Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[tomkite] 01/7/2008 23:48

If NTG are in poor position,what the hell are the smaller,more heavily borrowed van hire companies going to do???my hunch is that some of them will go bust and NTG will ''Dyson'' them up.Just remember in times of hardship people RENT not buy so actually if NTG can weather the storm they will be in pole position to clean up!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[robson1974] 01/7/2008 23:10

Well say that the earnings are downgraded by 10% to make the maths simple.

Surely the enterprise value of the company should fall 10% as well.

So the company goes from being worth 1040m (debt 840m and market cap 200m)
to being worth 936m (debt 840m and market cap 96m) or a share price of 150p?

Although a lot depends on how quickly they de-fleet but if they de-fleet rapidly dies it not impact residual values so you potentially get a spiral down?

[robson1974] 01/7/2008 18:59

analysts talking about downgrading 5-10% for next year so stock will remain under pressure 300p looks like a decent short term target

[gohunk] 01/7/2008 11:33

Bear...mate...no offence, but laymans for me sorry...not got a scooby wtf that all means...good punt or not ?? lol.
I juat bought another 10k of tan at 9.4, like these, happy to stick them in the draw, they all gettin a right dooin at the mo for no apparent reason, just hoping the tan can get back to 20 ish and i'll re-coupe my earlier losses, i believe in both outfits, hope that enough lol.

[bearraider] 01/7/2008 11:13

OUTLOOK

profit for 2008/9 same as 2007/8 or around £ 78m
interest cover 3.1 (down from 3.4) £200m + borrowing headroom


NO reduction in utilisation rates or rental rates in either UK or Spain (Spain fleet up 14% on year was 17% at half year, they had expected 12% for year in march)
Residuals have fallen from peak which accounts for undershoot of expected profit.


Go

not a bad set of results, if they can make that again in the current year they are very undervalued, though the growth phase is over for a while.

Would not be surprised to see them do share buyback at current share price and before goes ex div as the dividend rate is in excess of the interest they would pay for borrowing the money for the coming year.

[queeny2] 01/7/2008 08:13

bear, can't get to screen, what was outlook statement?

[bearraider] 01/7/2008 07:44

T/o down £5.25m LESS than FORECAST BUT STILL INCREASED 10% not 11%!
Pr .down £3.59m LESS than FORECAST BUT STILL INCREASED £4.1m over previous year
EPS increased by 13% or 10.1p per share.

GOING BUST - TOTAL ABSOLUTE RUBBISH!!!!

[bearraider] 01/7/2008 07:26

Financial Highlights

* Revenue up 10% to £578.5m (2007 - £526.5m)
* Group operating profit* up 10% to £121.8m (2007 - £111.0m)
* Underlying profit before tax* up 5% to £83.1m (2007 - £79.3m)
* Profit before tax up 5% to £79.5m (2007 - £75.4m)
* Adjusted earnings per share* increased by 13% to 91.8p (2007 - 81.6p)
* Total dividend increased by 10% to 28.0p (2007 - 25.5p)
* Headroom of £209m under our borrowing facilities (2007 - £222m)
* Interest cover at 3.1x (2007 - 3.4x)


Operational Highlights

* UK fleet increased by 5% to 68,600 vehicles (2007 - 65,300 vehicles)
* Spanish fleet increased by 14% to 62,750 vehicles (2007 - 55,000 vehicles)
* Utilisation and hire rates maintained in both the UK and Spain

*Stated before intangible amortisation of £4.7m (2007 - £3.9m) and an exceptional
property profit of £1.1m in Spain.

[grigor] 30/6/2008 23:12

A lot of debt, a high dividend and high capital expenditure.

Several acquisitions.

Most of the tangible assets are second hand vans.

[bearraider] 30/6/2008 22:54

Go

Well tomorrow we will see if

1) 2007/08 hits targets
2) Where current year is going
3) If debt interest is well covered
4) If NTG will continue to pay good dividends

Thankfully I own my shares they are paid for I can wait for a good return, if the details are good tomorrow I may well buy more we will see.

[gohunk] 30/6/2008 15:28

did you see tan, i had 10k ready to lob at it this morning, thought it was gonna shoot up to 40 ish, my buy at 29.5 was not processed and i took that as a sign, lol, for once i seem to have been right, that would have brought my average down to about 50p, but have decided against it, basically thinking all my others are getting a bit of a beating at the minute, nothings making sense at present, its better in the bank i reckon at present, so sent it back, kinda figured i've lost enough for now with this and tan. Will wstch with bated breath tomorrow, on both, must say i'm more confident here than with tan.

[bearraider] 30/6/2008 15:04

Well that's the last support line crossed nothing left now but going to hold for now see where we go tomorrow, Selling is very light really just folk selling worried about tomorrow results.

[robson1974] 30/6/2008 11:43

The Southern Cross warning and stock down 66% is pretty shocking and all highly leveraged companies will be hit by association.

Right now gearing up to invest in the Spanish construction market looks to have been one of the all time worst investment decisions of all time.

Worse than this the performance of the current share price asks some uncomfortable questions about whether someone seems to know something and has not shared with the market?

[gohunk] 30/6/2008 11:27

oh god, here we go again...lol.

[pugugly] 29/6/2008 14:04

Thanks to Digital Look. Be very intereted to see what tomorrow brings.

27-Jun-08 Northgate NTG Panmure Gordon Buy 368.00p 807.00p - Reiteration
27-Jun-08 Northgate NTG Altium Capital Buy 368.00p 830.00p 450.00p Reiteration
01-Jul-08 Northgate Final 30-Apr-08 £563.75 +7% £83.09 +10% 90.56p +11% 28.91p +13%

[bearraider] 27/6/2008 20:43

Altium and Panmure Gordon both renewed their BUY recommendation on NTG today at 368p (BUT both have been saying buy before at much higher share price - so they do get it wrong!)

Altium has a new price target of 450p

Panmure did not give one

[bearraider] 27/6/2008 20:43

G0

I opened a large position in TAN, but like you I thought it was a good buy at much higher prices so just hoping to cut my losses. I may have just doubled them!!

[bearraider] 27/6/2008 14:16

Go

They do not need finance, no debt, cash at year end about £29m. If they needed to borrow they could borrow from their usual bank for extra working capital. New factories could be rented (Vigo already is). So unless someone has cooked the books can't see there being a financial problem.

I topped up (now have no spare cash outside my ISA)

[gohunk] 27/6/2008 13:58

lol...ouch...whats the crack, as i posted on there, i'm 'reliably' informed its to do with a finance deal they had lined up collapsing and them now on the hunt for further finance, but looks like it has to be more than that, you topping up, or bailing oot ?