Norcros Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 11/4/2018 09:11

That is about right Rob. It seems that the whole home improvement market is subdued at present.

[norcros] 11/4/2018 08:51

UK problems are 'luckily' limited to Johnson Tiles. Excluding this division, H2 LFL growth in UK would be +8.4%, which means the other UK divisions are doing just fine.

No details on earnings, but you can estimate free cash flow (FCF) including changes in working capital using net debt year-on-year, taking into account the acquisition of Merlyn, the costs related to this and dividends paid. This would put FCF at £14.2m for the year. If you adjust this number for the £3.9m one-off costs for acquiring Merlyn, underlying FCF would be above £18m. Also note that Merlyn has only contributed about 4 months, so we could see a FCF in excess of £20m this year. Norcros remains dirt cheap.

[robsy2] 11/4/2018 07:59

Bang on target Andrew Byles. further problems at Johnson tiles . UK doing ok ish and South Africa doing pretty well.UK much weaker in the second half. new acquisition bedded in and results expected to be in- line.Looks overall reasonable. as usual there is no detail on expected profits or EPS so maybe there will be some weakness there .Debt levels as expected, seems to be plodding along really with steady progress and an undemanding rating.
R2

[grahamburn] 09/4/2018 11:49

The Financial Calendar on the company website does not mention a trading update, though does refer to the results date as 13 June.

It's possible that now that trading or quarterly updates are no longer mandatory (partly due to the fact that these encourage short term thinking on the part of a board as well as share price volatility) that there will not be one. A number of companies have cut back on such announcements.

[ali47fish] 08/4/2018 10:16

does anyone know when the next update is please? last year there was one around 12-14 april!

[loganair] 15/3/2018 19:54

Guggenheim Chairman of Investments & Global CEO - We are with in 2 years of the next recession, some time during 2019. Basically what Summers, ex-US Treasury Secretary has also been saying.

[loganair] 12/3/2018 12:35

When it comes to Norcros what also worries me with the rise in US interest rates is how as a ratio to GDP S.Africa has one of the highest external debts.

What often saves a country like Japan, yes it has a huge debt, however most of the debt is internal, owned by the Japanese in its own currency the Yen.

[loganair] 09/3/2018 11:41

Sightly off topic, why do I think we're nearing peak usage of oil, because the Saudi's will soon start to sell part of Armaco, the largest oil company in the world.

In the past 3 years, just look at how many Social Media companies have come to the stock market and how much they are valued at.

[loganair] 09/3/2018 10:39

Summers, the ex-US Treasury Secretary says it will not be weeks, however we are not talking years to the next recession which due to the Central Banks having far less fire power than they usually have, is being predicted to be longer than usual.

I have heard a number of times that during 2018 there will be one more push up in the stock markets.

I appreciate and understand pushing the 'Sell' button is often one of the most difficult things when it comes to investing as one fears losing out that the investment will go higher.

One thing I do, do, after the stock markets falls apart I do not Sell and ride it out.

In the next recession I can easily see the share price of Norcros going sub 100p and wouldn't at all be surprised to see a low of between 60p and 80p.

[ali47fish] 09/3/2018 10:18

loganair do you have any insights as to how much more this hast oo go before it starts to fall- its been a long time waitng for my holding to break even and now have a small profit- the share price goes down and up and seems stuck on the current sp- i am minded to sell!

[chartsworth] 07/3/2018 09:49

Just sold below 200, hoping to track back down to sub-180 and buy back in then for another upswing.

[1fox1] 06/3/2018 18:05

Finally knocking at the door of £2 nearly three years later

[loganair] 05/3/2018 12:54

The Bank of England has recently acknowledged that quantitative easing (QE) has resulted in “material reduction in UK company dividends and investment spending”.

The trouble is that QE drove down bond yields. In turn, that made pension deficits explode. (Put simply, if you’ve agreed to pay someone £100 a year, and interest rates are sitting at 10%, then you only need £1,000 sitting in the bank to generate that £100 a year. But if interest rates fall to 5%, then suddenly you need £2,000 to generate the same £100).

As a result, companies had to divert money that could have gone on productive investment and higher dividend payouts, used it instead to fund artificially-exacerbated pension liabilities. Overall the deficit of the combined 6,000 defined-benefit pension schemes in the UK is thought to have grown “to around £300bn by 2015, more than 15% of annual GDP… At the same time as deficits have risen, investment has been subdued”.

[loganair] 28/2/2018 10:10

They say that if the mortgage rate rises by just 1% then then 20% of people will not even be able to afford the Interest on their mortgages.

The economy is strengthening because of the 'lose money, usually around 9 months after the Central Banks start to tighten then the economy weakens.

I agree with your second sentence, that I think there is one more push to the up side in NXR share price before it all falls apart and the wheels come of the stock market.

[sg31] 28/2/2018 09:45

It's only a prelude to a recession if interest rates rise too quickly. The fact that interest rates are rising can be a sign that the economy is strengthening.

I accept we may be more towards the end of this bull market than the beginning but that doesn't mean there isn't more upside.

[loganair] 27/2/2018 17:34

sg31 - Agreed, however during a recession people do not replace shower units because they've become shabby.

The good builders always seem to have work however the country is going, however during recession times I know many builders who have little to no work.

I first invested in the original Norcros some 30 years ago. This time round I have doubled my money, plus the dividends. I am still invested as I think there is still one more push higher for Norcros's share price.

I do not understand why so often, so many posters on so many boards ask why I am investing when I am so negative. Often when I am at my most negative is the best time for me to invest.

At the moment, interest rates are starting to rise, which will mean mortgage rates rising and Central Banks are tightening their monetary policies which is usually a prelude to a recession.

[sg31] 27/2/2018 16:56

Renovating homes is one thing but people still replace shower units that stop working, they still buy a few tiles to refresh a bathroom or kitchen. It's not big ticket stuff like a full kitchen replacement but people go for it rather than move house.

I've run a building company for 30 years, even in a recession work still goes on but the size of jobs gets smaller.

Loganair, I'm always happy to listen to contra arguments, it makes me look at my investments more carefully but you are consistently negative, it makes me wonder why you are still invested.

[loganair] 27/2/2018 13:07

In the past, when recessions come renovating ones home becomes low on ones list of priorities.

[ali47fish] 27/2/2018 12:58

why are you so sure it will go down

[loganair] 27/2/2018 10:33

AB - Apart form Johnson tiles which we both agree, why do you think NXR share price has been held back?

I totally agree when it comes to their South African business.

When the recession comes in my opinion the house builders and companies such as Norcros will be hit very hard.

I am getting very close to selling my holding in Norcros, waiting for the down turn, then to come back in at half the price thereby being able to pick up double the number of shares I held before.