Next Share Discussion Threads

[chinese investor] 23/3/2017 09:28

Looking Good !

[jakedog2] 23/3/2017 09:26

every now & then the FTSE100 throughs up some pricing anomalie.

In the last 12 months had RDSB, PSN, TW. BP. EZJ and now Next with PE<10 & yields of 7-10%. Better hunting ground then low caps for me....

However timing is key

[csmwssk12hu] 23/3/2017 09:25

With effectively 458p in dividends that's north of 10% pa these could rise an awful lot from here imho dyor

[essentialinvestor] 23/3/2017 09:21

In proft!, did not expect this.

Sold 50%.

[leedskier] 23/3/2017 09:19

It is amusing that from the link posted above, that those with 0.5%+ shorts were US funds. They really have no idea about the resilience of UK shoppers or the value at current FX rates to EU online shoppers.

I guess there has been some covering this morning.

[spob] 23/3/2017 08:56

It is very refreshing to read such a detailed and informative set of final results.

If only all other companies would produce reports like this.


You can instantly grasp the professionalism of the NEXT team just by reading these results.

[essentialinvestor] 23/3/2017 08:36

At last! )).

[chinese investor] 23/3/2017 08:16

That's Better !

[gorse] 23/3/2017 07:58

Visited a Next branch in Birmingham on Tuesday with my daughter. The tills seemed surprisingly active by mid-morning ....

[gswredland] 23/3/2017 07:53

Not as bad as I had expected.

[chinese investor] 23/3/2017 07:28

Interesting Day Ahead !

[qantas] 22/3/2017 14:25

Shorts not bad at 1.72%

[qantas] 20/3/2017 09:50

Next shorting level is not bad compared to MKS.

Please do your own research.

[muffinhead] 19/3/2017 10:53

ok so shareprice is probably up with events

I've never understood the value in Nxt share price so have stayed away. Seems to me a circa 20% pre tax profit margin in retail should be unsustainable when every company now has an online presence and debt availability is widespread.

When the rot sets in, the free cash flow goes south quickly. Valuing a share on free cash flow is not the only way!!

Fibonacci retracement levels show significant price changes...will the 61.8% Brexit level hold?
Maybe there is a bounce this week to test the 50% Fib level gap... 10% bounce would get everyone taking about recovery and stop posting negative stuff

Longer trend probably stays down


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cluelessbugger] 15/3/2017 11:37

Something that can be quickly changed

hxxps://www.drapersonline.com/news/nexts-womenswear-product-director-exits/7019269.article

[chinese investor] 22/2/2017 15:07

Prof,
Are you having that sinking feeling ?

Professor Pugwash (NXT) 08 Jan 2017 - 17:49:54
I'll be topping up my holding in the morning to around 1500 shares.
Hopefully I'll be able to pick them up around £41 or so.

Professor Pugwash (NXT) 05 Jan 2017 - 08:36:09
And a further 494 just now at £40.21.

Professor Pugwash (NXT) 05 Jan 2017 - 08:28:47
Just picked up 250 at £39.99.

[diku] 22/2/2017 12:03

£36?..

[spob] 22/2/2017 12:01

I guess council tax rises and future utility bill increases will not put more money in customers pockets either :)

[spob] 22/2/2017 11:48

Another factor is sharp increases to business rates

Plus brexit

Plus the weak pound

Plus expected food price inflation will hit consumers disposable income

[walbrock82] 17/2/2017 13:19

From a historical perspective, NEXT has a lot of competitive advantages.

These are:

1. Earning 20% in operating margins and has never fallen below 10% in 18 years.
They beat BOOHOO and ASOS of which its margins are between 4% and 7%, respectively. And beat luxury retailer Burberry’s 17% margins.
All three businesses have higher P/S and P/E numbers than NEXT!

2. Okay, I grant that ASOS and BOOHOO are growing faster, but regarding the PEG ratio, NEXT is lower on 0.61, compared with BOOHOO’s 0.93 and ASOS’s 5.04.

3. Don’t over worry about Debt to Equity of 300%+ because NEXT can pay off its debts in two years because free cash flow of circa. £450m would cover £900m of total debt in two years, provided NEXT can continue to produce those numbers!

4. NEXT PLC online division is earning 25% net margin helped by interest income fees from their credit card services, which accounts for 50% of online earnings and 33% of total group earnings.

5. NEXT PLC has done so much share buyback (bought back 65% of all total share issue since 1999) that a new share price low is equivalent to double that of its 2008’s share price low.

6. Unlike some businesses, NEXT has to deliver the goods to justify its valuation where the EPS doubled from £2.21/share in 2011 to £4.42/share in 2016.

For the not so positive things about NEXT PLC.
NEXT’s management is right to be realistic (whether this reflect an optimism or a pessimistic view), this relate to the rise in input costs of 5% or specifically £29m from
A. National Living Wage;
B. Energy taxes;
C. Wage Inflation;
D. Website improvements.

Other adverse points of NEXT PLC are:
1. NEXT PLC’s consistently record NEGATIVE like-for-like sales but still manage to earn extraordinary operating margins.
2. This leads to the company’s retail division reporting declining revenue per SQ. Ft. from £1,000 to £650, while tripling in sizes.
3. Despite the large dividends give away, the company cash balance is under £70m, therefore NEXT need to churn out exceptional results year after year.


Where are we now

On a historical valuation basis, NEXT looks undervalue from the latest financial numbers. Future results for 2017 and especially 2018 will see if this market is right to justify today’s valuation.

To read more of this analysis, the full post here:

[cluelessbugger] 16/2/2017 16:14

Wolfson has a massive vested interest in Next so I doubt that nothing is going on behind the scenes. I do imagine that changing the direction of a retail giant like Next is not going to happen overnight or even over the course of a fashion season. Changes to products, contracts, leases, recruitment, systems, etc. are going to take time.

Assuming that things are underway to take more advantage of their online channels and reduce the cost of their high street presence, can Next stay in the race whilst this takes place?

[mikepokerface] 10/2/2017 11:39

Lord Wolfson seems like a thoroughly decent bloke and has done an excellent job at Next. He does though have a reputation for commenting pessimistically on the fortunes of Next – and that was fine when things were actually going rather well.

He gives the impression now of sitting back rather passively and commenting interestedly on the macro economic gales that are assaulting Next - rather than actually doing anything about it.

Until this is addressed the shares will continue to languish

Next is a well resourced company and the directors (maybe a change of directors) need to get busy and work out what they need to do to adapt and take advantage of changing market conditions.

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2017 14:43

Yes saw that article earlier and think it's a more than a fair assessment.

No dividend is guaranteed, and the special may be adjusted if trading takes
another downward lurch, the picture for 2017 should be a lot clearer following
the next update imv.