Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 27/7/2018 09:05

Interesting comments from Lurker recently on LSE. He usually keeps his cards very close to his chest but on this occasion reveals that a share price in excess of 26p is the likely outcome for #NCCLRedacted for transposition!"20% is what NCCL will probably have ( due past spending contribution ) but on my own guess it's likely to be more than 3x currently"

[terranadonjohnson] 27/7/2018 09:02

with the SPV, its possible for GE an CMEC to take 100% of it. if they want to. if they're each going to take 40% say, that places them in control but also absorbing a larger proportion of the risk. nccl taking 20% doesn't mitigate that burden of risk.

i just didn't see how that supposed risk of owning 100% (50% each for GE an CMEC) was prohibitive when owning 40% each meant they had to already shoulder the greater burden of risk

[divmad] 27/7/2018 07:05

I think Lurker was saying that the C2P project will be wrapped inside a SPV, of which Nccl might end up with 40%, or less if GE/CMEC agree to take out more for their own requirements (at a cost).

Unlikely that GE/CMEC will take out 60% of the listed Nccl vehicle.

[thetrophyman] 26/7/2018 23:41

So I've listened to today's podcast a number of times and I conclude Hanno is brilliant! Certainly sounding more tense than last weeks interview and I suspect felt he had to counter the written comment of MH, which for me has some doubtful undertones. Frustration here at the final stages of a long drawn out mega deal.

[thetrophyman] 26/7/2018 23:31

It was TDJ, call happened like he said...

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 26/7/2018 23:06

Lurker you just try and muddy the waters, GE and CMEC taking a majority stake in Ncondezi Energy is still leaving NCCL with a 20% stake in that power plant, yes they will have to "buy" that stake but their c$35m in back costs will help towards that but NCCL own that. Have a word.

[dailylarma] 26/7/2018 23:03

yesterday or the day before, who was the poster that said he had a chat with HP and was told that everything was on track

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 26/7/2018 23:01

They have working capital until mid 2019."do you think they'll run out of money soon?"

[jon1962] 26/7/2018 22:09

If they were happy with the tariff why have a meeting.Would not be surprised if they try to push for an even better tariff.

[thetrophyman] 26/7/2018 20:52

... so who's been buying today?

[terranadonjohnson] 26/7/2018 20:07

dailylama, nccl funded all the way to June or July 2019.

[terranadonjohnson] 26/7/2018 20:06

there's a difference between take over of NCCL and a buy out of the project by taking a 100% stake.

hanno has repeatedly said that the partners want a majority stake, so if they go 40% each as many think, they take on greater responsibility for the project and a higher proportion of the risk in doing so. nccl with a reduced stake in the project, has reduced responsibility and influence and therefore by extension less exposure to the risk once jda confirmed.

as I see it, a buyout of the project remains possible, leaving nccl and shareholders with a potential windfall before winding up (unless they want to look for other investments). saying that, the project offers massive long term prospects and nccl may want to remain involved

[dailylarma] 26/7/2018 19:41

do you think they'll run out of money soon?

[m1sak] 26/7/2018 18:56

Hanno also mentions that the shareholder loan will be sorted this month.
Something what many have missed.
This needs to be rolled over again and probably will be.
A catalyst for a small recovery going into August.
A delay was becoming inevitable, I suspect a bit of horsetrading will take place at the proposed workshop.

[lurker5] 26/7/2018 17:56

The project company is responsible for owning and operating. But they usually subcontract to an operator like GE's specialist operating service, with an O&M contract (Operating and Maintenance). Power projects sometimes go bust (or the government closes them down) . GE wouldn't want the risk. They'll get their 20% or so return on capital invested in the project (plus whatever margin on supplying the kit) If they bought NCCL as well their return on investment would be well below that.

[divmad] 26/7/2018 17:14

So there is an operating company, not GE or CMEC, that runs the project on a day to day basis when constructed and operational? Who will be this entity in the hundreds of similar power projects worldwide that GE supplies the kit for? And what is the worth of that 25-year contract?

[lurker5] 26/7/2018 16:46

GE is in the business of making kit. Much more profitable than owning and running a power station. It doesn't want the hassle of running an unpredictable coal mine. It gets a better return by investing in just enough of the project to protect its interest in supplying the kit or managing and maintaining its operation. It supplies hundreds of power projects world-wide. It doesn't invest in any of the companies (lke NCC and Kibo) 'sponsoring or 'owning' them. It doesn't need to waste the limited capital it has by doing so.

[yogaboy] 26/7/2018 16:35

Why shouldn't GEC contemplate a bid for NCCL lurker? Any listed company is potentially buyable, especially by one with a six thousand times bigger MC.

[lurker5] 26/7/2018 16:15

Important podcast phraseology. When Hanno says GE/CMEC taking a stake in the 'business' - he means the Tete 'project' - not the NCCL 'company' (LSE board has fantasies of GE taking over the listed NCCL. That would be nonsense.) Hanno does correct himself at one point by saying 'GE etc taking 'equity stake' in the project. But fantasising being what it is, some will mishear !

[m1sak] 26/7/2018 16:04

And if that is right, then Financial Close must be targeted far sooner than the 12-18mnths that was mentioned a few weeks ago in a RNS.
Construction can start the day after FC. They must be confident of getting over the next few hurdles.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 26/7/2018 15:17

EDM power document is out on twitter.... Tete 300MW planned plant commences construction 2019 which ties in with the #NCCL project and timelines outlined on the @VoxPodcast today...

[novicetrade68] 26/7/2018 14:11

Hanno :'the key thing is that the proposal hasn't been rejected, quite the opposite and we're now being asked to move to the next level'.

[thetrophyman] 26/7/2018 13:51

I'd like to have a beer with Hanno, sounds like a decent chap :)

[thetrophyman] 26/7/2018 13:33

Hanno talking on today's Vox markets podcast - skip to 18:25