Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 02/8/2022 08:29

Well I sold out of some of my renewable investments yesterday including NESF, FSFL, DORE, UKW and TRIG.

NESF I was the saddest to see go. I can't figure out why it's so unloved but it's been unloved for so long "the market" must have a reason. The only thing I can see is possibly the gearing but I don't think that can be all of it.

It doesn't seem to matter how much buying there is with NESF there's always someone selling decent volume.

As for a reason for selling I don't really have anything specific other than gut feel and there looked to me better value elsewhere. The price of oil seems to have adapted to Putin and the market is now used to the idea of only 20% gas delivery through Nordstream1. It seems to me highly likely Putin is going to cut off the last 20% but if that's the only thing left to drive high gas prices he hasn't got that much hold left over energy pricing.

Of course there's still inflation and many of the renewable income streams are linked to RPI, some more than others. That may continue to drive prices for some considerable time, but I decided to take profits.

GLA, I will be back I'm sure.

[gbcol] 01/8/2022 13:09

No doubt they want to do another fund raise but that will have to be at a premium to the last published NAV. Currently that is 113.5p I believe, albeit the actual current NAV will be a lot higher. So today we have just about got a premium on the last NAV but if they publish an update then any fundraise will have to wait for the share price to catch up again.

Anyway, very good to see the share price rise here and it should only go in one direction in the short and medium term.

I think we need another £50-60million onto the market cap to get us near to promotion into FTSE250.

[woodhawk] 01/8/2022 11:17

If that is the case, at the sector average, the share price ought to be north of 130p.

[cc2014] 01/8/2022 11:02

Looking at FSFL update this morning (and UKW and TRIG from last week), the NAV is now completely out of date and will be nearer 120p when published

[woodhawk] 01/8/2022 10:52

Good to see the share price getting nearer to where it ought to be - at a premium to the NAV, rather than a discount. Let's hope it continues.

[masurenguy] 28/7/2022 12:56

The circa 2% discount to NAV here is odd since the premium to NAV at Bluefield and Foresight, both of which I also hold, is 6% and 3.4% respectively. Therefore I added here today.

[marktime1231] 28/7/2022 12:26

I share your optimism, we are due the next step up to 115-120p, maybe the imminent announcement of an improved quarterly dividend will help shed the daft discount and get things moving.

[a0002577] 28/7/2022 11:43

Surprised the prize has not walked up more. Good results with much increased NAV from both UKW and TRIG today and yesterday FSFL was promoted to the FT-250.

I already hold too many of these. But the dividend is good. But not quite good enough to cover my electricity bills which are now approaching £5K per annum :(

[cc2014] 27/7/2022 13:18

It looks to me like someone is slowly walking up the price trying to collect volume as cheap as possible. They got lots of volume yesterday, not so much today.

UK TTF Gas now at 375.

I have to say this is not looking good for consumers at all. I'm surprised the renewables aren't moving up more.

[marktime1231] 26/7/2022 12:18

UK day-ahead wholesale energy prices are above £400/MWh which is eight times normal. This is very good news for open-market sales of energy, from all sources. Terrible news for consumers of course.

A bonanza especially for peaker plant generators or energy providers out of storage during spikes, where exceptional conditions have created an extraordinary new record high in the half-hour-ahead price. Nearly £10K per MWh for a brief period.

This is why NESF needs to develop its solar + battery storage model, it is not just about how much power you can produce but the time at which you can make energy available.

[cc2014] 22/7/2022 09:46

As I sit here and write this the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing, but the price of UK TTG Gas has hit 325 pence per therm.

I supsect the first two items might be resulting in the spike in gas prices or maybe there is some other news I haven't yet found.

Of course this spike pricing only affects what NESF and the other renewables are selling spot but I would like to hope it will have some positive impact on the shareprice, which I'm going to need to pay my crazy heating bill this winter.

[tuftymatt] 14/7/2022 14:09

I agree, the move in recent times is very stable / positive compared to many others I hold!!

[cc2014] 14/7/2022 13:51

Given where the indices are generally over the last 6 months where else would you want to be other than some boring solar panels churning out a 7% return?

[marktime1231] 14/7/2022 13:36

Closing the NAV discount?

