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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ncondezi Energy Limited | NCCL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.825 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.825 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 13/2/2023 07:35 by danmart2 A name change, hilarious.Is this their way of saying the coal project is officially dead even though it’s likely to have been a non starter for years but it was nice excuse for achieving nothing other than take retail investor money? What are the chances this solar project ends up the same as the previous solar project aka owned by one of the major shareholders? There are so many red flags with this company, do your research! |
Posted at 10/1/2023 22:39 by yasx Lurker,You need to undertake some basic research. You were on here for years dismissing my well laid out case that the coal project would never proceed with NCCL's involvement - all your mutterings about NPV, debt financing and how it would yield hundreds of millions for NCCL were laughable. Eventually you indicate well, things can go wrong. Now you are plugging the same baseless nonsense for the solar project. Things can sometimes go wrong for investors - but, in your case every Co. you have promoted goes wrong. What happened to Xtract? Greatland Gold? The list is endless. Let me put it another way. For all the essays you have produced, have you ever called one right? No, thought not. Failure after failure. If you had a smallcap short fund, it would be one of the best performing funds on the market. I jest not. |
Posted at 22/12/2022 18:07 by danmart2 Lurker5 much like ace ventura11 have lots of these NCCL confetti shares to get rid off, new investors welcome. |
Posted at 22/12/2022 13:24 by pwhite73 I don't but I know the effect the sector has on private investor shares. Read the RNS again there's a part pertaining to a capital raise from NCCL to close the deal."capital raising for Ncondezi's equity contribution towards the Solar Project at Financial Close" |
Posted at 22/12/2022 12:45 by lurker5 All power projects need external finance. Its a standard investment for long term investors needing areliable - govt or offtaker - backed revenue. Sounds as though you don't know much about the sector |
Posted at 16/9/2022 07:50 by nav_mike Jeez wept - most investors have known the coal project is on 'perma-hold' for ages, thats why the price is where it isSolar appears to be the way forward so thats where the focus Yes it sucks balls to have wasted all that time, but coal doesnt seem popular in Moz currenyly, They do however still have the need for a sh*t ton of electricity |
Posted at 20/7/2022 09:05 by danmart2 It’s feasible NCCL could be finished by October.I don’t think that will be the case. Why? While the board can keep creating shares to raise funds they can keep the gravy train going. Gravy train? Look at how much the CEO is being paid and has been paid, what a lifestyle! The info is all a click away in the various reports. But let’s talk about red flags instead of solar and coal. Why? Because a big red flag to current and potential investors is waving in your face. What is this red flag? The red flag is none of the pump and dumpers who use ADVFN & LSE forums or Twitter want to discuss Seritza. What is Seritza? The company behind the latest loan Research Seritza and then tell me why this isn’t a 0.001p share? Take 1p while it lasts is my opinion If those promoting NCCL won’t discuss it, won’t research it, won’t address it, then take notice of the flag. |
Posted at 16/2/2022 17:20 by lurker5 From an article last Sept. A bit out of date - but relevantAnother for a potentially significant share profit is Ncondezi Energy (LON:NCCL) which still appears to be on track to build its 300MW Tete Mozambique power project. Although the vital tariff agreement is very late, an equally vital agreement with its Chinese partner (CMEC) for the EPC (engineering procurement and construction) contract has been signed, which will have finalised the price (subject to inflation and other cost movements) for those elements of the $1.1bn total project cost. (Legal and financing costs are other significant parts). Along with the indicative terms for project financing already provided by Chinese banks, this will have cemented the inputs to the tariff calculations. At the same time, the world bank has announced the signing of a contract to build the Mozambique end of the Mozambique-Malawi Regional interconnector, confirming the Government’s intention to build up its infrastructure in that area, where Tete is the project most advanced to generate the power for it. As in many such projects in the developing world, NCCL as the ‘sponsor’ Which means that, unlike for Kibo (even before it was forced through financial incompetence to exit the African power market) potential value for NCCL shareholders is still substantial. Before financial close (which is expected in the first half of next year) exact figures can’t be calculated. But the company’s latest projected economics show that the $1.1bn capital cost would, approximately, generate an average annual $175m EBITDA over 25 years – leaving a total of $1.9bn net cash to equity shareholders, of which NCCL’s agreed 42% share would be $799m. Missing from the equation is how the contributions to that $1.1bn will be met. NCCL has indicated that it expects 70% will be met by a project loan from