Novera Energy Share Discussion Threads

[matt123d] 18/2/2008 14:42

3I has bought a 10% stake in NVE today, 12.4m shares.

So who has bought the other 16m, another interested party!?

[asparks] 18/2/2008 13:28

I think ALK (Alkane) is a much more likely target - and they have announced informal bid

[andrbea] 18/2/2008 13:04

wassapper

my answer is on the euro thread

[john hampton] 18/2/2008 13:02

I heard also a new one is coming to market soon, Advanced Plasma Power, looking into this one at the moment.

[robson1974] 18/2/2008 13:00

Eurotrust and Renewable Energy Generation are other small players who could get hoovered up as well. Although they have other big assets which make valuation of the wind bits difficult.

[wassapper] 18/2/2008 12:59

... but andrbea you know that they have very few wind sites developed and the big property overhang.

[andrbea] 18/2/2008 12:57

what about euro (eurotrust)
could someone go after them?
Wind power in Germany, Poland, Spain & Italy.

(apologies for the ramp...)

[robson1974] 18/2/2008 12:54

If 3i purchases Novera it will most likely use it as a bridge to develop a much bigger renewables business through increased investment and consolidation just as it did with Telecity/Redbus etc and shareholders in that who kept their shares ended up making 5x their money. I hope 3i will allow minority shareholders to continue to particpate in the Novera investment opportunity just as they did with the Telecity deal. The telling thing in the Telecity situation was that directors bought more shares after the announcement of the takeover and prior to the eventual delisting. I still think a fairer value for the shares is closer to the analysts valuations of 101-117p and maybe more of a premium for control.

[knowing] 18/2/2008 12:45

LOL ramper

[john hampton] 18/2/2008 12:42

This sector seems to have come alive I'm looking at some of the other plays like Prometheus Energy (PEC) etc the price fall there looks harsh? Also Shanks (SKS) looks good value?

[asparks] 18/2/2008 12:38

I'm out. Dont think its gonna rise further
nice 10% profit from friday

[asparks] 18/2/2008 10:16

megatrades at 90p - its a done deal. 90p it is

[gac100] 18/2/2008 07:21

31 infastructure has confirmed this morning it is the suitor

[robson1974] 16/2/2008 12:20

Nu. Fund Manager Nu. Of Shares % Holding
1 Och-Ziff 16,126,473 13.0%
2 Modal 16,089,533 13.0%
3 Kairos 13,857,641 11.2%
4 Bennelong 11,830,408 9.5%
5 Tudor 7,996,445 6.5%

[robson1974] 16/2/2008 11:45

I reckon strategic investors such as EDF Energies Nouvelles, Iberdrola Renovables, SSE, Infinis, Biffa, Pennon could all come in here and offer more.

Some of these stocks trade on 15-25x EV/EBITDA so buying Novera which is currently just on about 10x EV/EBITDA is going to be accretive.

A full scale bidding war i think can take the share price well over 100p.

[robson1974] 16/2/2008 11:38

3i linked to approach for Novera Energy
By Ed Crooks

Published: February 16 2008 02:00 | Last updated: February 16 2008 02:00

Novera Energy, which generates electricity from landfill gas, has received an approach that could lead to an offer at 90p a share, believed to be from 3i.

The potential bid from the private equity group is 44 per cent above the closing price on Thursday night and would value the company's equity at £112m.

The approach reflects increasing interest in the profitability and growth potential of renewable energy, especially wind power, which is the focus of Novera's expansion plans. Landfill gas is a relatively mature market.

Novera said that it was prompted to reveal the approach, with the consent of the potential bidder, by the recent rise in its share price, which gained 7 per cent on Wednesday and 2 per cent on Thusday.

The shares closed last night at 79p, up 26 per cent, having drifted down from 75p to 55p in the second half of last year.

Speculation yesterday centred on 3i Infrastructure as the most likely possible bidder. 3i said in 2005 that it was seeking more investments in renewable energy, and Novera is the largest independent quoted company of its type in the UK. 3i refused to comment last night.

Infinis, a similar landfill gas company that is expanding in wind power, is owned by Terra Firma, another private equity group.

