Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 17/4/2025 08:57:06

Added more this morning. Overloaded now, but this is a conviction buy based on a two year view of potential capital growth and increased dividends.

[brucie5] 10/4/2025 09:13:00

Come to join you. Too bad that funds weren't ready until this morning, but on the larger picture I'm happy to take the higher price for what I hope is now an income buy and hold.

[skyship] 09/4/2025 15:02:04

NB: The stats for the full year to Mar'25 won't be known until the Prelims in Jun'25 - 21st June last year.

[skyship] 09/4/2025 14:55:23

Brucie - my estimate post the C&R acquisition is for a combined NAV of c92p, ie currently a 30% discount. The more important metric is the yield.

The benefits arising from the acquisition suggest a good boost to EPRA earnings; so we should certainly be looking for a 6.4p total divi - ie currently a yield of c9.9%.

Anyone else have a view on my 92p NAV figure?

[brucie5] 09/4/2025 14:05:16

Some help from ChatGPT:
Dividend Yield: As of April 3, 2025, NewRiver REIT's dividend yield stands at 8.93%. This figure is based on trailing twelve months dividends totaling 6.2 pence per share, with dividends paid semiannually. ​

Discount to Net Asset Value (NAV): In December 2024, NewRiver REIT completed the acquisition of Capital & Regional for £151 million. This transaction was executed at a 14% discount to the net assets, based on a portfolio valuation of £350 million. ​

Gearing: Following the acquisition of Capital & Regional, NewRiver REIT's proforma Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio is approximately 42%. This represents an increase from 30.8% as of March 31, 2024. ​
Home

Recent Broker Targets: Analyst consensus indicates an average price target of 90.60 GBX for NewRiver REIT. This suggests a potential upside of approximately 36.65% from the current share price.
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That means at current price of 64p the yield is c. 9.7%. (though Stocko says 10.69%)
Where it also gains a 'winning Growth and Income' screen and dividend cover 1.1-1.2 for 2025-26.
Price to Tangible book = .78

Certainly looks interesting.

[brucie5] 09/4/2025 09:59:12

Help requested please. This does not appear to be listed on AIC. Where can I find the easiest overview on Discount to NAV, dividend and LTV please?
And who is the house expert here?! I'd like to hear the case.
;)

[orchestralis] 07/4/2025 15:16:02

Picked up some more today. Great yield.

[bdbd11] 07/4/2025 13:00:20

Ditto, new cash into the ISA. 10% a year plus hopefully about a 50% capital gain in the long term. Keeping some powder dry though as you never know!

[cwa1] 07/4/2025 09:52:53

I've just done the same. Had a really big dividend in, so I plonked the whole lot into NRR at almost the same price as you SKYSHIP. Upped my holding to the "keeps it interesting" level for me now. Hopefully it'll reward us holders in the longer term-but it looks friendless at the moment(tho', then again, what doesn't at the moment!)

[skyship] 07/4/2025 08:36:00

Made a tentative top-up at 63.33p - Not often that you can buy a well-managed REIT on a 40% discount and more to the point - a covered yield of 10.1%!

[skyship] 04/4/2025 20:59:17

Out all afternoon. Will top up Monday as these now down to a crazy level.

9.62% yield on a 6.4p divi - which could be higher!

[gbjbaanb] 04/4/2025 15:08:41

Buy when all others are panicking. You just have to wait a little.

[cwa1] 04/4/2025 13:39:52

Afternoon

I've joined the NRR gang at the upper 66 level. Seems pretty friendless...but what isn't in these markets? Hoping it will turn out to be decent value at this sort of price. Fingers crossed and all that sort of stuff...

[skyship] 31/3/2025 16:12:15

Highly unlikely in my view. Take a look at the discounts and yields across the sector. NRR already an outlier offering better value than all others; so why would they sink further.

I suspect a higher low bounce and a move back to 75p.

[skinny] 31/3/2025 15:25:14

From a selfish point of view, that would suit me.

[bdbd11] 31/3/2025 15:09:19

I have a large holding here, but can see the bear case. Our customers will disproportionally be hit by the increase to NI, with many lower and part time employees in retail. This could make it very hard to increase rents and may actually lead to the opposite in the short term.

On the other hand I am encouraged by the asset management side of the business, and if that can be increased there will be the opportunity longer term to see some decoupling from the nav.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price fall to the mid 60's. I think the market wants in excess of a 10% yield at the current time to make it a buy

[skyship] 31/3/2025 14:55:42

I've watched that Spotlight presentation a number of times now; and the earnings positivity convinces me that a Final divi of 3.4p making a 6.4p total, may well be the minimum.

Adjusted my spreadsheet to 6.4p; so the yield at the current offer of 69.3p = a massive 9.24%.

[skyship] 31/3/2025 09:10:24

The InvestorMeet Spotlight presentation (see Skinny's 4214 above) repeated almost word for word in a big IC article in Friday's edition - though you wouldn't have thought so looking at today's price action!

At 69p the discount is 34.9% and the yield 8.7% on a 6.0p divi - though that divi could be higher at year end.

Looks to me to be the best value in the sector.

[frazboy] 29/3/2025 16:36:05

When I listened to the results presentation I thought the inference was that the dividend would rise by mid teens although perhaps over the course of the next 2 years. On the back of that I've got 6.5p and 7p. Thereafter it's harder to know as the debt needs refinanced which could lead to a 20% cut. I doubt they'll want to cut that much so perhaps the rises will be smaller. We shall see.

[skyship] 29/3/2025 16:29:52

I have 6.0p annualised on my spreadsheet; but I suspect he may hold the Final at 3.2p, so delivering 6.2p.

[nickrl] 29/3/2025 15:04:37

Its largely an abstract of slides from the HY25 results presentation. Anyhow im looking forward to the Lockharts commitment of getting the divi back up to where it was as it has been cut slightly.

[skyship] 29/3/2025 14:48:38

LG - yes, it should appear on the NRR site soon...

[lord gnome] 29/3/2025 14:20:46

You can't alter the size of the slides SKYSHIP. You'll need a bigger screen :-)I hope NRR will put it on their web site, but it's not there right now.

[mindthestash] 29/3/2025 13:56:59

Not sure why the market price is so fragile. Is it perhaps the business rate relief expiry? Occupier costs are going to rise. The number he gave for tenants renewing was afmirable, something like 90%.that sounds pretty good.

[skyship] 29/3/2025 11:52:25

LG - indeed, a very good and convincing presentation. Annoyingly can't enlarge the screen so as to see the slides! Is that just me; or a problem with the site?