Nautical Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[steve73] 19/6/2012 06:01

hi steelw, - thanks for comments.

I think the offer from us differs from the COV one, in that we're being sought via a Scheme of Arrangement (I'm pretty sure the COV is via a conventional t/o - but as I'm not a holder there I'm not completely sure).

I see this as much more likely to proceed along the lines of EO., although that did have an "upside" element by virtue of the paper alternative.

THe other ongoing t/o saga of DEO by PMG (also via SoA), I also have an interest in, but since that is paper only the bid is simply tracking the PMG price (itself totally overvalued IMO). This one certainly looks a done-deal as there appears to be a vast majority in favour (edit - meaning DEO/PMG for clarity).

Still holding around half and happy to continue unless another "must have" comes along.

[steelwatch] 18/6/2012 18:34

bwana - as ever, it takes two to tango, and then how determined each party might be to win. Happy to gamble on it as things stand and won't complain if it stays at £4.50.

[bwanabanana] 18/6/2012 18:18

Steely

If we were drilling, then I would have stayed 100% in. I expect a counter bid but would not expect anything much over £5 - the mariner capital requirement may limit other bidders.

Bwana

[steelwatch] 18/6/2012 17:59

Steve73 - it could be at least a month before a counter bid materialises, if any. No doubt Cairn and their advisers would have you believe it is a done deal, but it isn't until it becomes so. Worth checking the timelines for COV on that.

Meanwhile, there will be some volatility which indicates precisely nothing.

[bwanabanana] 18/6/2012 16:34

50/50

BWANA

[marauder7] 18/6/2012 16:30

Steve73 - fwiw, just completed piecemeal sales - all gone.

[fleetstreetmeet] 18/6/2012 15:55

very interesting situation currently.

[ed 123] 18/6/2012 12:16

I'm still holding. I don't see any premium withering today. Trades have been 458 to 462, currently 460.5 (down 0.5). Volume is lower today.

The recommended cash offer provides a 450p safety net. Stock sold is going into the hands of speculators. They may try to squeeze a bit more out of Cairn in return for their support at the vote. Or, they may put their holdings behind a counter bid. Or, they may have misjudged it and have to settle for a loss of 10p or so per share.

As ever, time will tell.

[steve73] 18/6/2012 11:35

The bid premium appears to be withering somewhat today - does this indicate a done deal, or is there still some possible upside?

Is anyone still hanging on here?

[marauder7] 17/6/2012 12:44

Steve73, why trollst thou here? fruitfly2 is a confirmed pest for rhubarb-lovers - but you are not. ;)



Drosophiliac tendencies aside, perhaps instead you should be re-checking the small print re the Global Resource deal with XEL (tranches 2 & 3). rather than playing follow-the-leader. IMO, 98% of the action's over on NPE. It's paperclip arranging time now here. Not much upside even if a bid-war starts. Or downside. DYOR, E&OE, TINFA, YMMV etc. ;D

Quid pro quo, ADVFN is currently squirting out hundreds of wrong closing SPs (and perhaps lots else - yuck!) via FilterX (which is my "feed"), which in turn is screwing up my semi-auto trading like nothing else. Examples provided by me in the help thread and motivating ADVFN to fix this pronto. TIA.

[steve73] 16/6/2012 09:48

Morgan found the Dross better than worthless though!

[fruitfly2] 15/6/2012 18:30

Those yellow sticky pads are quite good.

[marauder7] 15/6/2012 18:02

Evolution is imperfect and works statistically.

On occasion, it produces spinoffs which seem to be of use to neither their own species nor any other.

The fruit fly is a worthless pest which, once identified, requires ausrottung with prejudice.

[fruitfly2] 15/6/2012 15:23

marauder7 will grow on you,eventually.A bit like Japanese Knotweed.

[marauder7] 15/6/2012 14:58

Hello, Muppets and Non-Muppets! :)

Does this baby still have some bang under the bonnet?

I mean, share price > offer price, so could a better one be coming, even now the BoD has put its little rubber stamp of approval/recommendation on things?

Given the 450p floor, I'm inclined to hold.

Intelligent responses only, please. Rudeness will result in filtration and insolence in corporal remedies.

TIA.

[lucky_punter] 15/6/2012 11:14

The FTSE100 oil firm announced its 450p a share cash bid yesterday, though with Nautical shares now trading at 466p it appears investors are anticipating a possible counter-bid could spark a bidding war.

[haydock] 15/6/2012 08:46

I do not believe it, I leave you lot alone, stop pouring over the declining share price, bad news as ever:

Stuck in the South of France , missing all the fun/ bah 26°

Great news,my son sent me an e mail, looks like higher bid?
Cheers Hay:

[steelwatch] 14/6/2012 22:33

So it has, LOL

[rogsim] 14/6/2012 16:56

steelwatch

Isn't it marvellous that The Independent has Paul Jennings as CEO and Stephen Jenkins as CD - a well-researched piece....

[steelwatch] 14/6/2012 16:40

The 450p-a-share deal, Cairn Energy's second since announcing its change of focus in March, will hand just over £4m apiece to Nautical's founders, chief executive Paul Jennings and commercial director Stephen Jenkins. However, the pair may end up pocketing even more after the market indicated it believes Nautical will receive a higher bid from a rival.

[lanaken] 14/6/2012 15:17

They probably were having some real difficulties with funding and banks, and had what was a decent offer in today's market and took it. They almost certainly sensed that it is a bit too low, but realised that if that was indeed the case, a better offer would come.

The fat lady is clearing her throat. Will she get up on stage or go down the pub? That is the question and the share price/low level of acceptances is quite encouraging;-)

repo

[lucky_punter] 14/6/2012 15:09

The news spiked Nautical's share price over 50 per cent to swallow the large bid premium and the stock is now changing hands at 461p a share.

[gwr7] 14/6/2012 14:58

"Establishing commercial flow rates at Kraken was a major milestone for Nautical. We aim to seize and build on this success by sanctioning the project by the end of 2012, in parallel with the development of the discoveries in the Catcher block.

We will continue to crystallise value where appropriate and de-risk our high quality opportunities through diligent work programmes, mitigating risk through judicious farm-downs, thus adding value for our shareholders.

Your Board believes that our current portfolio can fuel the organic growth of the Company and we will continue to replenish our exploration and appraisal hopper to ensure our continued success."

Does make you wonder why the Board was so quick to agree Cairn's offer.

[glyn10] 14/6/2012 10:46

GWR7 - me too. The bid is an OK offer but nothing spectacular.