Novera has 58 sites, of which 46 are landfill gas and just one wind, generating a total of 122mw, but its target is to get to 250mw of wind power by 2011.

A note from Oriel Securities, the company's broker, last month suggested a "risked upside valuation" of 117p a share and a core value of about 80p.

Interest in wind power from investors and utilities is driven by the UK's Renewables Obligation, one of the most generous subsidies in Europe for renewable energy, and the European Union's target that by 2020, 20 per cent of all the EU's energy - and by implication, about 35 per cent of its electricity - should come from renewable sources.

Ian Simm, the chief executive of Impax, a specialist investor in the environmental sector, said that values of wind assets had fallen by about 25 per cent since last summer, making them more attractive investments.

"With the EU's renewable directive taking effect between now and 2020, people investing in renewable energy assets right now ought to be quite well positioned," he added.

[gac100] 15/2/2008 18:20

Robson - informative, and in your 17:45 entertaining, stuff. I successfully traded NVE short term at the time of the Lissett airfield planning application, and bought back in 3 months ago, this time with a view to holding long term. I thought a bidder might come along at some point, but imagined it would be quite a bit further down the line.

[robson1974] 15/2/2008 17:45

The eejet at Goldman Sachs valued it at 53p !

I guess for a small company like this they only had some intern or desk assistant working on it who couldn't see the bigger picture.

[robson1974] 15/2/2008 17:39

Kaupthing value it at 101p

We value Novera Energy's current operations at 66p per share. On top of
that, we assign a value of 35p per share for a risked adjusted new wind
portfolio of 179MW by 2011, corresponding to 25% of Novera's
development portfolio of 725MW and to around 80% of the company's new
installed capacity target by 2011 (230.5MW). This leads us to a target price
of 101p or 80% upside. The stock is trading at 7.6x EV/EBITDA 2009
compared to 11.3x for the wind sector on average.

[gac100] 15/2/2008 16:57

Nice bit of analysis Robson putting some £££s on those MWs. If your assets estimates and market rates are even close, and we get more than one bidder emerging, then today's share price action could be just a warm up.

[robson1974] 15/2/2008 16:44

I reckon Novera is worth closer to 150p.

Potential bidders would include utilities like Scottish and Southern who bought Novera peer Airtricity for E2bn or groups such as EDF Energies Nouvelles or Iberdrola Renovables and maybe even Guy Hands' Infinis which is the strongest comparitor owning significant amounts of Landfill Gas Generation.

I would be extremely unhappy if novera management sold out this early in the game at such a low valuation and I hope the fact that the approach has allowed them to go public (or 'go shop' the group around) will draw in other bidders.

By my estimates Novera have Landfill Gas assets of 100Mw which should be worth at least £1m per MW and has a potential wind portfolio off 250MW which are potentially worth E1000m (because the going rate for functioning wind farms is E4m/MW) and indeed some utilities (Scottish Power) recently paid £1m/MW for land with permission to build wind farms on it!

Novera has the potential to be worth several multiples of its current £100m market cap.

[gac100] 15/2/2008 11:32

Bloody hell!!! - that's a bit out of the blue & 90 pence cash offer too. Who could it be? Scottish & Southern maybe? They're buying up a lot in this sector.

[matt123d] 15/2/2008 10:44

Excellent news.

[cyberpost] 15/2/2008 10:31

Stmnt re:share price movement




RNS Number:0814O
Novera Energy PLC
15 February 2008



Novera Energy plc


Statement re recent share price movement

15 February 2008


The board of directors (the "Board") of Novera Energy plc ("Novera") notes the
recent movement in Novera's share price and confirms that it has received an
approach that may or may not lead to a cash offer being made for Novera at a
price of 90 pence per share. The making of any formal offer is subject to a
number of pre-conditions which Novera is currently seeking to address (although
there is no certainty that these pre-conditions will be satisfied or waived).
The Board wishes to stress that there can be no certainty that this approach
will lead to a formal offer being made for Novera.


This announcement has been made with the consent of the potential offeror.


A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate.