Ncc Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 27/8/2018 20:21

I had semi planned to go to the AGM but for me 11am in Manchester is not feasible.

Good that they are having it there as it enables one to get a feel of the place and speak to people. Just wish it was later in the day. One NED that would be worth talking to is Jennifer Duvalier- the ex Head of People at ARM -to get her take given that in the webcast Adam Palser correctly stressed that people are key. Also this will be the first outing of the new FD.


I thought the webcast v useful and good to see Adam P in action. He presented himself well and gave coherent answers- although did not answer the very good question as to what yardsticks can outsiders like us use to measure how successful change in company's way of doing things has been. He seemed rather full of himself-although difficult to get from the webcast an accurate reading. I note he has an Oxford PhD and a Stanford MBA and my sense is that he will not allow himself to be pushed around by the Chairman, which in this case is good.
I have had a wander through the AR. Good to see that despite the difficult twelve months the large shareholders on the whole stayed put- we did loose Aberforth and RWC(never heard of them) since July last year. Also I was pleased to see mugshots of more members of the SLT than last year.
Can well understand why there was no increase in the dividend and let's hope there will be an increase however small in a year' s time.
The have neither sold or bought since April last year and plan to remain with what I have. Those who bought at circa 180 p a couple of months ago will have done well

[a2584728] 07/8/2018 12:57

Maybe looking to break out of trading range

[rivaldo] 27/7/2018 10:34

Berenberg upgrade today to Buy, with a massive increase in the target price to 260p (from 195p):

Http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/

[cac86] 23/7/2018 07:09

MuddyW - I don't think the Fox final payment is anything to worry about, although it does look like some window dressing by the CFO to make net debt look better than forecast because he failed to make the inroads into working capital that he was so confident about last year. The payment was due last November but probably because of the loss making contract, NCC tried to claim against warranties agreed during the deal. There should no further ramifications if the payment has now been made. As for Escrow MD, I think it looks like a gentle way to exit him, as jajc1 said, the main business is in the UK. With the apparent resignation of Rawlinson the two divisional MDs are gone and it is only a matter of time before a new Group Escrow MD will be hired.

[jajc1] 21/7/2018 11:40

Escrow M.D. has American spouse and kids so I assume he’s using the “opportunity” for NCC to pay to relocate his family back to US. Strange move when 90% of his Escrow sales And operations Head count and revenue is in the UK though.

[muddyw] 21/7/2018 11:18

I'm a bit suspicious about the 'deferred payment' to Fox IT, that would have made these numbers a clean sweep of 'lower than expected'? What are the legal / financial implications of not honouring the payment? The lack of explanation about it, when it was such a pivotal element of the results numbers, is - to me - a bit worrying.

PS - Any 'insiders' have details on the rumours of Escrow management being fired over a couple of 'legal issue' cover-ups? Or the MD being moved into the departure lounge of the flagging US (Atlanta) office? Are they true / related? Or are the bigwigs just finally turning their attention to the dwindling performance of their 'cash cow' now that they've finished re-structuring the Assurance division?

[a2584728] 20/7/2018 09:07

The market seems to like the recent developments I am still looking to exit at 300p before Christmas 2018. May see a dip in August as usual

[rivaldo] 20/7/2018 07:55

New recent highs now - buying coming in at above 225p.

[cac86] 18/7/2018 13:31

Just watched the results presentation. Have to say that I thought Palser was fine but Tenner came across as arrogant and superior. Easy to identify issues but harder to fix them but of course he is walking away. Despite the positive share price move, EBIT margins are still significantly below 2016 (and prior), and it looks like they are only looking for small increases in margin over the next two years, but then spending them on "investments". Debtors and accrued income have not really moved materially and staff turnover is worse than last year, both Stone and Tenner ridiculed these in last years presentation. My view is 2017 was sandbagged by Tenner and that in light of that, this years results are poor and that little real progress has been made. I am looking to sell.

[jajc1] 18/7/2018 10:51

Happy with the result but nervous about the future performance.

[billywizz7] 18/7/2018 10:21

So glad that the announcement was positive and that share price has risen. There was a lot of scaremongering on this site about swathes of people leaving and the business imploding, but that does not seem to be the case. There is some staff turnover but this seems to be consistent with prior year. I liked Palser on the video.

[a2584728] 18/7/2018 10:07

I am adding from here great hopes of 330p

[walbrock82] 18/7/2018 07:06

Management in NCC Group wants you to know they are returning to their former glory. It could look interesting. Here’s more: http://bit.ly/2Luyasa

[rivaldo] 18/7/2018 05:45

Just back from hols, and on first read extremely pleased with the results. The improvement in cash flow in particular is most impressive, and the outlook seems pretty bullish.

Peel Hunt have this to say, with a 275p target:

Http://citywire.co.uk/money/the-expert-view-royal-mail-rio-tinto-and-galliford-try/a1139057?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list#i=8

"NCC just starting its growth story, says Peel Hunt

NCC (NCC) has delivered ‘solid’ full year results but it is only at the start of a ‘multi-year’ growth story.

Analyst Damindu Jayaweera retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 275p on the stock, which was trading up 6%, or 4.8p, at 84p.

It reported earnings 8% ahead of Jayaweera’s expectations and ‘strong double-digit organic growth across key assurance divisions’.

‘Free cashflow, coming in at £20 million, reflected significant operational improvements made by the current team…With financials now stabilised, NCC looks to build on these assets. For example, organic expansion via small offices is a viable strategy until such time when M&A will make sense.’

