Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 18/12/2024 14:00:03

The prefs aren't listed and have no quotes. IIRC they are owned by two pension funds.

[goonerbob] 18/12/2024 13:37:09

Anyone know what the Prefs are trading at or their ticker code? From the NESF website they pay a dividend of 4.75% but don't state if they are cumulative or not.

[chucko1] 18/12/2024 13:00:11

6m Bills, in fact. That maturity gap dilutes the UK/US "difference", but Euro sovereigns rather intensify it again.

[cc2014] 18/12/2024 12:39:48

1 year T-bills at 4.24%. Year low 3.87%?

[chucko1] 18/12/2024 12:23:36

With the current economic policy mix, inflation or rising yields or recession - perm any two from that three (or all three, as I vaguely recall the 70s).

Get this: 10yr Gilts at one year high yield of 4.59%, whereas 1 year US T-Bills at 1 year low. The market is making quite a statement.

[marktime1231] 18/12/2024 12:23:14

I wonder if restarting buybacks will brake the fall here, more effective than the mixed signal of a couple of board members adding weakly. No idea what the bottom might be, but with debt heading towards 100% of market value lenders will be concerned.

Even if the management fee was recoupled to share price rather than NAV the pressure to inflate NAV remains because that is the denominator in the 50% gearing covenant.

Asset sales news on the way surely.

[hindsight] 18/12/2024 11:52:07

chucko1, long gilts have even more risk as no form of inflation linkage like some you mention
Question is how far does long end go before recession appears

[chucko1] 18/12/2024 10:44:48

The very high yielders have far more room for interest rate accidents than do the higher quality ITs, such as SREI and BBOX or HICL and IPP etc, whose lowish yields are far more at risk to being eliminated by further Gilt yield jumps.

Underestimate this risk at your peril.

[cc2014] 18/12/2024 10:31:03

I do not have as yet a large position in NESF, I prefer SEIT, FGEN and GSEO but at 65p it's now the one I am adding too as I have plenty of the rest.

I am currently mindful of 30 year gilts which are now at 5.13% which is the upper boundary for the time period from roughly 1998-2008. By reference to the last 25 years it's a good price but based on time periods going further back it's not.

It's a completely different risk profile of course but I can see why whoever is selling (probably Rathbones and others) might be doing so. I think the selling is overdone compared with the movement in the risk free rate of return and that's why I'm currently buying NESF rather than seriously thinking about buying gilts.

[chucko1] 18/12/2024 09:25:24

CC, totally agree. All the issues discussed yesterday had been previously chewed over, but the shrillness appears to be correlated to the share price!

Absent of clear additional and logical negatives, a decent time to add. But, like you, I have a decent fill of NESF, so additional purchases are small.

[tag57] 18/12/2024 08:10:32

If you plot most renewable share price on a graph over 2 years they generally follow the same path, including FGeN and GSEO which are pretty diversified compared to NESF.
Suggests to me there is nothing in particular driving NESF’s share price and is just part of a wider sell off in alternatives.
Obviously I have concerns with the constant downward slide but nothing I haven’t seen previously.

[ghhghh] 18/12/2024 07:54:54

Shareholders spooked by some of yesterday's doom posts should read the last Final Results, in particular the note headed 'Asset life and technologies'.

It says the useful operating life of the assets is expected to be longer than 25 years and then explains why. Erstwhile's analysis assumes the management are passive going forward which is clearly highly unlikely!

And re the Prefs, they can be redeemed from 2030. If the business is long term viable then refinancing should not a problem. As long as the share price is doing well by 2034-6 then option to convert them

[yump] 17/12/2024 19:03:50

Gilts and interest rates (cpi)

That part of the influence is at least very simple.

There are now insurers and others yielding 10% and they don't suffer from any energy price variation forecast randomness. Although of course, with low share prices, comes the predictions of all sorts of unknown previous problems that will pull the carpet from underneath them.

If all the doom comes to pass, it will be cash under the bed that counts, or a cellar full of pasta, rice and baked beans.

[kernelthread] 17/12/2024 16:45:53

And there's the traditional final kick in the balls at market close.

[barnes4] 17/12/2024 16:39:42

This is getting fairly serious now and probably needs a soothing statement

[nickrl] 17/12/2024 15:30:01

@ghhghh power demand has been falling over the last few years as we continue to offshore our manufacturing and heavy power industries. EVs are still small percentage of vehicles and heat pumps haven't even scratched the surface but unless govt throws more subsidies at them they remain unaffordable for the majority of people so aren't going to drive up demand anytime soon.

New build solar is being subsidised by CfDs and with those they dont have to worry about wholesale price as they will always realise the CfD price which is indexed linked. Also given the panels have dropped in price again it probably washes if the land and construction costs are reasonable. However, its going to play havoc with pricing during daytime in summer months so going to be interesting what it does to the forward pricing curves.

[cc2014] 17/12/2024 15:27:02

Panshanger. imho just buy any of them

Edit: It looks to me like someone is having a clear out before the Fed decision and right now they are prioritising volume not price. I could be wrong of course.

[panshanger1] 17/12/2024 15:21:25

The difficult thing atm is to know where to add in the reit/ infra/renewable space So many are getting hammered HICL GCP ORIT SEIT TRIG NESF BSIF SUPR AGR SHED ?Where lies the best opportunity?

[nickrl] 17/12/2024 15:16:30

Another director buy by the chair this time of 22,876

[ghhghh] 17/12/2024 15:04:59

On the replacement cost argument....there is no point spending money replacing solar panels if you cant sell energy for a price higher than the cost of maintaining, operating, insuring, renting, transmitting, auditing, financing, business rates, manager fees, pref dividends, and so on.

This makes no sense! You are claiming that the business model is not viable yet the significant new build pipeline clearly indicates the opposite.

Predicting forward curves is a mugs games, when has any forecast been correct!

Daytime power demands must rise with data centres/AI/air conditioning and as battery duration improves and fossil fuels fade away

[cc2014] 17/12/2024 15:02:48

Well I have added sub 65p.

[nickrl] 17/12/2024 15:02:15

@WC some of the debt is amortising and that is soaking up an increasing amount of cash over next few years which is why the divi doesn't look sustainable come 26 as they will have also lost the benefit of the higher forward hedges. Mind you at 13% yield now they could cull it by a 1/3rd and it will still be at good level.

[kernelthread] 17/12/2024 14:49:29

Selling assets to themselves isn't exactly a good look. It has a whiff of "shell game" about it.

[williamcooper104] 17/12/2024 14:12:57

The problem with NESF is the convert prefs The lack of power price hedging could work in your favour but the prefs are unusual Usually debt against infra/renewables is amortising - hence why the cash to equity often approximates to the post depreciation free cashflow By not amortising it you get the benefit of higher dividends today but at expanse of considerable risk in the future

[pol123] 17/12/2024 14:07:23

All sounds too apocalyptic.
Surely the BoD are well aware of the landscape/challenges etc. Also if/when they swap out farms, new panels are at least 50% more effective that those produced >5Yrs ago.