Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 21/2/2025 09:49:32

More solar capacity, yes, but a lot more forecast demand. I suspect the inverted nature of the power curve will be a permanent feature and that the average PPA strike will be somewhat in excess of the current forward projections. (even after accounting for inflation).

The concerns over future dividend coverage are entirely valid, but it is by no means a negative tale. Making any firm statements about any market 10 years hence is foolhardy, but this lack of certainty justifies a sometimes deep discount whenever the centre of gravity for risk taking moves to the left. Far too much to the left on occasions.

[nickrl] 21/2/2025 09:42:14

@WC104 do we really ever know what the aggregated cash cover is in these entities. Of course we can guestimate from power production and average cost but unhelpfully they deign not to provide either at the NAV update. What they do say is irradiance is below forecast and lets be clear the subsidies are only received for energy produced. Then they don't tell us what the average income the portfolio is forecast to generate each year. They do have this info in final & interim reports and the last update was showing it falling away later in the decade. So whilst the short term power curve is far better than even 3mths ago the long term curve remains pretty unchanged. I'd also wager with the amount of solar coming on stream across the UK over the next few years we will see power prices becoming quite depressed in the day ahead market and this will begin to influence forward markets as well as why lock in at higher price when you can get leccy far cheaper in the day ahead mkt.

In the round i want to like NESF but there lack of transparency about the operating entities leaves me weary.

[williamcooper104] 21/2/2025 06:48:20

Appreciate cash cover can be misleading but how do you define true net basisI work on both cash cover and market Discount rate covered Eg if the discount rate is 8 then you take of management costs and adjust for leverage to get the NAV return Then you adjust that for the share price discount to NAV So long as that rate > divi yld then you're covered - but - only so long as the cashflow assumptions behind the NAV are sensible

[yump] 20/2/2025 23:34:49

At least management fee structure is in discussion.

[marktime1231] 20/2/2025 14:08:32

Where is the operational update? Nothing about energy generated or trading and prices or income achieved vs budget. They continue to say the dividend is covered when it really isn't anywhere near on a true net basis. Looks like they are burning through borrowed cash to make up the shortfall.

[adam] 20/2/2025 10:34:25

61% subsidy for 28/29, up from 52%. Nice!

[cruelladeville] 20/2/2025 10:18:52

Looks a decent enough RNS to me this morning.

[chucko1] 14/2/2025 14:08:11

2wild, don't ignore the ex-divi - which accounts for half the fall from the high of the recent jump.

[williamcooper104] 14/2/2025 13:08:16

Yep - better to divert some of the divi to share buy backs

[bargainsniper] 14/2/2025 12:41:34

the dy is too high here imho and is choking off growth.

[2wild] 14/2/2025 11:25:36

NESF DOWN 5.2% from Monday close to Thursday close. Unsure if it will drift much lower over next few weeks.
SEIT is back near lows after an 18% dead cat bounce, towards Ex Dividend day, a couple of months ago,

[spectoacc] 14/2/2025 10:16:22

Wrong board @nickrl ;) Meant for FGEN.

[yump] 13/2/2025 10:29:05

Actually who cares about anyone’s “investment policy” if that’s what a bit of gambling is.

[prokartace] 13/2/2025 10:06:57

Yes sounds like sour grapes old chum. You can also see from the reply after that post that it hasn't been edited. I don't diss your investment policy....

[woodhawk] 13/2/2025 09:23:16

Any old fool can edit previous posts. Nobody knows what any poster did or didn't do, nor how big -or small -a risk they might have taken.

[prokartace] 13/2/2025 09:16:26

I announce what I am going to do ahead of time actually. Post 1438. As for the boytrader bit. At 66 I consider that a compliment, tks!

[woodhawk] 13/2/2025 08:45:50

Usual smug after the event boy traders & fantasists out gloating today, I see.

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/2/2025 08:16:29

Xdiv today for 2.11p

[yump] 11/2/2025 17:38:58

Yes it is a shame that NESF haven't had a takeover approach for 120p in the last few days since you bought.

Billy Hills are open at weekends if you get desperate though.

[bargainsniper] 11/2/2025 16:47:18

Does this share only rise if the sun shines

[fram7] 10/2/2025 16:50:13

bough BSIF today! no luck with NESF! Any reason for the divergence? BSIF should be low risk with minimal leverage though I do not like the fact that they invest not just in solar but in too many other things

[spectoacc] 10/2/2025 16:15:56

Appears the sun isn't shining on BSIF (or rather, the only one of the 3 where the seller still isn't cleared IMO).