Nmcn Share Discussion Threads

[eclair] 21/6/2021 10:38

My maths is terrible but it seems if I take up my full pro rata entitlement, the price would need settle at about 26p to break even based on the current share price.

CC2014, I wish I'd followed suit when you got out.

[cc2014] 21/6/2021 10:25

Perhaps not EezyMunny but I understood enough to get out over a year ago at around 380p having bought in at 115p.

I posted about it at the time. It's all there for everyone to see.

More importantly though, perhaps you could share some insight over the current share price? Under or over valued?

[eezymunny] 21/6/2021 10:10

"CC2014 - 08 Apr 2019 - 12:02:21 - 253 of 564 NMCN (previously North Midland Construction) - NMCN
£50m market cap. £33m in the bank, £20m of property, plant and equipment and no debts and no pension fund deficit.

Didn't think I'd ever see this price again!

Off for a walk now. I look forward to the share price being repaired when I get back in a couple of hours."

Don´t worry CC, you´ve never understood NMCN properly IMO!

[cc2014] 21/6/2021 10:03

So, now we see a one hour 5k delayed trade at 193.4p. It's like someone has run their numbers and thinks there's good money to be made under 200p. One wonders if some of the smaller round number trades are them as well or MM switches to fill the 5k order.

I feel very out of touch looking at this today.

[cc2014] 21/6/2021 09:13

On reflection I still don't get it either.

10m shares in issue at buy price of £1.90 = £19m.

10m shares have the right to buy in the OO 25m shares at £0.20

So, average 10*1.90 + 25*0.20 = 24/35 = 68.5p if you buy now


But I'm pretty much prepared to bet that after everything is done NMCN new share price will settle at 20-25p. Maybe 30p. Surely not as high as 68p?

I guess the argument is that you are buying into Tinkler with a track record (which you may see as good or bad, there's alot to go over, possibly some synergies with other things he's involve with).

But on the other hand Tinkler is buying it at less at 20p as the £10m bridging loan he's getting 62m (not 50m) shares which I make a huge amount of interest for 2 months.

And then there's the "is £24m enough to sort out their cashflow or will they need more?).

I do get the argument that buying 1 share entitles you to maybe get more than your fair share at 20p but looking at how many small trades have been going through it looks like lots of people have that thought process which will dilute the opportunity.


I'm sorry that's all I can offer. The share price doesn't look right to me. And all this to buy into a company which will make a loss again this year, presumably has now a terrible reputation with its suppliers and a questionable one with it's customers.


Something is not right. the share price trended towards £2 in the week before this announcement as the insiders had knowledge, but they and the rest of the market seem to have come to a completely different conclusion to me.


I'll take my chance and see if I can buy near 20p post offer and if I don't understand and miss out, there are 2000 other shares in the UK for me to look at.


Edit: but NMCN will have more assets after all this, through the cash injection. Tinkler is effectively buying most of the company for a £10m loan and £7.5m of equity. Tbh I'm not sure why. £17.5m for something that hasn't made a profit in 5 years, can't count and we can only guess the profitablity going forward seems a bit rich to me. These deals though, the investor rarely loses. They can pay themselves what they want, vote for whatever they want, load it up with debt, all the usual stuff. If I was him I'd want to be sure that there was underlying profit in the long term contracts and we don't have access to that kind of information.

All imho, DYOR etc. because i have no idea why the share price is 190p and nor it seems did the MM's first thing as they expected it to open lower.

[eclair] 21/6/2021 08:45

CC2014, I still haven't got. As an existing shareholder I'm trying to get my head round why the price is holding up - please could you offer some guidance. Thanks.

[cc2014] 21/6/2021 08:34

100m shares currently in issue. 25m new shares available through OO.

if you take up your full rights then your new average share price is 1*1.76+0.25*.2/1.25=145p when new investors are paying 20p.

Clearly I've missed something.

Any thoughts?

Edit: got it. 10m shares in issue not 100m

[kinwah] 21/6/2021 08:33

There is some logic in buying small amounts of shares to gain entitlement to the open offer. Say buy 1,000 shares at £2 cost £2,000. Apply for 249,000 shares in the open offer cost £49,800. Total cost of 250,000 shares £51,800. You don't need much of a premium over 20p post the deal to turn a fine profit. Not a bad gamble!

[cc2014] 21/6/2021 08:25

It appears there is some element of this deal I don't understand or alternatively 160/190p is just mispriced.