A NAV update on the way?

The sun shining strongly?

The risk of windfall tax receded for now?

Counting down to the next quarterly dividend uprated to 1.88p?

Or a series of very large buys going through which look like an institution has decided NESF is where they want to be invested?

All good.

[woodhawk] 14/7/2022 11:47

Nice to be able to buy below NAV. Great consistent and progressive quarterly yield.

[cc2014] 14/7/2022 10:43

Finally seeing a bit of strength here. Surely NAV is a minimum sort of place the share price should be even under a worse case scenario?

[panshanger1] 11/7/2022 08:51

Surprised the discount is opening up here again

[tuftymatt] 30/6/2022 13:23

Yes a very nice divi percentage wise that's paid quarterly and with share price growth too. Will be adding if this dips a bit otherwise I will buy inside the next 5 weeks or so ahead of the next divi.

[marktime1231] 30/6/2022 13:10

A very welcome maiden dividend this morning thank you

[masurenguy] 29/6/2022 14:42

High-yielding NextEnergy Solar lifts dividend target as RPI-5linked fund eyes share issue

NextEnergy Solar (NESF), the highest-yielding renewable infrastructure fund, will hope a 5% increase in this year’s dividend target will help re-rate its shares as the £642m investment company looks to raise more money for a £350m investment pipeline. In the year to 31 March NextEnergy paid covered quarterly dividends totalling 7.16p per share. In annual results this week it lifted its target for the current financial year to March 2023 to 7.52p. Although the 5% rise is well below the latest 11.7% annual rate in inflation, as measured by the retail prices index (RPI), NextEnergy said it was above the 4.1% RPI originally forecast by the Treasury for this year.

At yesterday’s closing price of 109p, that puts the shares in the 8-year-old closed-end fund on a forward yield of 6.9%, ahead of the 5.3% average of its peer group. The payouts were 1.2 times covered by cash earnings last year and the board is aiming to increase this to between 1.3-1.5 times this year. Strengthening the high dividend could bolster appeal for the portfolio, which flagged up it was looking to raise more capital soon to enable fund managers Michael Bonte-Friedheim and Aldo Beolchini at NextEnergy Capital to invest in more solar parks and battery storage schemes in the UK & Europe. At 31 March the Guernsey investment had £19.6m cash and £49m left of its £145m credit facility.

The fly in the ointment is the 4% discount at which the shares trade below their net asset value of 113.5p at 31 March. The board, chaired by Kevin Lyon, will need to get the stock above NAV before they can issue more shares, unless they want to dilute and anger investors, including top holders, fund managers Artemis, M&G and Gravis Capital. The shares last stood at a small premium over NAV in March, according to Hargreaves Lansdown. Stifel analyst Iain Scouller retained his ‘positive’ rating but said ‘equity issuance appears difficult’ with the shares trading below their ‘historic NAV’.

The company generates half its revenues from RPI-linked government subsidies, with the remainder from selling its power in the open market. Of this portion, 85% of this year’s sales have been fixed to capture the current high prices, with the proportion of fixes falling to 74% and 42% in 2023 and 2024.

[ec2] 28/6/2022 21:15

Company mentioned that the results call and presentation would be loaded onto their website. Its well worth watching. Hopefully they will include the Q&A at the end where some good points were covered.

[gbcol] 28/6/2022 09:10

I thought the investor call was tomorrow EC2 - the one I signed up for with investor Meet Company is anyway. Unfortunately I have 2 at exactly the same time so can’t do it now (other one is a much bigger holding for me so takes priority). I think this fund has a lot of potential though and have been adding in recent months/weeks for the nice income stream, but I think there is plenty of potential for capital growth too.

[ec2] 27/6/2022 21:30

Very positive and reassuring investor call today. I'm very happy to be continuing to hold these. Very solid and secure looking forward electricity sales will ensure meeting forward income and dividend projections into the future. I like the way they expertly manage this through their energy trading desk. Conservative projections have meant revenue came in 18.1% ahead of budget. Rising inflation has the greatest benefit of all the variables to the NAV. If only all the positives could be reflected through a decent premium over NAV so they can raise further funds for future investment.