New City Energy Share Discussion Threads

[412069] 04/8/2016 11:50

Anyone seen the HNL rns today there going places.

[spectoacc] 29/7/2016 13:08

Dividend dropped into a/c from NCE, nice little earner. Still not seen John Baron's write-up.

[412069] 28/7/2016 16:56

This could make a few quid from HNL a very large holding.

CQS Asset Management Limited holding 1,473,542... 5% +

[spectoacc] 26/7/2016 09:11

Seems it got a recent "tip" from IT guru John Baron, added to one of his portfolios. Looking forward to seeing his write-up. Nice to have got in well ahead of him :)

[hugepants] 28/6/2016 21:45

Yes they've realised some unlisted investments. Now comprise only 8% of the portfolio versus 14% at end sept 2015

[spectoacc] 28/6/2016 21:13

Yes glad they're still describing the divi as sustainable; also they mentioned increased activity amongst unlisted holdings.

[hugepants] 28/6/2016 20:42

Interim results (to end March 2016). Look OK.


Current dividend of 1p decribed as "sustainable".

"..The Board took the difficult decision at the end of 2015 to reduce the level of dividends to an annual 1.0 pence per share payable as to 0.25p per quarter. We believe that this level is sustainable in the current environment."


So current yield is 9% and discount to NAV approx 30%.

[hugepants] 22/4/2016 13:56

I wonder who the big seller is. No holding RNSs yet. The company were buying back shares in Feb.

Biggest holding BW LPG doing well today.

[spectoacc] 20/4/2016 16:19

Yes, hopefully the "rebasing" to 1p is sustainable, or they'd have cut it by more.

NAV up to 16.5p I see.

[hugepants] 20/4/2016 11:20

Fair comment. Regarding running costs they reduced from £660K to £480K last year and they say cost-cutting will continue in the current year. Realistically will any trust have running costs of less than £0.4M per year?

I picked up a few more this morning. 11p to buy, not 12.5p as quoted. Big difference. Actual spread is 10p-11p.

The directors are implying a 1p a year dividend (0.25p paid quarterly) is sustainable which gives a current 9% yield.

[spectoacc] 20/4/2016 10:31

Also been buying a few of these recently, though in any firesale the NAV would be considerably lower IMO. Just looking at two of the UK holdings (Egdon & Igas), if you had to sell a couple of hundred k (shares or £s!) of either of those you'd have some fun - doubt you'd get half price on Egdon, if you could get them away at all.

So I can see why a winding-up isn't in the interests of anybody (though completely acknowledge the ridiculous costs - think what just the listing and RNSs cost, even before the "investment" manager fees). But can also see how a cyclical recovery could lead to some good gains (again, look at EDR and IGAS charts, which isn't to say both couldn't go lower first).

So why am I in? Discount to NAV, recovery prospect, dividend (some bonds in there providing income), and what I think will be the endgame - they'll need to/have to merge with a bigger trust, to get the fees spread over a larger NAV and things like the listing cost removed. That should bring the discount in irrespective of a market recovery. Don't know when it'll happen, but happy to wait.

Won't be betting the house on them mind.

[hugepants] 18/4/2016 14:23

Ive bought at 11p mid price recently, Looks good value at 30%+ discount. Big dividend. Running costs are reducing and look like they could be down to £0.4M this year. Still high but realistically what you'd expect for a tiny AIM listed trust. About 85% of the investments are listed so the NAV is believable. And a broad range of O&G listed investments, some big companies in there, so looks a decent punt on the O&G sector recovering. At this discount I'm OK with them paying part of dividend out of capital if required..

[stemis] 11/3/2015 10:10

Very impressive.......if only you were looking at the right factsheet

Try this one instead

[stemis] 11/3/2015 09:53

Regardless of whether this is a good investment at the present, its clear that the only people who've made money here long term are the investment managers (for whose benefit it was obviously set up). Last year the cost of running this was £660k (nearly £400k of which was paid to the managers)! NAV is currently only £12.6m. All the costs are charged against capital allowing them to pay a good dividend (and the give the appearance of delivering shareholder value) whilst the capital ebbs away.

I don't know who the major shareholders are but I'd guess it's discretionary clients put in here without their knowledge. I can't believe any reputable institution would be interested. So I guess the company will survive the continuation votes on the back of clients who don't even really know they are invested here. Unless there is a big recovery in oil price the gravy train will run out eventually. They'll eventually have to start liquidating capital to cover the running costs and then the income will suffer. It's a self perpetuating downward vortex.

[rcturner2] 10/3/2015 14:56

Yes, if the shareholders do not vote to continue, then the trust is wound up and the assets sold. The payout should be fairly close to the NAV.

However, I do not think that there is much likelihood of the the company being wound up as that would mean selling out the assets in a down period in the cycle and most shareholders would not be here if they didn't want exposure to the sector.

[speedsgh] 10/3/2015 14:34

Forgive my ignorance but what happens if they do not survive the continuation vote. Are all assets sold off in an orderly manner + cash returned to shareholders? In which case is one likely to receive less/more than the NAV/share?

[stemis] 10/3/2015 13:50

I suppose the key questions are

1. can the company maintain this level of dividend, and
2. will it survive the continuation vote next month

[pherrom] 18/2/2015 14:59

Yes, I bought some a couple of weeks ago; not really expecting 10% but would be delighted if they maintain that sort of yield.

[devil20] 11/2/2014 14:02

We also have an ISLAND REVERSAL on the chart...here's an explanation.

[tiltonboy] 11/2/2014 12:58

Mentioned in MoneyWeek.

[konkel] 11/2/2014 12:28

It may have been tipped but I think it's just that there's so much talk of shale and fracking in the news that people are looking for a "play; NCE has stated its intention to focus the portfolio more in this area. Added to that it's on deepish discount (not so deep now!) and a big yield. Also, I believe there's a continuation vote not so far away so, given it's lousy performance, there may be a few punters buying in the hope of a wind-up?