Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[wywcu1] 27/1/2015 11:36

Sorry Leona but I disagree with the charts. We are currently on a P/E of less than 6 whereas 10/12 should be the norm which would equate to a S/P of circa 80p. Debt has been reduced from £6.6m to £4.7 in 2014. Management are even looking at expanding the business via capital injection or acquisitions. All in all I am a big fan of NTBR. Actually I would say that having previously bought in at 11.25p.
GLA

[leona306a] 26/1/2015 22:33

The charts on Northern bear are bearish, excuse the pun.

[interceptor2] 06/1/2015 08:12

Out of a courtesy I must declare that I no longer hold here after slowly selling out over the last month. Nothing at all wrong with the company, in fact they look extremely undervalued. I have just changed my investment strategy away from very small caps where there seems to be no interest at this time.

I am sure that holders who have the patience will reap the rewards here.

Best wishes and good luck...

[cfro] 03/12/2014 18:24

Can i just add that the growth in the bottom line is actually pretty impressive here:

Since 2011 the interim eps figure has grown from 2p, 2.5p, 3.2 and 4.1p.

Whereas the full year eps has gone from 4p, 5.5p and 7.6p.

Subtracting the half year numbers to get: 2p, 3p and 4.4p.

Debt has been reduced considerably in all years also.

(still seems to me to be mainly second half weighted too).

[cfro] 03/12/2014 09:18

Well, it seems there are a few panickers about this morning.

But, as i say, nothing wrong with the results and indeed imo the co is making good solid progress. Debt being paid down.

We wont really know for sure until the finals just how good trading is however, in the mean time they have stated that trading is very strong across all divisions and particularly roofing.

[pj 1] 03/12/2014 09:07

Right, which idiot claimed to have their timing right? :-//

[cfro] 03/12/2014 08:20

Im not completely wrong at all EBB.

In some years they have been second half weighted but admit that the first half is often the strongest. That is because sometimes they have been up against weather problems etc which has often been a dampener (excuse the pun) on H2 figs.

I cant see what you are trying to get at. As i say you can only compare like with like. The H1 numbers need to be above last years H1 numbers and H2 accordingly.

But saying that i wouldnt worry too much if there was slight dip in this financial years H2 figs due to any potential 'bad weather' etc along as the full year numbers beat last years ie eps 7.6p

[pj 1] 02/12/2014 19:10

Would LFL sales exclude any insurance work (esp roofing) following the Storm last year?

Shot in the dark, genuine question especially as roofing is flying (off? lol)

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/12/2014 18:58

mmmmmmmmmmh!

interceptor, I've had a good hour on that and have a headache - your fault but on the bright side, as a cure I've opened a bottle of red!!

Not easy this one and their accounts do seem to be more 'complex' than one would imagine.

The first half of the financial year is pretty much always more profitable and they state this quite openly - due to weather and longer days etc.

This is what I thought. But there was a bit of a spanner in my theory of first half weighting in that the 2nd half last year i.e. 6 months ended 31 March 2014 was quote - "significantly exceeded internal management forecasts" such that there was a drop off between that 6 months and this latest 6 months which one would not have expected.

But this last 6 months is of course better than the corresponding first 6 months of last financial year which is the like for like bit. Hence they are most probably doing better year on year.

cfro - you are completely wrong to say they are 2nd half weighted. They are just the opposite - see above. Hence my comparison with a six month interim period that should have been better than the six month final period just proceeding it.
Your chalk and cheese analogy makes me think you have a very smeary blackboard and some very dry sandwiches!!!

Finally WTFDIK ....Ah! and now some wine :-) GLA!

[cfro] 02/12/2014 11:33

Earnings track record is thus:

March '10 - Pbt £0.69m - Eps - 5p

'11 - Pbt £0.82m - eps - 5p

'12 - Pbt £1.02m - eps - 4.8p

'13 - Pbt £0.68m - eps - 5.5p

'14 - Pbt £1.75m - eps - 7.6p

Thats a pretty good track record to me despite the dip in '12.

