National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 19/12/2017 15:23

DaveofDevon,

Germany and German firms are not as intergrated into the US as some British Companies like NG

Sure they (Germans) like to sell their Mercs and BMWs etc to the US. But the US are about protecting US workers and rewarding shareholders of US companies.


NG US is a wholly intergrated Company essential to US fundamental needs. They have their own management team (reporting to JP direct) and it is run under different regulatory authorities.

The BBC will state anything as being bad if Trump is the initiator. The Broadcaster (BBC) is supposed to be political impartial but that is far from the truth. They are an Institutionally Left Wing, Trump hating institution.


NG is a U.K. owned Company but is only one step away from being a wholly US business if Gov, Regulators and Shadow Gov rhetoric in the U.K. continues to expect that NG is run as a Charity rather than a business.

[daveofdevon] 19/12/2017 10:37

UTYINV you say

" With Corporation tax in the US about to be slashed by the Republican tax reforms this can only help NG's future ambitions." but an article in BBC business news which is headed Trump and tax war suggests that the impact for NG might be bad.

It says "The new plan also increases the tax liability of US subsidiaries that make payments to foreign firms. That measure has companies in places such as Germany worried."

[srpactive] 19/12/2017 08:06

C

Good update thank you.

[coxsmn] 18/12/2017 22:43

Uty,I agree with your points.The business is solid and there's nothing i like more than picking up quality shares on the cheap beaten down by sentiment.

[utyinv] 18/12/2017 20:30

Coxsmn,

Correction, I think it is now more than 50% since the sale of 61% of the G Distn business. In 2019 I believe NG will sell the remaining 39% (they have an agreement of sale in place), which would weight the business more over towards the USA.

Also, with Corporation tax in the US about to be slashed by the Republican tax reforms this can only help NG's future ambitions.

Also, the Interconnector business is partly owned by National Grid and other Foreign Companies. Difficult to see how this and other parts of NG on our shores can easily be Nationalised. My Guess (IMO) is that, like the rest of Joe Public, the Marx Bros cannot differentiate between the numerous elements of the National Grid business and the complexities that they will incur if they did come after NG.

I would hazard a guess if the Marx Bros did get into power and either in the first term or second term (God forbid they will get a second term), they went after National Grid the easy target would be the SO element which by then, on the electricity business, will be separated from the rest of NGET (project due to be complete by 2019) and based on the recommendations made by OFGEM last year.

By taking control of the SO business they can say that they have taken over National Grid because to 'many', National Grid is seen as the Control Rooms, Electricity and Gas, which buy the Energy to balance against demand, maintaining Freq and Volt Control based on real time system constraints (for electricity) and buying Gas and use of Liquid Storage gas, maintaining the quality of gas supply, matching energy available against demand. There are far more complexities to name in order to effectively separate the other different elements of the business.

It is negative sentiment based on fear and ignorance that IMO is keeping this stock low. Let's hope when what is published in the final Results next May, pleasantly surprises the 'City'. AIMOO

[coxsmn] 18/12/2017 19:14

Srp,
NG is a quality company underpinned by strong profits and dividend growth. 50% of business is now in US where they are increasing investment. Share weakness here equals buying opportunity. Current yield is 5.2%, i put the downside risk here at ~£7.50 putting the share on a yield of ~6%. I've bought recently and looking to add soon. All imho.
Regards.

[utyinv] 16/12/2017 20:14

Just a point of Interest:

As reported on 30th Nov 2017: NG is being shorted in the US to the tune of 0.2% of ADR's in Circ.
A fortnight earlier on 15th Nov 2017: NG was being shorted in the US to the tune of 0.27%

Over 20% of shorts closed ie, signs that US Hedge Funds are starting to concentrate elsewhere

Unfortunately the free NYSE website will not publish the Shorts for 15th Dec 2017 for another couple of weeks.

[warranty] 15/12/2017 15:31

Interesting posts guys from which I think we can all conclude that what's really affecting the share price of NG, CNA, SSE and other Utilities is the concern that Corbyn and McDonnel may at some time form a government. I hear all of the points about the young being influenced by Momentum and the like and indeed we are right to be concerned about it. I see the situation much the same as the 70's where Unions were allowed to be taken over by the left due to apathy by the majority of workers and union members.

I can absolutely tell you that living in South Yorkshire during the miners strike, the majority of miners wanted to return to work long before they did but were physically threatened of the consequences if they did. A Corbyn government would be much worse I'm sure. Thankfully we live in a different and much better informed world with no unionised Coal, Steel, Power or Transport industry to hold the country to ransom. Despite the youth vote I just really don't see the UK electorate being foolish enough to elect a Marxist government and that includes young voters.

There was a lot wrong with the last election but most of it was self inflicted by the Tories abysmal manifesto as well as the various outside factors. TM herself was largely responsible with her refusal to appear in TV debates and unmanufactured people visits. In fact if you wanted an example of how not to do it you'd find that hard to beat.

I may be completely wrong but I just think that by the time of the next election the Tories will be under a new leader and with a much stronger manifesto whilst the left will have self destructed. NG at this level is therefore a bargain for me and too good to miss. I am a pretty positive looking character generally and believe nine times out of ten people's worries never get realised and I believe NG just now is one of them.

[srpactive] 15/12/2017 13:39

U

Thank you.