[jaf111] 21/6/2021 08:12

Edit…now 150/180p
Unbelievable!

[jaf111] 21/6/2021 08:11

More immediately why is share price 130/150 p AND why would someone buy 3,103 shares @ 160p????

Has someone been reading a different RNS 🤔🤔🤔

[stoxx67] 21/6/2021 08:04

abandon ship !!!!

[eezymunny] 21/6/2021 07:58

"EezyMunny - 15 Oct 2020 - 08:36:06 - 492 of 554 NMCN (previously North Midland Construction) - NMCN
Looks like readers of this board were misled about the big cash balance offering downside protection etc. Just as well I was here to point out the risk that this was a ticking time bomb... Those that ignored me (pretty much everyone as usual) duly punished. As usual."

Hang your heads in shame all those that ramped away, talking utter drivel about the cash balance. Go and read "Accounting for useless rampy thickos".

As for the dimwits that were buying this in the last few days. To Gamblers Anonymous with you!

[deanowls] 21/6/2021 07:29

Twenty pence. Jeeezzzz

[jaf111] 21/6/2021 07:28

Oh dear……but no surprise though……

[jwball] 18/6/2021 10:00

Rumours floating round of a buyout of some description which may be influencing the share price.

[cc2014] 17/6/2021 09:25

The very strange bounce off 150p suggests insider information to me. Like someone has knows the financing deal is going ahead or perhaps someone is looking at taking them over.

I find it unlikely anyone would buy £20k of stock at 194p without a good reason when they could have paid far less a few days ago. Unless of course the 10k buy at 165p was theirs as well.

We are seeing a trickle of buys again this morning on top of the last couple of days. Perhaps this is just one MM cross trading with the others to flatten their book from the 194p buy or FOMO but it all seems a bit odd.

Odd because as I said last night, how much is a company worth that never makes any money and indeed as early as June says it won't make any this year either.


I am left with either
a) it's someone shorting who has just got fried as the share price turned on a sixpence or
b) there's a bunch of people with inside information who see a successful refancing as good for the share price as they have not considered how much the interest will impact on the profitability or
c) My analysis is based on fundamentals and the market doesn't care about fundamentals any longer.

[cc2014] 16/6/2021 19:41

19k late reported buy at 194pAgree cannot understand. Even if financing done at a great rate Nmnc say will make a loss this year.

[pugugly] 16/6/2021 18:55

Cannot understand 10% bounce in share price on minimal volume - For me does not compute.

[squeamish1] 14/6/2021 18:36

Blimey for a minute back in March I regretted my 250p sell... yet another profit warning today, I thought they came in 3's but this has to be #4 or #5.

The H1 result last year had equity at £21m, which has since been destroyed by the £22m loss booked in 2020. Further loss this year puts equity further negative, that's not sustainable. I don't know which lunatic is going to lend to a loss-making company with no equity, but I do know it will be very expensive. For that reason I'm convinced dilution has to be coming but as one of you helpful people said, the company is majority owned by family and they probably don't have £25m to chuck in to a rights issue. What a pickle.

I'm also scratching my head how they think they can make money in water under AMP7 when they clearly couldn't under AMP6.

[cc2014] 14/6/2021 11:43

I suppose the current issue is one of supplier confidence.

Possibly they get a facility for £50m, but once suppliers are comfortable they are getting paid, NMCN only need to use £20m of the facility and in a year's time they can get a deeply discounted open offer away which gets the long term financing under control.

[cc2014] 14/6/2021 11:26

I'm not sure JAF 111. The 2020 loss wipes out more than 5 years profits and in those years there were no significant financing costs. A loss for this year too. How do you restructure a business if there is no underlying long term profit?

2015 profit £0.6m
2016 profit £2m
2017 profit £1m
2018 profit £6m
2019 profit £7.4m
2020 loss £25m?


The price action on the shares suggests otherwise though. The insiders aren't rushing for the door to sell their shares at any price. Unless of course they sold months ago!

I hope they manage some form of deal. This must be very difficult for 95% of the staff who surely did not know the accountants and senior managers could not add up.

[jaf111] 14/6/2021 11:06

No dispute there CC2014.....best case scenario a heavily diluted capital raise??

[cc2014] 14/6/2021 10:28

No surprise at all as far as I can see. Situation with financing is being driven into a wedge where either they get financing or they don't. Either way no profits this year which is hardly a surprise given recent losses and additional finance costs they will have to incur if financing successful.

What surprises me most is that the share price is still above the 2009-2016 100p low