Whatever one decides to 'compare' todays numbers with, IMO they show material progress and thats that really.

[interceptor2] 02/12/2014 10:24

EBB, I will be interested to see your conclusion.

I might be a little out of my comfort zone here, but I have looked to if I can work out the difference between H2 and H1, the difference between PBT was £1.024m for H2 2013 compared to PBT of £0.922 for H1 2014, which is lower.

I think the answer is in an increase investing activities for property, plant and equipment, which resulted in a cost of £0.294, in H1 2013 there was a small gain of £0.07m. They expensed £0.149m and capitalized £0.145m, which seems fair.

Without the extra expensed £0.149m, then PBT would have been £1.071m if they hadn't increased investment in this area.

So I think that the difference is that they are now continuing to invest again now from the start of the H2 period 2013, which has continued into H1 2014.

I think that makes sense, in which case I am happy with progress here, I would be interested if you have picked up the same items?

[cfro] 02/12/2014 09:35

EBB,

Firstly, you cant compare March 2014 figs with todays - that is like comparing chalk with cheese. You gotta compare like with like, hence the interim figs announced today were both higher and indeed a lot better than last years interims.

Secondly, the company is second half weighted (as indeed most co's are).

Edit - added on the bell.

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/12/2014 09:23

interceptor & battlebus, I will look into this 2nd half weighting later today cos no time this am. Just be wary these results till we have a definitive. They may not be as rosy as they first suggest!!!
The Full English.....awaits!

[interceptor2] 02/12/2014 08:59

Good timing PJ1, and welcome :o)

Very pleased with results today, cash generation was much stronger and it sounds like their sectors are performing strongly.

I like the emphasis towards streamlining, with the start of the process in moving NTBR building services and MGM into a shared new facility. So cost savings to come, along with reduced finance charges soon. Which all add to increased margins.

As there are no broker estimates here, I couldn't resist a little calculation to what we might see for the full year. I only used todays net margin figure of 3.63% (best to be conservative) but I believe the figure would be higher. So revenues £42.0m? means PAT £1,524m divided by 17,930m share, would be an EPS of 8.5p.

EBB, I think the difference between H1 and H2 looks like an accounting difference between the two, I can see higher charges for H1 in the cashflow statement over H2,seems like costs that are unlikely to occur in H2, but hard for me to draw a conclusion, I haven't the accountant skills nessarsary, might be worth a closer look at previous years?

[pj 1] 02/12/2014 08:35

First time this year that my timing was right, although a ilttle late!
I dislike debt so great news

GLA

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/12/2014 08:34

battlebus, Compare with 6 months ended March 14.

5.0.. 4.6
4.4.. 4.1
1.3.. 1.1 all decreases

hence my question re 2nd half weighting!

[this_is_me] 02/12/2014 08:04

The reduction in debt says it all. Lots of free cash flow. They are correct in using cash to reduce debt rather than dividends given the high levels of debt.

It is a well run, profitable growing company that is still seriously undervalued and the construction cycle is now back in its favour. It did well in bad times so we can expect it to prosper in better times.

[battlebus2] 02/12/2014 07:54

Are you reading the same results EBB?

4.2..4.6
3.2..4.1
0.9..1.1 all increases

Net cash figure also reads well... 1,254 (192)

[eggbaconandbubble] 02/12/2014 07:48

Reduced figures all round compared to second half of last year though. Is trading etc. weighted to the second half normally?

[cfro] 02/12/2014 07:47

Exceptional results.

[battlebus2] 02/12/2014 07:09

Results out. Progress all round especially debt reduction, lots more to come with synergies and possible bolt ons.
Outlook positive.

[cfro] 01/12/2014 16:38

Welcome PJ1. :-)

[pj 1] 01/12/2014 14:24

Dipped my little toe in this morning and got some at 49p

Took some doing though!!

[cfro] 01/12/2014 10:32

Bit of volume this morning. :-)

[cfro] 28/11/2014 10:05

Thanks Ic2, very encouraging.