Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[alan@bj] 13/5/2011 08:23

TP - actually I should have used a calculator and not guessed at the dividends - but I wasn't far out. I bought in at £1.0281 in October 2003. Last year's dividends totalled 13.57p so, on a crude calculation, I'm getting just 13.2%. My profit inclusive of dividends is a tad shy of £50K. If I'd been clever I'd have sold on the highs and bought on the lows, but it rarely works like that doies it? I'd most likely have sold at a high-ish point and either invested in a couple of dogs, or had cash tied up in something else when there was a good opportunity to buy back in. I'm very happy just taking the dividends.

[tuning peg] 12/5/2011 17:44

Alan, based on the fact NWG pay a c. 13p divi then you i guess you must have been with NWG from the very beginning at c. 100p (around 2004?). Or are working out 15% based on reinvesting the divis? Either way very impressed you have stayed with them so long but of course this does demonstrate the power of long term investing.

My weighted average is 258p so NWG has been one of my stellar performers. Not bad for a boring old water stock and having this in my ISA is an added bonus. They'll be difficult to replace plus I do feel slightly uneasy about our infrastructure owned by overseas institutions.

But the OTPF bid rumour resurfaces it's head every 6 months whenever there is a quiet market, will most likely not have any substance behind it.

[alan@bj] 12/5/2011 17:01

Interesting final paragraph TP, I'll check out ECWO, although like you, I've got mixed feelings about a takeover. At the price I paid for my shares the dividend equates to over 15% per annum, and I could do without the CGT problem if they were taken over.

[tuning peg] 12/5/2011 13:20

A perrenial rumor but it just doesn't seem to go away. The OTPF are of course now free to make an offer - their previous denial was well over 6 months ago so LSE rules now allow them to show their hand.

As a shareholder I would take great delight in seeing a bid as it would discredit Neil Woodford's case as being a "star" fund manager even further (his Invesco fund turned its back on UK listed utilities in a very high profile way).

On the other hand, as I've posted before on this thread, NWG is a quality stock with an attractive dividend and it will be a major task to find something with the same credentials (no doubt this will invite plenty of suggestions bur for the record I am already heavily into SSE and NG).

As a suggestion of my own I would urge anyone to check out ECWO, they have a large holding in NWG and they trade at a significant discount to NAV. A takeover for NWG will trigger a wave of consolidation in the sector and ECWO have holdings in a number of UK listed utilities.

[miata] 12/5/2011 12:27

and again


What's the raw?
Northumbrian Water Group PLC (NWG:LSE): Last: 361.10, up 4.1 (+1.15%), High: 363.00, Low: 354.40, Volume: 919.73k
NH
rumour that the Ontario Teachers Pension fund
NH
is set to come in with a 430p a share offer
NH
bit of volume in the stock today

[alan@bj] 28/4/2011 08:09

Rose 4p yesterday again on takeover rumours, and an alternative story that the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund is looking to increase its 26.7% stake.

[alan@bj] 26/4/2011 09:51

Up on "vague takeover rumours" according to The Times. Maybe one day, but NWG has been the subject of takeover rumours for years.

[craigends] 05/4/2011 11:00

Wow that's some holding dump from INVESCO?
no wonder reaction going on today -any news on this?

[optomistic] 11/3/2011 14:24

Steady times for NWG....when's the next takeover rumour due....

[alan@bj] 07/3/2011 14:11

From yesterday's Sunday Times - Five Shares for a Balanced Portfolio:-

Northumbrian Water

This is a steady water company with the added attraction of being a potential takeover target, said Raynor.

"It has previously rejected two takeover approaches and we wouldn't rule out it happening a third time," he said.

Dividends produced by water companies can help protect against inflation, as the revenue from charges to customers is linked to the retail prices index (RPI), as is the regulated asset value.

Raynor said: "If inflation is set to remain high in the UK, Northumbrian Water's pledge to grow its dividend above inflation will provide an inflation hedge."
Price: 328p, yield: 3.9%, p/e 13.3

[bountyhunter] 26/2/2011 11:20

thanks for the detailed reply BT, I've been doing the same as you this last week! be sure to spread the risk with investments - I am in a couple of utilities currently although just watching nwg and no longer ng. rgds bh

[bit thick] 25/2/2011 19:33

BH - Sorry for not replying earlier, but busy working this week, earning more money to lose on shares. Oh well.

Net debt is a useful metric for the reasons you mention. I think ADVFN use the wrong data and calculate this from long term creditors less cash (rather than interest bearing debt less cash. Long term creditors include, but are not limited to, debt) Long term creditors less cash is pretty meaningless, as some are offset by assets. The more meaningful metric is market to book, i.e. market capitalisation compared to net assets. Very high in this case at 5.41

I do wish ADVFN would publish the correct figure, then we can all make individual judgements. Me, I'm holing for medium term.

[prezzemolo] 25/2/2011 09:02

Is the rise just takeover rumours, or is actually based on more than just background chatter ?

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2011 16:06

yes BT at the moment I agree, but could be more tricky to service as interest rates rise which most agree is very likely; if interest rates were to remain around current levels for some time however which is always possible (but in my view is unlikely to be the case) I do agree that this would be a good medium term investment;
incidentally how is it that ADVFN make the net debt GBP3.4 billion (which is nearly twice the listed market cap) ?

[bit thick] 19/2/2011 09:19

Bountyhunter - ADVFN calculate net debt differently to everyone else! According to management statement "Net debt is expected to be around GBP2.32 billion at 31 March 2011"

Still highly geared I accept, but dividend is well covered which is why a lot of people own shares like this. They have the ability to service the debt, and unlikely to go bust...

[beardmore] 18/2/2011 16:31

I think it's the rate of inflation. Investors' have started to see the benefits of a sound, predictable and increasing dividend and this is what Utilities offer.

[craigends] 18/2/2011 15:22

Hey ho -up we go -but why today on falling markets?

[craigends] 08/2/2011 12:58

Tempus in today's Times argues that Woodford may be wrong.Utilities are locked in for next few years to agreed regulation, and they seem ok with it.
Me I'll be 'contrarian investor' then and stay with NWG for divi and future growth in uncertain times.

[optomistic] 08/2/2011 09:15

....perhaps he is moving the rest of his holding?

[optomistic] 07/2/2011 18:48

Now Neil Woodford has moved on and is no longer piling shares onto the market, the downward pressure on the share price should be eased. With higher inflation to benefit the water cos. let's hope for some really good topside moves from here.

[craigends] 07/2/2011 13:53

Re post 1180
see link -Neil Woodford has dropped his £250Milion holdings in NWG

[craigends] 04/2/2011 16:35

Opto thanks
with utilities on the up today - seems poor timing or!!!
Agree that volume warrants RNS look for news on Monday.

[optomistic] 04/2/2011 15:33

Invesco done some unloading recently but no RNS yet as to where the shares have gone to.
edit.
If they have gone to the Canadian Teachers fund they will be obliged to bid for the rest of the stock, that I think is unlikely as they are a pension fund and not into running British water cos.
However if they have all gone to one new holder then a RNS must be released shortly.
The two holdings together would be a good position to start a takeover from.

[craigends] 04/2/2011 15:26

Any insight why major shareholder dropped holding from 9% to 4%? Is this buy from predator or getting out policy?