[utyinv] 15/12/2017 13:03

Srpactive,

Oh Ok I understand now and no I do not want you to leave, I was only being curious :)

Pogue,
Regarding the first point, yes I understand the reason why Corbyn would want to take over NG it’s just the correlation between Railtrack that’s questionable. Railtrack had a serious issue with safety and reliability and despite being a Utility they had cash flow problems to finance investment. No one would lend to a Company who faced claims for damages etc.


NG is a different scenario regarding credibility and funding etc.

BTW, I am also interested in seeing how the overall business is performing following the sale of 61% of a very costly part of the business (man power and infrastructure maintenance).
We also live in a Claims climate and every time there is an issue of a Gas explosion etc one of the first thoughts that goes through my head, after the horror felt of seeing people hurt, which pains anyone to the core, is what is NG’s liability are they in the firing line? In 2019 I believe NG will take up the option to sell the remaining 39%. Making the US business more 65% vs 35% of U.K. business. Whether I will be holding by then is up in the air as I explore my options.

[srpactive] 15/12/2017 10:41

P

That is why B & co let so many onto our shores.

[srpactive] 15/12/2017 10:11

Uty

No problem, and I accept your points, a friend of mine
has them and asked me to have a look and comment, by
saying no position I am being as impartial as possible.
If you would like me to leave I will.

[willoicc] 15/12/2017 09:51

Yes and you also have the ones who lose a fortune but still get bailed out by the rest of us paying their huge undeserved bonuses.

[utyinv] 15/12/2017 08:17

Srpactive,

I am a little confused. If you don’t have any position here, does that mean you do not hold?

If so why spend time posting on something you have no interest in? No disrespect and not a dig, honestly. If you were a holder of stock (any stock), or looking to get a feel for a stock ( evaluating whether to buy / take a position ) I can understand you spending time posting.
So you must be contemplating a position otherwise you wouldn’t bother being on here.

Just a curious observation. Also if you have no interest in this stock or any stock do you visit all the other 100 ftse bb’s and post just for the sake of it? Must take up a lot of spare time? Again not a derogatory comment just trying to understand the statement people make when posting “no position here”. :)

[srpactive] 15/12/2017 07:37

Unfortunately new lows just go lower, no position here.

[pogue] 14/12/2017 19:26

Warrenty
this time the purges will be more successful with the Momentum ideologists driving it they seem to have a mindless and aggressive drive about them I have not seen even in the glory days of the Socialist Worker sellers they know what they are doing and are going about it in a very workman like way. They remind me of the Red Army book wavers to be honest.
I believe all youth are gullible, I was gullible in my early years and was very left wing, experience of life changed me to a realist I don’t see this crop of young people being any different.
I totally agree social media has changed the landscape and the Tories are way behind however expecting the Tory party to match even where Labour are now in the next election is optimistic.
Regards not losing money until you sell this is where I am worried in this scenario. I do a lot of LTBH, NG and SSE being 2 cases, but here the loses will be incurred when companies Corbyn dislikes are nationalised you do not choose the exit point. Why take the chance is my point when there are other places to put money that will not be nationalised? Are the returns from utilities that good, are they are worth the risk of a large capital haircut? I can’t square that one right now as I see that risk as very high, obviously you see it as low hence you are bullish.
Good to hear opposite opinions.

[warranty] 14/12/2017 18:21

Pogue, I think the purging that is going on within the Labour Party is exactly the thing that will destroy them long before theext election. I do take your point about the youth vote increasing and of course almost anyone under 30 has never seen the pain and destruction a left wing government can inflict but I just don't see our youth being stupid or gullible enough not to see through the empty promises. I might be being gullible myself of course. Social Media has certainly changed the landscape but I don't see the Tories not attempting to also use that medium. I think all these perceived problems are what's unnerving investors around shares like NG and whilst I also agree with your and Warren B's rule I also follow his belief about buying shares when they are on offer below their value which I believe NG, SSE and CNAcertainly are. Remember, you only lose money if you sell and I don't intend doing that for a very long time.

[srpactive] 14/12/2017 16:28

Going a lot lower.

[pascocl] 14/12/2017 16:22

Royal Mail dropped to £3.67 a short while ago (due to negative sentiment) and is now back at £4.45 - NG can change just as fast. £8.60 (ex div) seems a very good entry point. The company is even buying back its own shares on a regular basis. 5.2% yield seems fine to me, and cannot see why not safe (dividend cover is high). Questor's income column selected this stock at around 10.50 (albeit over a year ago). The only real negative is the threat of nationalisation, but then all stocks should be collapsing from a general (perceived) threat to capitalism from Jeremy Corbyn's brand of socialism.

[pogue] 14/12/2017 09:35

Oh regards the Tory party attacking the rebels its somewhat different and a normal part of Tory politics and has been for years they have 2 opposing wings in their party
and have never deselected anyone for thinking the opposite. There is a huge difference from suggesting deselection and actually doing it as the Labour party is.
I hate all politicians so please don't assume I am Tory I can see you beginning to think that. I see Corbyn's methods and ideology the biggest threat to the UK stockmarket at the moment even more so than Brexit. I am an investor and assess risks as objectively as I can so am positioning myself to prevent large losses if he gets elected. I am starting early as I worry the opinion polls will inflect and Labour will start gaining a lead as the Labour machine gets into top gear and the Tories fall further back as the negativity of the Brexit negotiations bite and the initial gapping down in economy while the government negotiates new trade deals world wide to compensate for the loss of trade with Eurozone. If I am wrong that's fine but as I will be putting the cash in other what I consider safer investments, all I will lose is the investment gains that can be made in one industry over another.
First rule of investing don't lose money. Second rule of investing see rule one.