Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[hamsterape] 20/11/2009 12:48

From Alphaville:-

NH a wee bit of breaking news
NH concerning National Express
NH now
NH where does this leave the cash call
NH LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Cosman family, National Express Group PLC's (NEX.LN) largest shareholder, bought a further 500,000 shares in the U.K. transport company Thursday, raising its stake to around 19% from 18.6%, a spokesman said Friday.
He added the share buy indicated the family is committed to the company and to being a long-term shareholder in the business.
It's not clear yet whether the Cosmen family will participate in an upcoming GBP360 million rights issue the company has planned.
Last week a spokesman for the family said Jorge Cosmen, who represents the family on the board of National Express, "voted against the rights issue as a member of the board of directors, but the Cosmen family is evaluating whether it will support the rights issue."
A full vote on the rights issue by shareholders is scheduled for Nov. 27.
National Express blamed the "marked underperformance" of its East Coast rail franchise as well as high debt following an acquisition spree for its financial position, and said the rights issue was the best way to proceed.
The group had net debt as of Sept. 30 of about GBP1.1 billion, with significant refinancing necessary in September 2010, and again by June 2011.
National Express last month abandoned merger talks with rival bus-and-rail operator Stagecoach Group PLC (SGC.LN) to focus on reducing its debt with an equity fund raising.

National Express (NEX:LSE): Last: 349.30, up 8.3 (+2.43%), High: 349.60, Low: 339.20, Volume: 732.53k
NH I guess they wouldn't be buying
NH if they could not take up their rights
NH 500,000 shares
NH at 350p is a bit of a go
BE Right.

NH just back to National Express and the Cosmen's. It seems they gave that interview to Dow Jones, two minutes before the RNS announcing their share purchase came out.
11:58AM
NH quick update on NEX
NH share price motoring now
NH up 20p to 361p
NH why?
NH do people think the Cosmen's are going to put the company back into play
BE I guess that must be the theory
NH I suppose
NH if they take up their rights in full
NH and aren't diluted
NH they could push for a Stagecoach merger again
NH post cash call



Bit of a short squeeze too there, methinks. Stock is unborrowable now
so short-sellers couldn't cap the spike.

Wonder if it will come crashing back down when/if the Cosmen's are done with
their buying? Must be the only thing propping it up in a falling market?

[stdyeddy] 20/11/2009 12:40

anyone got an informed opinion?

[stdyeddy] 20/11/2009 12:40

blocking of the rights issue?

[stdyeddy] 20/11/2009 12:39

jorge cosmen increasing his stake by 1/2 million shares. what does that suggest?

[skippy13] 19/11/2009 15:22

when do they go ex rights?

[hamsterape] 18/11/2009 09:26

Interesting that the stock has become "unborrowable"
at IG even before the rights issue - on other
recent issues this has only happened shortly after
they turned ex-rights, usually late morning of that day.

[waldiman] 17/11/2009 23:00

Needs 50% of the votes I believe.

As Cosmen has circa 18%, a further 32% need to reject the RI for it not to happen.

[skippy13] 17/11/2009 09:07

Rights issue:

Is this definitely going ahead? Could it get thrown out at the AGM?

[stdyeddy] 16/11/2009 13:48

market manipulation i reckon

[hamsterape] 13/11/2009 12:55

Tipped as a buy, huh? I did wonder what was keeping it up today.

[pargor2] 13/11/2009 11:22

Hi guys this article I found on UK-Analyst might be helpful to you

[jtcod] 13/11/2009 09:40

I have no holding in NEX and would never back this management but I have a major holding in SGC. I think Souter is the best in the industry.

[stdyeddy] 13/11/2009 09:29

thanks v much for that JT. makes sense. are you willing to put more cash into nex? (will you take up the rights in other words?)

[stdyeddy] 13/11/2009 08:32

this stock seems to be immune to bad news for the moment - i'm looking at broker downgrades to £2, a potential £32m bill for eurostar liabilities, near certain loss of another rail franchise, lack of support from a major shareholder for the rights issue, and yet still it goes up. a £1/3m buy this morning. is this market manipulation or is something genuinely positive happening to move the sp??

[winston270] 12/11/2009 15:47

encarter,

How will that work then, correct me if I am wrong, but you will buy at the pre rights issue price or circa £3, you will have missed the opportunity to take part in the rights issue at £1.05 and the price will drop to post rights issue levels the follwoing day?

[milacs] 12/11/2009 08:57

steve517499

Thanks for your opinions on companies in this sector.

M

[encarter] 12/11/2009 08:06

winston270 the day before new dealing in the fully paid commences is usually the best time to buy, usually.

[hamsterape] 11/11/2009 16:23

Shares often seem to drift down towards the issue
price of the rights shortly after they go ex-rights,
possibly partly because holders' brokers allocate
rights to their accounts over the next few days
and more and more holders become confident about
selling their original holding, knowing that they
now have their rights booked to their accounts.
It's a natural trade in a sideways or weak market
and shorters will often take advantage of the
tendency to fall and augment the move to the downside.

[winston270] 11/11/2009 16:01

Hi all,

I'm currently considering investing in NEX as a long term recovery play, has anyone got any thoughts on whether its best to buy now & participate in the forthcoming rights issue or buy on the day they go ex rights?

Obviously NEX will be in a stronger position once nett debt is reduced by £360million following the rights, the East Coast will be out of the equation come the end of this week & if there are any takeover offers in the future NEX will command a higher takeout price with reduced debt levels.....

[stdyeddy] 11/11/2009 13:36

ty hamster

[hamsterape] 11/11/2009 13:13

Re. the Aegon sale - they seem to have sold their stakes in
quite a few companies recently, most noticeably Yell just
before their RI.