Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[rogerrail] 16/4/2025 15:18:07

Marktime

Apologies for continuing O/T conversation, but it is exactly the arguments you are making that have resulted in the de-industrialisation of the UK, a London centric economic focus, a warehouse economy everywere else and GDP per head in continual decline and falling way behind our peer countries which is costing us all.Just to put the record straight :1. For every direct job lost it leads to another 1.5 indirect jobs lost.2.Job Prospects for steelworkers which are in depressed areas of the country are poor and would be at less than half the annual salary earned in a steelplant3. Remediation , s/s benefits , lost tax take, and retraining costs would exceed govt aid. 4. Our steel plants are amoung the most efficient producing the highest quality steel in the world. But Steel plant losses are high due to the high energy costs in the uk which is highest component of unit costs , 50% higher than France.5. Our trade balance would also take a hit. 6. We are at the mercy of foreign suppliers and imports to supply our defence , construction and engineering industries. In 2016 1000 direct jobs were lost at Scun thorpe because we placed contracts for steel for our Trident subs with France and Belgium.

I could go on.

[mantelsloris] 16/4/2025 14:48:50

safe haven from all the tariff carnage

[panshanger1] 16/4/2025 14:38:13

TRIG and BSIF tracking in a similar pattern

[chucko1] 16/4/2025 14:05:22

What I am focusing on is that NESF traded as low as 61p just 9 days ago, and at 72p (last trade) is 18% higher. Coke, steel, furnaces and pig iron hardly answers the question as to why. I would look to animal spirits, stupidity, wanton selling and desperation as likelier determining parameters.

And, who would say, Rathbones and Investec both being large holders - but those parameters are already accounted for in the preceding.

[soleman1] 16/4/2025 13:31:19

Don't want to speak too soon but a close above 71p looks like a breakout from this resistance with 90-100p next hopefully

[rogerrail] 16/4/2025 10:17:52

Thats correct , the grades of steel that electric arc cannot produce will be provided by imports of semi finished steel ( ingots, slabs and billets) from india and china

[rogerrail] 16/4/2025 10:09:54

The evironmental damage is the huge use of electricity which peaks massively when the furnace is started so will not all be provided by renewables, and requires a huge investment in grid infras tructure. Even at their peak Scu'horpe and Port Talbot only produced about 6m to 7m tonnes per year in total (and only half of that is planned from electric , the rest is made up from imports of dirty steel also incurring transport emmissions) compared to a billion tonnes of mainly primary steel making in China so whats the point?We need to follow the lead from Sweden and Japan:htTps://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/01/03/clean-energy/breaking-barriers-world-s-first-43-percent-co2-reduction-in-blast-furnaces-with-hydrogen

[yump] 16/4/2025 10:03:38

RR

If you claim its false please point me in the direction of your evidence, because all you’ve given is an opinion.

As understand it, from a brief attempt at finding information recently, the order of preference would be:
Green H2 furnace
Other H2 furnace
Electric Arc
Blast furnace

Afaik only the last 2 are currently fully viable.

[rogerrail] 16/4/2025 09:56:21

Because it is not right to replace primary steel making with electric remelting for large steel plants, this a falsehood pushed by foreign ie Indian and chineses owners.

[yump] 16/4/2025 09:56:17

RR
So are you saying that there is no slternative to blast furnaces?

Also I would be very interested to see a comparison of the environmental impact of the use of coking coal for blast furnaces vs whatever environmental damage you are talking about for electric arc furnaces.

[yump] 16/4/2025 09:52:04

O/t
Alongside the publicity around Svunthorpe has anyone seen any politician quizzed about the lack of earlier installation of electric arc furnaces? I just wonder who was in government at a time when it would have been right to take action on that earlier.

[spectoacc] 16/4/2025 09:20:38

Wind or hydro may work better for Wales ;)

Someone - perhaps FSFL - needs to mash the solar ITs together. FSFL + BSIF + NESF would have a lot of clout.

[adam] 16/4/2025 09:05:57

Can we plug the solar farms into a couple of new electric steel blast furnaces? Just wondering if Wales covered with solar panels will be big enough?

[mantelsloris] 16/4/2025 09:01:56

At a 12% div, a lot of risk around the div coverage could already be priced in?

[nickrl] 15/4/2025 21:18:50

@yump the divi progression in that period was at a much lower rate but they stepped it up considerably in 23/24 although to be proportionate the following year it was below trend. My concern remains the step back in the power pricing they have already declared they've locked in for 26/27 onwards and where the prevailing power mkt is headed currently. My take is divi should really c8p but even in the unlikely event they reduce it still represents good value even at 70p.

[yump] 15/4/2025 20:19:01

Seeing as NESF have been around since well before Ukraine price hike, wouldn’t the best comparison be between the ability to pay dividends at say 2016-2020 prices (which of course they managed) and the ability at likely future prices, which may actually be higher than say in 2018?

[nickrl] 15/4/2025 19:53:25

Forward power prices have been easing all year and Trumps efforts have pushed short term gas price down further which will feedback into forward mkts if sustained. Short term the divi is covered by the high power prices they've secured already over majority of output but it will fall away from 26/27. Also with solar growing fast over next few years I see further pressure on summer pricing. Like a few others in the renewable sector they pushed up the divi following the Ukraine impact on energy prices back in 2022 but given normalisation of pricing i can see the divi could come under pressure given they have to amortise a certain amount of debt each year.

[wallywoo] 15/4/2025 15:32:07

3rd attempt at breaking 70p. Will this be the break out? Lots of momentum this time!!