Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[m1sak] 01/7/2017 23:10

And don`t forget the potential to export power to SA and surrounding countries.

[m1sak] 01/7/2017 16:38

Hear! Hear!

Add more coal exports from Tete and we are on our way to solving the moaning from the detractors.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 01/7/2017 08:32

"Thursday's statement looks like an opening gambit in restructuring talks. It stresses the "broadly positive economic developments" that have taken place since the government's meeting with its creditors in London in October, when Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane had explained the impossibility of honouring the Ematum, Proindicus and MAM loans, and hence the need to restructure all of them.The GGMB noted the appreciation of the Mozambican currency, the metical, by about 34 per cent since October as a result of "sound monetary policies and a recovery in exports". Net international reserves had increased substantially, and there was now the prospect of the payment of massive capital gains tax resulting from the sale by the Italian energy company ENI of a large stake in the Rovuma Basin gasfields to the US hydrocarbon giant ExxonMobil.Taking Maleiane's October briefing as a basis, the GGMD calculates that the government's debt repayment capacity over the next five years has improved by some 850 million dollars (which, coincidentally or not, is exactly the size of the initial Ematum loan)."Furthermore", the statement adds, "the contingent liabilities on the government balance sheet would be substantially reduced by disavowal of the purported guarantees"."The combination of the improved economic trajectory and an appropriate response to the findings of the Kroll report provide a path for Mozambique to re-establish credibility in the international financial markets", the GGMD argues."

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 17:07

Oh I know what's influencing the share price and it has nothing to do with sovereign debt or macro economics. It's called sentiment, AIM and rainbow chasing.

[lurker5] 30/6/2017 14:49

clock. Don't you want to know what might be influencing your share price ?

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 12:55

Yawn. Same rhetoric. You seem to have a very bearish view and are unwilling to see any other. Oh but you bought in didn't you recently? Strange thing for someone who has such strong reservations about the government and / or NCCL though you have been beating the same drum for months now. Yawn.

[katylied] 30/6/2017 12:44

Quite, lurker5. The SEP (chinese state owned) current luke-warm attitude to investing in the project, reflects both a lack of confidence in Moz Gov finances and probably solidarity with other foreign interests (Paris Club), to put pressure on Frelimo, to clean up this debt mess. The IMF should be meeting with the Moz Gov soon to discuss the Kroll findings. It would be nice to think the IMF might play hard-ball, demand heads roll, and force the Moz Gov to act in line with bond-holder wishes (refer 3018). Unfortunately, the IMF rarely inspires confidence and under the leadership of (convicted criminal) Christine LeGarde, nowadays inspires even less...

[lurker5] 30/6/2017 12:06

Yes of course the gov wants power generation. But overseas investors won't finance it if there are doubts about the country's ability to guarantee and repay all the debts needed.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 11:40

SPIC in Portuguese-speaking countries: 340MW coal-fired power plant in Pampa, Brazil, Ncondezi plant in Mozambique http://suo.im/3Y8FfX

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 11:39

Gov tell EDM step up production, encouraging public and private investment in electricity generation projects #NCCLhttp://clubofmozambique.com/news/minister-calls-for-increased-power-generation-aim/?platform=hootsuite

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 11:36

Yawn. Same rhetoric from same individuals. All historic and very convenient that you tie this in with NCCL terminating exclusivity with SEP even though SEP are still talking about it as "their" project? Convenient no?

[lurker5] 30/6/2017 11:20

clock - the point is in the reference to international loans at cheaper prices once this is resolved. Any hint that the Moz govt won't be able to borrow abroad or only at distress rates will put off any other lender, be it Sep or whoever. The Moz govt has to guarantee the electricity contracts as well as many other things. It seems obvious it is the Moz govt problem that has caused SEP to drag its feet. If only the co would tell us ! We could then see where the true risk / reward lies.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 10:34

Right, and you're point being?

[katylied] 30/6/2017 10:32

António Carlos do Rosário is director of the State Information and Security Service (SISE), CEO of the 3 dodgy companies - PROINDICUS(2012), EMATUM(2013), MAM(2014) and 'Person A' at the heart of the Mozambique debt scandal...

Mozambique Hidden-Debt Companies' Head Defiant After Kroll Probe

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 10:12

Right, and you're point being?

[katylied] 30/6/2017 09:21

Mozambique Bondholders Lay Down Terms Ahead of Restructuring

"...It is evident that there is no basis -- in either Mozambican or English law -- for the Mozambique government to honor the purported guarantees of the Proindicus and MAM loans,” according to the statement. “Disavowal of those purported guarantees and the liquidation of ProIndicus, MAM, and Ematum is the appropriate restructuring that needs to take place to clean up the system, to insulate the government balance sheet from further liabilities, and to restore access to external financing at the lowest cost to Mozambique...”