the Chinese banks already signed up, and it is repayment of that loan that accounts for most of the difference between the annual $175m EBITDA and the annual $76m flowing to equity shareholders. That means that, in order to earn its $799m total, NCCL has to contribute 12.6% or $140m up front, and it has various ways of doing so. What follows is therefore my own – very rough – speculation, because NCCL hasn’t yet announced its intentions, and a variety of permutations are possible for the style of funding including (unlikely in my view) that Chinese investors will buy out NCCL’s share. About $30m could be met from what it is owed by CMEC for NCCL’s share of past work, and perhaps another $10-20m from the development fee it will be paid (although that is speculation, as no details have been announced). NCCL might divert some of that to fund its new solar power venture, but if it raises (say) $100m through new equity, the question is what investors will pay for shares whose returns NCCL will by then be in a position to forecast. Such a calculation is fraught with difficulty, but my own conservative estimate is that they might pay 5c per new share, so that on the 2,440m total then in issue, cash earnings per share would be (on average) 1.3c and their own yield 26%. If they pay 10c per share, the total would fall to 1,440m and cash earnings per share would be 2.2c, meaning their yield would be 22%. Some might think my calculation is over-cautious and that investors would accept a lower return and therefore pay a higher price. But it shows how sensitive such a calculation is. In any case, I started my articles on mining shares by stating that, in addition to pure recommendations, they would concentrate on how investors should approach valuing them and the pitfalls to look out for. In this case caution is warranted because finding investors to invest in African coal projects won’t be easy, and it may be that the only interest will be from pension etc funds looking for an annuity style return. They demand what looks to equity investors a very high return. In any event, NCCL might have other options – except that I don’t think CMEC will buy the whole company as some hope. Power plant builders never do, because owning coal mines and limited life generating plants is not where they make their money. Building them is. Even so, my crude calculations (subject to many further unknowns) show there is a lot of scope for the shares to recover from their exceptionally low lows, which could have been partly engendered by recent placees ‘flipping̵ |
Posted at 29/12/2021 12:05 by yasx I see the Neanderthals have arrived in their droves. Surely stinger and Ace are the same person since it is hard to imagine two single cells appearing on a thread for investors.As for Ncondezi, nothing much to report. However, I recently bought a few - this might be entirely at odds with my oft stated stance that this is essentially worthless. Readers may recall I pointed out a while ago that dud stocks with no prospects almost invariably tend to stage a significant bounce prior to the inevitable demise - that s likely the case here. A long position was merited last week since it was plainly clear from the trades that a notifiable holder (Green) was out (announced formally this morning) and with a significant seller out of the way and the stock having reached all time lows within a whisker of nil pence, the stage is set for a rally. There are a few plums indicating that Fletcher has bought some shares over the past week or so - let me put that myth to bed since as a Director he can't given the Co. is a closed period. As it happens, I last week had a long chat with a representative of the Co. Green Energy have sold because, apparently, there is a change of investment policy. As for the coal project, I sense nothing new other than oft repeated optimism viewed through the ebullient lens only Hanno can see through. There was supposed to be an update prior to year end, but, it is my vie there is very little of substance to announce other than reaffirming things are not formally declared abandoned. An update was being worked upon, but it ss not certain it will arrive by the end of the year. I pressed very hard on the sale of the solar project and the spurious sale of the same. One reason put forward is that investors did not like the idea of the Co. participating on the solar project, instead preferring to focus on the coal business, thus necessitating a sale since the Co. could not raise a meaningful amount to fund the solar side of affairs. But, there is one rather large problem with this thesis - investors were expressing vigorous dissent at the outset when Hanno decided reneables were a key focus oif the Co. They did not listen to shareholders then but proceed over two years to raise/spend some £3M on the solar project, only then to sell it back to a Director who just happened to be down over a million pounds on his failed investment in NCCL. In summary, do I still think NCCL will go bust next year - absolutely. Will NCCL ever be able to raise circa 100-150M for the coal project either at Co. or project level - not a chance. In fact, I put this to them - all I got back was that the Co. does recognise this issue and the scale of it. But, is there a trade on the long side to be taken here on the basis of the greater fool theory? I think so. Hence why I went long and so far things are turning out as expected. I hope for 1.5-2p, but the situation is fluid. Good luck chaps |
