Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 06/3/2017 09:39

Signing the JDA during Veronica Macamo's five day visit to China would be a very good piece of PR for Mozambique and reaffirm the strength of the links between the two countries - is this the week?

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 25/2/2017 12:19

Great summary from LSERight. My views on investment case . 1) Stellar management team with representatives on the board from significant shareholders who in total represented a disclosed 51pc of shares 2) largest shareholder AFC - a huge African infrastructure investor who had supported the company through shareholder loans and could easily provide further support or potential buyout of NCCL's stake through its JV with Harith 3) partner with SEP, a huge power partner and conglomerate. Part of SEP's vision is to double in size through overseas expansion. They have this project in their sights. Due to sign an unconditional JDA which could potentially find NCCL to first power. Bringing all the debt and $60m to NCCL at project level. Will also bring significant expertise in driving down costs on OPEX and capex 4) Area where power plant is due to be built a huge coal area and infrastructure in place already (interconnecting power lines, railways and roads (mostly in place due to investment by Vale)). Also earmarked to be a new industrial zone by Moz govt 5) project economics show >$100m EBITDA per year. Capex $504m of which SEP will fund or find funding for vast majority (all debt and 60pc equity). On 85:15 debt:equity split NCCL should be fully funded to first power 6) project capable of expansion to 1800MW 7) NCCL will still own 100pc of the mine which they can a) sell b) subcontract c) project finance and keep d) expand on higher coal prices (TBD) 8) there will be huge awareness on deal closing with SEP as project will be hugely derisked - expect more PR and with low free float (30-40pc perhaps) this could rerate v quickly.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 24/2/2017 22:41

Nice 350k buy today they seemed confident...

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/2/2017 21:42

Tick tick tick...

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/2/2017 18:53

What a sad life you must lead.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/2/2017 16:40

Yes it's looking very promising and this trading range ahead of news certainly much more pleasing!!

[novicetrade68] 23/2/2017 16:35

Nice recovery again today once some sellers got cleared - just like yesterday actually. May be we'll get an attempt at the 12p-15p range rather sooner than later, let's see what tomorrow brings.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/2/2017 07:12

Shame only two boards and only one moderated.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/2/2017 07:12

Just ignore and use the other moderated board, or LSE.

[jfreshfield] 23/2/2017 06:47

Tidy.

I am finding this a little boring. Repeatedly posting the same post when I could quite happily repeatedly post why in bought into the share. Try something different or not at all, or please just grow up. It isn't clever. I have been investing for 20 years or so and am having a rare dabble on AIM on what I think will not end up an AIM stock over time. You should focus you're attention on positive things, you might be a little more happy

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/2/2017 06:47

To reiterate a post from LSE"Ncondezi does not leak. It never has leaked and it never will. Just one day before the JDA was announced, Brooks Macdonald Asset Management released an RNS to say it had sold out, so this ship is tight. Meanwhile, Liberum, NCCL's broker, is completely no nonsense. Unlike many on AIM, it plays by the book. Others would happily let a stock soar 200%+, knowing full well that placees were getting their pound of flesh or rampers were pumping while dumping. But, more importantly, this speeding ticket was issued to stop any possible associations between meteoric rise and news. Imagine how the company would feel if the share price had risen 300% then SEP sign off one of the biggest deal of its kind in Africa? This negotiation is between two sovereign entities. You simply do not risk it by letting the cat out of the bag or being seen to be reckless with sensitive information. So what about the rise? Why has it happened? Well there are three clear drivers: Firstly, we know news is due this quarter. (The RNS does not contradict that). Each RNS since last January has specifically set "targets" for the terms to be signed off, not "deadlines". In December, the wording changed to "expected" and we know Mozambique has made it very clear they want construction to begin this year. Word is now getting around that we are closing in on a massive event in the company's history. Secondly, the technicals are insanely strong and this is the sole reason why popular chartist Nicola Duke has taken her first ever punt on an AIM stock. She has 33,000 followers on Twitter, so the impact of this will be obvious to many. And thirdly, the freefloat is tiny (perhaps less than 30%) so the scramble for shares has a heightened effect on the share price. How many market cap peers gain 50% on a raft of piddly 10k, 25k and 50k trades? Very few I would imagine. So there we have it, in the most simplistic terms. NCCL is catching the interest of new investors and it's rerating. There are only a handful of vocal Twitter supporters and only a few more on this board so this is happening naturally and exponentially. Just like the company, the new money is still under the radar and detached from the shenanigans customary to so many AIM outfits. Consequently, I expect further strength next week and leading up to the RNS we've been waiting patiently for"

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 22/2/2017 14:40

Wonder if we will get a chart update this week?

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 21/2/2017 11:34

New chart on Vox from Donks in line with Nic Dukes."NCCL finally broke above 8p on Friday (backed up with decent volume) that has capped prices for the past 3 years. The price stalled at 11.5p which was capped by the top of the daily channel and a tight zone of fib confluence. Note in the short term there is a high probability that the price may drop a further 10-15% to retest the 8p breakout area before making a move higher targeting the 15p range extension target"

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 20/2/2017 18:18

Some very large buys today, perhaps the same individual.

[novicetrade68] 20/2/2017 17:59

Nice to see that selling met buying today. And the larger sells equally met larger buys, with a nice 200k purchase towards the close. Whoever purchased that number would no doubt like to see a decent return on that investment, just like the ones who bought the 100ks and 250k today. Since so many commodity plays are jumping at the moment, this may well have further to go - hopefully.

[guitars4stars] 20/2/2017 14:21

Consolidate / SharePrice drop I know what you mean...great?