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 08:34

As for the Moz Gov debt I'm having deja vu. Or someone has an agenda.What has "mozambiques debt problem" got anything to do with this? The partner is sourcing the debt, not Moz. Bottom line is Ncondezi is very much in play. Those who lost out to Sep initially won't want to lose out second time around. They probably can't believe they're getting a second bite at the cherry to be honest. Conversely SEP have spent 4 years and millions on this project and won't want competitors stealing what they believe is their project. Be prepared for anything these next 4 weeks inc a full takeover.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/6/2017 08:31

You seem to have cherry picked all the potential negatives from that RNS and completely ignored the positives.Even a cursory examination of that RNS indicates several, so in not commenting on these your argument is unbalanced."The Power Project is at an advanced level of development with the majority of technical work completed and advanced form PPA and PCA documents being agreed. Ncondezi has launched a new partner process and expects any new partner to provide financial support to the project both at the developmental stages to Financial Close as well as during construction. It is important to highlight that the new partner search is in its early stages and that there are no binding agreements in place with no certainty that additional funding will be raised. The Company intends to engage with a range of potential financing partners with the objective of securing additional development capital for the costs that will not be covered by a new partner, including select corporate overheads. The Directors' will monitor the monthly cash burn rate to ensure the Group operates within its cash resources for as long as possible.""The Company has substantially advanced the PPA and PCA through previous negotiations with EDM and Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy. EDM has indicated its willingness to continue negotiations once the Company introduces an acceptable strategic partner. There is a shortage of power in the region, with Mozambique currently exporting power to South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana and Namibia. Each of these countries could provide a potential credible power off-taker for the Power Project either as a substitute or as additional power off-taker for an expanded power plant. The Company monitors this potential closely and has responded to a Request for Information ('RFI') from the South African government regarding potential cross border power supply. "" The Power Project is one of the most advanced projects in the region, making competition from nearby projects more difficult due to the time they require to catch up. Competing gas projects are mainly located in the southern part of Mozambique and are not able to supply the portion of the Mozambican power grid that the Power Project is to connect to in the north of the country. Additionally, being a thermal coal power station project, the Group can implement commissioning of the power plant faster than competing hydroelectric projects which typically take 2-3 years longer to commission. ""The Group believes that it can mitigate a significant part of any development risks of the Power Project through partnership with an internationally recognised partner in the power sector with the prerequisite development and operational expertise. The Group will look to appoint an owners engineer with the appropriate experience and track record to manage the development phase of the power plants in southern Africa. The Group is working closely with select mining contractors in relation to the mine development.""A Transmission Agreement Heads of Terms has been signed with EDM and the Mozambican Government to ensure that available transmission infrastructure allocation is secured early and that proper evacuation infrastructure and capacities are available to the Power Project in line with the Group's strategy. The Group will explore and develop all potential future transmission options including new transmission capacity in Mozambique as well as other countries including Malawi and Zambia."

[katylied] 30/6/2017 08:24

"...The 2016 financial year was expected to be a milestone year for the Company with the signing of the binding JDA with SEP in January 2016. Disappointingly and despite the Company’s best efforts, the SEP Investment Conditions to complete JDA had not been met by the end of the financial year..."

First time I think, the BOD has admitted (plain language) that they have still not met the full terms of the JDA with SEP. The main issue will be the lack of a signed power offtake with EDM (the previous agreement having lapsed, after extensions, by the start of 2016). This is currently, certainly a consequence of the Moz Gov debt situation, with EDM unable to secure an underwriter for a power offtake agreement. It may be that the 'Gov decree' referred to in a previous RNS status update, is the only way around this, though strangely this is not mentioned in this annual report.

"...with all the technical work substantially complete, advanced form Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) and Power Concession Agreement (“PCA”) negotiated, an “in principle” agreement with EDM on the electricity tariff and the mine concession and all key Environmental and Social Impact Assessment studies either awarded or approved..."

But crucially, these agreements are still not signed with EDM. The statement below makes the point very clearly, when it refers to the need for a 'credit-worthy' off-taker.

"...In the event that the Group is unable to renew the commercial deal with EDM or finalise the PPA on acceptable terms, the Group will need to secure an alternative credible power off-taker(s) to raise finance for the power plant project. There is no guarantee that, in such circumstances, the Group will be able to secure a credit worthy off-taker for the full output with the plant..."

Meanwhile funding is very precarious. The BoD must deliver a new partner before September (or reconcile positively with SEP). Given the current very low MktCap, settling the current loans via equity issue (see below) will be very bad news for other PIs...

"...The Group will need to extend, refinance or settle the Shareholder Loan in equity by their maturity date, of which US$0.96m of the principal was lent by Directors. In addition, further funding will be required to meet liabilities as they fall due after September 2017. The Directors are exploring a number of funding and working capital solutions beyond the 2 September 2017 maturity of the Shareholder Loan. This will to a large extent depend on positive progress being made with the partner search process ahead of this date..."

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 27/6/2017 17:56

People selling here could easily be selling at profit from a couple of weeks back and moving on rather than waiting for July update. Don't look like T3+ trades IMO.

[novicetrade68] 27/6/2017 16:40

Judging by all the sells yesterday and today I get the impression either a lot of punters bought on margin or got bored holding when the share price didn't hit 10p pronto.

I really think this is a share NOT to be bought on margin and don't like seeing people lose money bailing in the 3s yesterday and today, whilst paying 4 or 5 on Friday.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 26/6/2017 12:25

I'm having deja vu. Or someone has an agenda.What has "mozambiques debt problem" got anything to do with this? The partner is sourcing the debt, not Moz. Bottom line is Ncondezi is very much in play. Those who lost out to Sep initially won't want to lose out second time around. They probably can't believe they're getting a second bite at the cherry to be honest. Conversely SEP have spent 4 years and millions on this project and won't want competitors stealing what they believe is their project. Be prepared for anything these next 4 weeks inc a full takeover.

[katylied] 26/6/2017 11:37

A summary of the Kroll MozGov debt audit summary...

Mozambique: Kroll Makes Clear All Are Guilty

[nav_mike] 26/6/2017 07:45

Thanks for the two Tete references Mr.Orange....nothing that long term holders havent heard before, but maybe just maybe this time the political will is solid.

If nothing else, it should spur third parties to take a look at the very advanced NCCL project

[123js] 26/6/2017 07:32

Thanks for the steer on google Clock... here's hoping this tale has move twists and turns to come!