Posted at 28/6/2021 22:46 by yasx lurker528 Jun '21 - 12:21 - 8671 of 8677All indications are that it is still being progressed..... -------------------- Not so lurker - all indications are that this has fallen by the wayside and there is little chance of anything meaningful happening. What is absurd is that you can't see it (I respectfully suggest you confine yourself to your banal seminars on the fact that NPV targets ought to be rendered moribund when it comes to determination of appropriate valuations for a Co. since you have very little understanding of how a Co. with little to offer will seek to entice potential investors by dangling a perennial carrot). The Co. will not have formally been advised there is no project, but it will have a damn good idea why it is not progressing to closure. Let us examine the language used in 'official' publications in support of the main project (forget the proactive guff, that is promotional hype and of nil significance). We won't go too far back with the dangling of the carrot when it appeared clear there was no tunnel, less still light at the end of it for the main project - we will begin chronologically in October 2019 when the Co. announced the foray into Hanno's solar battery nonsense: 23.10.19 Whilst the Ncondezi Project remains the Company's primary focus, the investment in the C&I renewables and battery storage energy sector offers a strategic advance into a new growth sector. Of course, throwing the main project in there enabled the lackluster news of the battery project to be better absorbed by disgruntled shareholders - moreover, it enabled Hanno to get a few more funds for 'working capital, as follows: The Company has also put in place a working capital facility for US$750,000 for the main Ncondezi Project which is provided by a company owned by a trust of which newly appointed CEO, Hanno Pengilly, is a potential beneficiary and that This puts the Company in a strong financial position to deliver on its work programme over the next 3 to 9 months." Of course by now it was becoming clear that all the attention was being directed to the battery project, much ot the chagrin of shareholders. But Hanno could not concede there was no coal project goose that would lay a golden egg since this would see investors leave in their droves to the detriment of the battery sideshow. Thus the theme of 'discussions are progressing and will update in due course' was bound to continue, and did... 12.12.19 NCCL selects Synergy Consulting as preferred financial advisor to prepare Project financial model and finalise tariff submission and negotiation process with EDM with finalisation of tariff negotiations during H1 2020. Well, it seemed to investors thing were moving along nicely and a deal was soon to be crystallised. After all they had even hired specialists in Synergy to strengthen the team. Synergy seemed the ideal candidate since apparently "in August 2019 the Company and its strategic partners launched a competitive process to select a financial advisor. Following a detailed evaluation between the Company and its strategic partners of the proposals submitted, Synergy was selected as the preferred advisor." Clearly a team chosen entirely on merit - although more careful observers will have noted Aman Sachdeva, a director of the Company was also a director, founder and majority shareholder of Synergy. How very convenient for him! With the considerable expertise of Synergy, NCCL repeatedly advised in subsequent announcements that tariff negotiations would be finalised in H1 2020. More ebullience was expressed in January when NCCL announced serious intentions with regard to the project "The updated financial model with supporting documentation from leading global players in the power and finance sectors further elevates the Project as a leading advanced stage development project in Mozambique, and sends a clear message to Government, EDM and potential investors as to the serious intentions of the Company and its Partners to deliver the Project" How very impressive you might think - however, it was all promotional guff since Hanno is now distancing himself/NCCL from this project as being a direction not to steer towards based on the most recent announcement - all that serious intent disappeared like the dust in the wind. However, as late as March 2020 the Co. continued to maintain tariff negotiation finalisation remained on track to be delivered during H1 2020, with the now oft repeated line that gives lurker sufficient comfort that things are rosy, being "the Company continues to make good progress towards delivering on its objectives...." However, by that stage, interspersed with the tariff carrot were updates on the battery project - the direction was shifting, initially in a subtle manner, but more marked in recent times away from the main project to this sideshow which has now become the main objective. It was even suggested that this project was so badly needed that it was 'critical' for the region, describing it as "critical to promote economic transformation and social development in a region with some of the lowest electricity access rates in the world" - (it is so critical that the Govt has not even bothered as yet to properly entertain it) Late March was the first hint that there was no likelihood of the tariff negotiations being finalised by anything like the end of H1 20. Here is what Hanno stated at the end of March 