Ncc Share Discussion Threads

[blueball] 22/2/2017 11:01

My 80p target in sight.

[spoole5] 22/2/2017 10:58

Been on a run like that before myself. Makes you not want to be a PI anymore. Feel for you.

[mw8156] 22/2/2017 10:53

HAYT, RCN, NCC it's turning out to be a vintage year!

[effortless cool] 22/2/2017 10:49

Writing that down helped clear my judgement. This is not the story I bought into (via ACM) - I have sold.

Good luck to holders.

[effortless cool] 22/2/2017 10:44

I'm struggling to reach a conclusion on this.

Bear points
- Management are hopelessly out of their depth in running a business of this size and complexity (and we did get early warning of this with the .trust debacle).
- Management do not yet have anything approaching a decent handle on the finances and there is a strong possibility of more bad news to come.
- Market cap is still around £250m and valuations are high on most metrics; there is plenty of room for further falls.

Bull points
- The escrow business has not suffered problems and represents a very solid core to the valuation.
- The assurance business is in a very hot sector and offers significant upside if they can sort out the issues.
- A takeover bid is a strong possibility, and with lame duck management and angry shareholders is likely to succeed. The USD:GBP rate makes this an attractive opportunity for a US firm wanting to enter the European market.

Trouble is, I had much the same list of bull and bear points one week ago, when the share price was twice as high.

[miahkaysor] 22/2/2017 10:34

£1+ here we come

[qs99] 22/2/2017 10:31

personally think the fall looks overdone DYOR, but if it is still on to make over £30m and with net debt relatively low at just over c.£40m, in this sort of space is it really worth a 1/3rd of what it was a few months ago? Must be some strategic value in there for a competitor IMO? as I said DYOR, this is not without its risks as two profit warnings often lead to a third, but they are not from what I can see forecasting a loss, merely lower profits? Have tucked a few away on that basis at 90p/.....gla

[spoole5] 22/2/2017 10:24

Could be quite a few shorts closing. Surely the easy money has been made.

[quidzinn] 22/2/2017 10:22

In for the bounce @ 89.25p

Q

[dontay] 22/2/2017 10:20

After this debacle If you were a company CEO looking for a cyber security protection system ... would you go to NCC?

[2lb] 22/2/2017 10:17

The CEO took out £11m in cash on 18th March 2014 so I wouldn't feel too sorry for him especially when this is added to the millions more in other share sales, salary and bonus payments with a current run rate in excess of £1m a year.

The issues with NCC centre on the acquisition of Fox which was at a crazy multiple and driven by the vanity of the BoD wanting to get to a billion pound valuation, with the strategy behind that goal not thought through. Accumuli also looks like a poor acquisition in terms of how it has been integrated, or not, into the group.

The rate and scale of acquisitions quickly outgrew the ability of the senior management within NCC to manage. Integration of acquisitions is hard and most fail, look at the stats generally, so whilst the plan was ambitious it was also out of control.

There remains a very strong and profitable core to NCC but they need to get back to basics a little, bring in some better quality senior management who will challenge the CEO and Board and also a much stronger Chairman and NED's who who have, it would appear, always been far to chummy with the Exec directors and have therefore not applied the level of governance and scrutiny required of a FTSE 250 company.

I do see a decent recovery play here now as 90p really does look like a massive overreaction but there surely must be changes over the coming months......

[ileeman] 22/2/2017 10:16

Escrow division still performing well.

[aishah] 22/2/2017 10:15

Techmarketview:

NCC revises FY guidance 20% downwards

AIM-listed cyber security consultancy and risk mitigation specialist NCC Group revised its expectations for the current financial year following poor third quarter performance and cancelled its capital markets event scheduled for today.

Management are now forecasting that the Group’s adjusted EBITDA for the year ending 31st May 2017 will fall approximately 20% short of the £45.5-£47.5m predicted last December. If those fears are realised, EBITDA would fall somewhere in the region £36.4-£38m, at least 13% down on the prior year’s figure of £43.7m.

The Group's previously strong performance has funded a lot of expansion activity but the firm was hit by the cancellation of three large contracts and the deferral of a fourth worth £14-18m in H1. Sales activity for security consulting, software vulnerability testing and web performance across the UK, Europe and North America does not appear to have picked up in Q3 as NCC struggles to execute on new cyber security contracts.

The company said that its Escrow business (which represents roughly half of the group’s revenue) continues to perform “in line with expectations” and will initiate a strategic review of its operations in a bid to halt further problems.

We think public and private sector demand for cyber security software and services will remain strong in 2017 and NCC Group is well placed to capitalise. However some organisations may be putting consultancy projects on hold until the regulatory uncertainty caused by Brexit, the EU’s forthcoming general data protection regulation (GDPR) and Network and Information Security (NIS) directives, whatever “equivalent221; UK legislation will eventually look like, and EU-US data sovereignty issues dissipates.

Market dynamics may also be impacting NCC’s performance, with business lost to other consultancies like PwC, and large SITS suppliers such as BT, HPE and IBM combining advisory projects with product implementation and service delivery.

[asagi] 22/2/2017 10:12

the shares were around twice the price before the Accumuli acquisition.

I've gone long.

Asagi (long NCC)

[ileeman] 22/2/2017 10:07

Yea tsmith predators lurking at this price, and as you say looks like they are clearing a seller shouldnt take long with this volume.

[nearlythere] 22/2/2017 10:07

Given the statements over the past few months regarding outlook, the timing of the RNS looks like panic. After reading the half year report issued on the 19/1/2017. IMO management have no idea what is happening in their markets or the actual state of the company and therefore, for me, any statements on the future financial situation must also be suspect.

As small shareholders we are powerless but IIs will have lost a lot of money and will expect a management team (still being I assume, paid ftsee250 salaries for what is now a low to mid tier small cap company)to make progress soon. How long the IIs are prepared to wait is the question,
IMo the CEO will be taking some phone calls today , attempting to explaining how the company lost 700 million in value in 4 months and why he should keep his job.

I have a very small holding purchased 4 week ago.

[citymohawk] 22/2/2017 10:04

Management do have a lot to answer for. I loved this company back in early 2015 at 180p but never actually came back in after my initial profit take. The good news is that they are still profitable but all that is happening is that the downside risk has been realised. It is now in a territory which can be justified based on cash/earnings. Sad that RC has personally lost a bit of cash over the past few months. I had a buy order on this back in sept2016 at 80p and have now cancelled because I simply have no idea what to expect.

[mazarin] 22/2/2017 09:52

It beggars belief how any 'responsible' company on the Eve of an important presentation (i.e. Capital Markets Day 2017) find themselves in the position of having to cancel their contribution to the event because the BOD only 'just' realised that their 3rd qtr trading results will fall short of 'their' expectations?

[tsmith2] 22/2/2017 09:52

I actually think they are now vulnerable to a bid

[tsmith2] 22/2/2017 09:51

Churn to clear someone, expecting a recovery in the price during course of the day

[igoe104] 22/2/2017 09:30

SOPH are hitting double digit growth, and the share price hitting record highs, so you can`t blame the sector.


management have a lot to answer for.

[she-ra] 22/2/2017 09:28

Could any banking covenants have been broken?

[esther1975] 22/2/2017 09:26

ill think they will wait for the next profit warning before considering a bid!