Jayaweera said the share valuation is supportive and a ‘solid track record in recent months and a chief executive with a vision’ means ‘NCC is still only at the beginning of a multi-year secular growth story’."

[boozey] 17/7/2018 19:38

Reference the point on staff attrition, the 23% staff turnover will be a reflection, as much as anything else, of a known tight labour market in cyber security which is only going to get tighter in coming times. Talent working in the industry from the best sales people through to the greatest technical architects can name their price.

Smart companies will work hard to keep the cream of their talent with retention bonuses and share options.

No customer wants to see a new account manager knock on their door every time they call NCC. I would describe the typical account manager from NCC - and I have met a lot - as at best mediocre. Quality talent, paid a premium, would yield better results and do a lot for the customer satisfaction index.

[boadicea] 17/7/2018 16:45

Jerseyman1 - A fair assessment I think - thank you.
The share price is only back to where it was about a month ago and I see today's rise as a relief rally on finding things more or less as hoped for then. Equally, I don't see a lot to go for in the near future (barring unpredictable corporate actions) given its already fairly generous p/e in a favoured sector.
It is supported by its growth rate which should continue, and a creditable margin improvement which may or may not continue given its dependence to some extent on external factors such as fx and competition. Cash generation is also rreassuring.
Steady progress leading, as you suggest, to eventual takeover is probably a reasonable expectation. However, any further setbacks on the road may incur harsh market judgement.

[jerseyman1] 17/7/2018 15:04

Just watched the results presentation. Firstly big improvement as no sign of Chris Stone speaking. Despite what has been said by several, including me, Palser was much better than last year, had some clarity and vision, but still delivers in a cross between scholarly and louche manner. Despite dislike for Tenner on here I like him, but can see why he is off.Results wise clearly an improvement virtually everywhere, especially cash generation. But the results are the most adjusted I can recall in any public company, it would be nice to have less ISI and adjustments, with a straight flow from EBITDA to PBT. Market reaction strikes me as a bit excitable, can't see why it justifies 10% share price rise, but I will take it. Going forward 10% seems a modest and achievable organic revenue growth target, which combined with continuing, albeit more modest margin growth should have a substantial effect on PBT or whatever adjusted profit measure is in vogue next year.Much comment on here re staff turnover, which seems high to me at 23%, but only up from 21% last year. But the more senior staff become the more you have to pay them so maybe not too bad a thing provided there is a recruitment engine, rather like the Big 4 accountants who churn staff more than this. Understandable angst from former and soon to be former staff, but in the big picture of the projects get done adequately at lower cost with less experienced staff so be it.So, I'll stay for a while, looks like a year or two more recovery and then takeover at £4 a share.....

[shine on1] 17/7/2018 10:38

As an ex employee and share holder I would have liked to have seen something more on how they will address what I always viewed as their major issue which was how to keep the sausage machine churning out high volume Assurance numbers whilst presenting a unified and strategic value proposition to their impressive client base. Many clients would have 4-6 "Account Managers" each selling a particular silo. They had attempted to address this several times but back pedalled when it impacted the Assurance volume, despite warning to RC that there was little head room left to fill the bucket with Pen Testing. I cannot see that cross selling into their base between Assurance and Escrew will work as its a totally different business with totally different decision makers within their customers. Whilst I always found Roger Rawlinson to be uninspiring, his resignation as one of the few on the inner circle of the previous management team, is likely to see others follow who have been a big part of the past success. In my opinion it appears that some decent & solid progress is being made by people who are not married to the old model that got them to where they were but had been exhausted and who were unable to take them to the next level.

[andrewbaker] 17/7/2018 09:20

Yep, impressive share price jump today, but not fully justified, IMHO. So they are back in profit after a loss last year, and have a new finance director; but so what? Work reviews on NCC are mixed, and not that good. Management don't seem to be as good as perhaps one would like. They are in a growing field of business but have plenty of competition.

I said last month, I sold a chunk at a profit, and kept some, as much for a takeover as anything else. On balance, I'm staying with that. If the price drops back below say, 200p, I may buy a few back: but I'm not going to rush in at this time.

Maybe other holders may want to take some profits on today's rise (or trim losses/exposure)?

[a2584728] 17/7/2018 08:52

What a great set of numbers and a fine appointment. Should get us back to the heady heights of 300p plus

[gsbmba99] 17/7/2018 08:29

N+1 Singer synopsis ( Https://www.n1singer.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/N1-Singer-Research-Highlights-9.pdf ) NCC Group has released its final results for the year to May’18. Revenue is slightly below our expectations however improved utilisation of professional consultancy staff has resulted in an improvement in gross margin, offsetting the revenue shortfall. Adj. EBITDA of £42.5m is slightly ahead of our forecast. Good working capital management resulted in strong cash generation, with net debt at May’18 of £27.8m. This will reverse slightly in the current year as the FOX - IT deferred consideration (c. £10.m) was paid post the year end

[cerrito] 17/7/2018 07:35

I saw that as well about the new recruit, ED and let's hope that he is a better CFO for the experience

[cac86] 17/7/2018 07:10

Really difficult to decipher the accounts. More exceptional items even though last year looks like it was kitchen sinked, changing allocation of costs to the divisions, I am struggling to work out whether these numbers are good or bad.

Tenner seems to have spent more time fiddling with technical accounting changes than focus on the commercial performance of the business. New guy has to be better than that.

[expletive deleted] 17/7/2018 06:34

New CFO doesn't seem much of a catch. Left Findel in April 2017 within a week of them announcing a £29m provision for "flawed financial service products", and doesn't seem to have had s proper job since.