20, tacitly accepting there would be no favourable outcome, as follows: 31.3.20 Although difficult to set firm commitments in the existing global climate and travel restrictions, the current target is to finalise the tariff negotiations by the end of Q2 2020 From this point onwards, the solar show simply took over - it then became a case of updates on the solar project with a line or two dedicated to the tariff update, which became a case of periodically repeating things were still progressing well but no firm timelines. Despite having earlier in March 2020 essentially conceded that there would be a delay, Hanno was at it again in April reaffirming that things were on track for delivery in H1 20. This, I opine, was merely to enable holders to embrace the solar project with less agitation. Then followed another placing, again for working capital - only this time it was not merely for the finalisation of the tariff but also for "progressing its strategy in the high growth Commercial and Industrial solar and battery storage sector" Can readers now see that the progressive shift from the main project to the solar show has been simmering for quite some time - there was no abrupt end to the main project with the optimism slowly being toned down and solar being sold to investors as the next big thing. However, the Co. was unlikely to pull the plug on the project since that could remove the main lever that enables raising of funds for the battery project, so, in a manner to which shareholders are now accustomed, Hanno repeated again in August 2020 that "Tariff negotiations are continuing in parallel and are progressing [sic ] positivly. " Let us pause for a moment - the matter was supposed to be finalised in H1 2020, at all stages holders were advised things were progressing nicely, yet here they were in August 2020 with no finalisation of the tariff but still being told things were progressing positively. What progression had there been? It was regressing each month, with money pouring out and nothing meaningful to show for it. Another mnth, another generic update. In Sept. Hanno announced there was no change to the timeline for tariff negotiations, which apparently were still, yes, you guessed it, "progressing positively". Fast forward a few months and another placing, again for working capital and again "to cover corporate costs to complete the tariff negotiations". I think it is becoming clear to readers how this carrot is very important for purposes of raising funds since absent that there is no chance Hanno could get these placings away for the solar battery project alone. Further bolstering the case to holders that the project is on track is the prospect of historical costs being factored into the equation, quantum of which will be fully determined upon the finalisation of the elusive tariff!! It gets worse. Synergy, having been advising the Co. on the tariff finalisation (and, clearly the Co. failed miserably on that still not having concluded anything tangible) went on to be beneficiaries of yet another agreement, this time to advise on, yet again, the tariff, but also to provide services for " potential support for capital raising for the Company's renewable energy strategy in the high growth African Commercial and Industrial ("C&I") sector." Now, it becomes even more obvious which direction this is taking. Again, the appointment of Synergy for this additional agreement was a related party transaction since Aman Sachdeva is a director of the Company but also a director, founder and majority shareholder of Synergy. A year on from submission of the tariff proposal, Hanno updated the market in March of this year with the characteristic "Positive tariff negotiations continue..." Some like Lurker think this is a epochal development redolent of a favourable imminent outcome, but the reality is it is a regurgitation of what has been stated for nearly two years. The optimism was diluted further still in a more recent RNS. A long march from the definitive closure by H1 2020, the Co. was now stating "Whilst we remain confident the Ncondezi Project offers a uniquely advanced stage proposal with a competitive solution to Mozambique's energy generation targets we continue to await formal feedback from EDM and the Government". No timelines were provided, suggesting nothing is/was imminent. Finally, Hanno gave his biggest signal yet that the main project was on the back burner, or at least that is my interpretation of it. Last month he declared "the transition to renewables and carbon neutrality is accelerating, and Africa stands out as a key market with the highest energy costs and lowest energy access rates". Read that again. So, the project has gone from being one critical for Mozambique to one that the Co. acknowledges is witnessing a transition to a different sphere. Make of it what you will. But, for Lurker to suggest it is immature to think the project is not progressing positively simply shows how little he understands.What 'indications' has he noted to which he refers, save the same phrase 'progressing positively' despite being more than a year overdue but with now no firm timeline and acceptance of a shift to a different sector. Stay in your lane I say to those that think things are progressing nicely ....since the evidence is fairly clear to the contrary to those reading between the lines, far less to those soaking up the hype like a sponge. |
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