkith] 11/1/2018 22:45

Out all day & only just caught up here.

Delighted to see this finally moving up again after drifting lower for so long.

Particularly encouraged to see it hold onto to the double-digit gains & finish at the high of the day.

Imminent trading update maybe?

[qs99] 11/1/2018 19:02

My broker a/c only has last broker note from 2015, anyone got a more up to date consensus please? Or does the IR team at NMD need to get on the case?!

Would be good to see some news soon IMO, has been too long!

GLA....let's hope Mr C's holding continues to attract interest and push this tightly held share much much higher....

[eclair] 11/1/2018 13:46

CC2014Spot on with your commentary.

[qs99] 11/1/2018 12:57

Agreed. If they get this right the margin improvement from wafer thin low ones should see material drop through. DYOR and a long way to go

[jaf111] 11/1/2018 10:27

BBUS - feel that your 400p target price is somewhat on the conservative side!

[battlebus2] 11/1/2018 10:22

Good to see the response in share price 👍