Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 27/9/2022 14:07

No mercy at the moment

[tuftymatt] 27/9/2022 11:56

Yeah we are back to a price just a fraction above my average!!

I am waiting to top up at below average as the April low looks possible to me.

[cc2014] 27/9/2022 10:43

Cripes 107p to buy. What should I do? I didn't think I'd see this price so fast or perhaps even at all.

Feeling like a rabbit in the headlights.

[williamcooper104] 26/9/2022 20:17

I think it's more just the general gilt market blow up and sell of UK assets Killing new renewables doesn't alter the value of existing renewable assetsIn any event anything JRM does will be reversed in a few years time when there's a new government; and it'll take him at least a year to actually do something Without getting too political there's no way labour don't win the next election now; and they are going big on renewables

[marktime1231] 26/9/2022 19:46

The reason behind the whole renewables sector suddenly being clobbered extra hard I think is because Rees-Mogg confirmed this morning that he has commissioned a 3-month "independent" review of the UK's net-zero plan, emphasising in the brief that in his view in the light of recent events we need to reconsider energy security and economics.

So Rees-Mogg has told the "independent" review what the outcome should be, eg the need to include reliable sources of power generation eg fossil fuels for as long as the transition might take. That will probably mean investing in new fossil fuel production, storage and new gas power generation. Gawd knows where things stand on big or small nuclear, hydro, carbon capture, hydrogen etc. Not-so-secretly we know R-M wants a new bonanza asap of home grown oil and gas, whether North Sea or fracking.

The market obviously taking this as a signal that the new UK government, while remaining committed to net-zero by 2050, is less likely to keep handing advantages to wind, solar and battery storage if fossil fuels offer better economics. Rees-Mogg winning the argument for now. Could it involve removing or replacing the climate subsidies, green technology development grants, doing something about the climate levy in OFGEMs price formulae, or (please) abolish OFGEM itself.

The review and opinion-sounding of key players will be conducted by Chris Skidmore who did a pretty good job covering as Minister for Energy and Climate while the hemp-knickered hippy Claire Perry was having a meltdown. He reportedly turned down the job when Liz Truss offered it to him earlier in the month, maybe he wanted Secretary of State at DECC reinstated, and the idea of a strategy review was floated to him then. A style and ideology clash with Rees-Mogg perhaps, who seems to be trying to dominate the argument.

Whatever the reason there is a new outlook, squeezing all the premium and some out of new energy stocks. We will have at least 3 months of turbulent uncertainty and perhaps an unfavourable outcome. In the meantime let's hope solid income and NAV growth stops the rot.

[bodgeman] 26/9/2022 16:16

I hope it's just an overreaction sell off. Yes, nesf are carrying debt but I believe it was set at reasonable rates before the govt started giving tax cuts with the inevitable interest rate rises. Fundamentally the sun still shines and there is a strong demand for electricity - which will only grow with increased numbers of heat exchangers and electric cars. If you dont need liquidity right now then nesf is still a good share to be in for the medium term. The main risk I see is the rising cost of new operational asset acquisition and development. Having said that I should have sold last week and bought them all back today.

[panshanger1] 26/9/2022 14:22

More of an indiscriminate selling off in the renewable sector imho

[cc2014] 26/9/2022 13:16

The debt worries are showing through today.

I am trying to work out what price I'm prepared to pay to buy NESF now. Quite difficult given the range of other opportunities out there now.

[marktime1231] 22/9/2022 12:02

NESF benefitting from being in the right sector, up in to the FTSE250 this week, and much of the generation income of around £70M pa (?? is that right) is indexed. Inflation is to some extent our friend. Not all good news though, as at 31 March 2022 NESF had around £96M of credit on unhedged floating interest rates. Swings and roundabouts.

Compared to other solar funds NESF has borrowed and issued preference shares to the max in order to develop its pipeline. We get a sector-leading progressive yield and strongly improving NAV. When and how NESF reduces its debt is a worry.

[tuftymatt] 22/9/2022 08:40

Nice to see a good write up and nice to see something I own actually going up at the moment too!!

[masurenguy] 22/9/2022 07:44

"Solar funds Bluefield Solar Income (LSE: BSIF, all UK), NextEnergy Solar Fund (LSE: NESF, 90% UK) and Foresight Solar Fund (LSE: FSFL, 70% UK) have also done well. Yields in the sector range from 4.5% at UKW to 5.9% at NESF; all should grow at least in line with inflation. For the yield-seeking, risk-averse investor, the sector remains a long-term buy."
Money Week 20 September 2022

[cc2014] 14/9/2022 13:57

One of my nagging concerns is that most of the funds in this sector are not actually building anything but simply buying in assets that in many cases were built years ago.

Sure, this means they are reliable and the income streams are understood but surely anyone buying anything to do with energy production must be paying top dollar right now. I worry that in 5 years time they will have paid well over the going rate. I can't evidence this, but the nagging feeling has turned into something more than that for me.

[williamcooper104] 14/9/2022 13:25

It's not uncommon for such a partnering arrangement My biggest concern would be how independent it is of NESF What can happen (see CSH recently) is that management buy the land personally by participating through their development partner, the development partner then sells the scheme to the fund, with the fund getting none or not a lot of the development profit with management getting most of it Not saying that's the case here - but it's worth watching for - another reason why internal management is favoured over external (alas not a lot of choice in this sector as all externally managed)

[marktime1231] 12/9/2022 13:32

Good that NESF is expanding its battery storage investments, subject to approval to changing its terms of business which strangely limit the battery side to 10%. Looking at Eelpower I wonder who owns and funds them, and how closely now they are linked to NESF who seem to dominate the JV arrangement. Are Eelpower kind of doing the asset manager / developer job for NESF, eg finding and signing up pipeline opportunities for us?

Reports that NESF has been selected for admission to the FTSE250 from Mon 19 Sep





Bluefield Solar also promoted a sign that renewables are the place to be.

[nerja] 12/9/2022 09:28

GBCol hmmm great point, glad I dithered , must engage brain more.

[nw99] 12/9/2022 08:51

More good news

[masurenguy] 12/9/2022 08:43

Well that will depend upon the NAV & shareprice at the point at which any fund raising is announced.

[gbcol] 12/9/2022 08:42

Well bear in mind that the last published NAV as end June was 121.7p, so any fund raise needs to be above that (assuming it hasn’t gone down since and in the current climate it is more likely to have gone up) .

[nerja] 12/9/2022 08:08

This is always the time I dither about selling some in the hope I buy them back lower at the placing.

[williamcooper104] 12/9/2022 08:04

That could be it But given that the first line is "£200m" I don't think you're doing too much reading between

[nerja] 12/9/2022 08:03

Just the bit about consulting with investors about the deal/structure of fund and the capital raise, just me reading between the lines

[williamcooper104] 12/9/2022 07:59

Didn't see the hint in the RNS - but £150m of new investment would indeed imply an equity raise