Nmcn Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 07/2/2019 11:12

all good points. Are we not due a trading update sometime soon as well? 25 Jan 18 was the early year update from last year, we are now 2 weeks passed that? DYOR

[moneygenxyz] 07/2/2019 11:04

Plus ~£20m in the bank and operating cash flows atm of circa £10m a year. Which implies a relatively quick payback period of 5 years ignoring discounts

[cc2014] 07/2/2019 09:12

The buyer from post 107 is still going. He's just managed to buy 500 but had to pay 720. Winterfloods have cut their spread today to 40pts which tends to suggest they now have something approaching a flat book.

I'm not bothered anyway. Whilst's it's exciting to see the share price tick up every day I'm in for the long run.
The way I look at it is the following:
Three year revenue target £450m, margin 4%, gives profit of £18m with 17% tax on a P/E of 10 gives a market cap of £149m, more than double where we are now.

I see the £450m as realistic with £500m possible if things keep going as they are. The 4% margin misses John Homers's target by 1% so I think that's prudent. The P/E is reasonable compared with sector peers especially given no debt and £15m or so of cash in the bank.

Even a margin of 2% gives a market cap of £75m, which is slightly above where we are now and pre-supposes very little improvement from the current 1.75%

[dround87] 07/2/2019 08:20

How's the level 2 looking this morning? Reckon sellings finished?

[qs99] 06/2/2019 14:53

Wow, £1 spread from some brokers, bonkers.....anyhoo....paused for breath until next round of buying hopefully!!

[moneygenxyz] 06/2/2019 09:24

Thanks guys, I’ll hold tight. Just good to check base and stay rational now and then

[cc2014] 06/2/2019 08:59

Indeed the buyer is still out there. Prepared to pay 705 now. None of the MM are helping him out. I assume it is one of the MM btw but not WNTS or SNGR

[qs99] 06/2/2019 08:47

Indeed. Let’s see if the hungry buyer is still out there?!

[dround87] 06/2/2019 08:45

Obviously appetite for selling here. And why not? 40pc since the high on results day. That's a tidy profit. Not going to sway me today though.

[qs99] 06/2/2019 08:39

Think the cash gen and layering more profitable work and house building on top should see this continue IMO.

Naturally no hiccups required!!

DYOR. And roll on my Ayrton and beyond!

[dround87] 06/2/2019 08:38

I think we're past earnings maintenance. based on my analysis of the most recent results my target was around 600. But the number and value of contracts being won suggests another increase in forecasts to come. Backed up by confident director dealing it's priced for growth. DYOR but look further than RNS because most of it you'll find in local/industry press. If you're worried there's a trading update soon so do whatever you have to do now. Would be a shame to miss it though IMHO.

[danny baker] 06/2/2019 08:38

Moneygen this is probably the least Brexit-affected share in my portfolio. 100% of turnover is in the UK. They train their own workers so are less dependent on EU migrant labour than other companies. Major customers include water companies, student housing providers and UK telecomms companies. As far as I'm concerned it is Brexit-proof.

[battlebus2] 06/2/2019 08:30

✅✅✅;✅✅€079;👏㈇9;👏

[cc2014] 06/2/2019 08:19

700 on the bid. What a share!

[moneygenxyz] 05/2/2019 23:05

Can someone run me through the thesis on this again. At this price my gut thesis becomes far more wobbly and reliant on earnings maintenance. My Original thesis was that this was a net-net turnaround play + hedge against inflation. The 5 year 500m 2-5% margin plan seems like a nice goal (although margins are far slimmer than I like). I’m also thinking margins should go up after carrillion. Unfortunately (due to lack of aggression + risk aversion) nmcn represents 10% of my portfolio but at 100% gains this is starting to garner my attention as to what to do with it. I’m sure I want to keep it but I want to feel 0 regrets if it all goes wrong. Any speculations on how this might fare in the brexit scenarios?

[dround87] 05/2/2019 11:28

On the road again

[qs99] 05/2/2019 11:12

£7 today then?

[cc2014] 05/2/2019 08:57

Now in intraday auction with 680 on the bid. Crazy share

[qs99] 05/2/2019 08:18

wow, won't take much for my Ayrton target to be hit! GLA

[cc2014] 05/2/2019 08:17

L2 just before the market opened. One of the MM is keen to buy stock!

[qs99] 04/2/2019 11:04

Yup paying full£7!

[dround87] 04/2/2019 10:53

Let's hope they keep coming. One more good day and I've recouped my losses from Shocktober. Thanks in no small part to this amazing little share!

[cc2014] 04/2/2019 10:18

Hmm. The buys still keep coming and it looks to me like the MM require stocks which is no surprise given the trade flow. Offering me 671p for 2500 shares or 665p for 5000 shares.

The trades show buyers are paying the full 700p

[qs99] 01/2/2019 13:07

£20 would do nicely.....can't wait now until the next update!

[qs99] 25/1/2019 13:11

Just wait until it zooms through my tenner! Haha. I’ve got mine in Isa so all good.