Nanoco Share Discussion Threads

[jfacwc] 19/12/2016 10:10

whumSurely Trump (or whoever) is merely just yet another distraction in the ever unfolding mystery of the nano share price Just do like Keni.

[whum] 19/12/2016 07:57

politics has been raised several times in this discussion.
my overriding fear given the recent election in America
is that trump instigates a trade war throwing
everything into confusion, or even worse provoke
the Chinese over Taiwan which is the base of
most tech firms. worrying times to say the least

[syd777] 19/12/2016 00:20

The Korean firms last year have lost out on market share to China with the TV sales and progress will only get better.LG would be the loser by going OLED only if that's the case,TCL,HiSense..will bring CFQDs out in Europe,USA..The TVs will be cheaper and the picture quality will be in line with OLED and Samsungs SUHD.LG will take up CFQDs after all DOW is selling samples not just to one customer as new business has been stated 3 times over 2016 and Nanoco is still getting royalties.DOW will be supplying Samsung,TCL and LG.

[enteleon] 18/12/2016 23:43

Kuss- excellent post, thank you.

The CFQD locomotive is gathering steam, you've said that consistently. As you know, Kisco of Japan have been commissioning Cad-Free samples from Quantum Materials Corp. The Johnny-come-Latelys are waking up.

I'd put my bet on the Chinese and Merck any time. Like you, I weighed in with some buying during the recent dip, which I regarded as a very strange anomaly. I am not going to be beaten down by shorters even those with a track record like J.P. Morgan.

I'm counting LG as out for the time being. Samsung would be a fantastic bonus and an announcement there would double the share price

[kuss1] 18/12/2016 23:15

enteleon,

The article for me is interesting as it shows Dow entered into an exclusive contract with LG for supply. We don't know the terms of that agreement. Maybe LG have contributed to the cost of setting up the plant. Maybe there were strict quality terms. Perhaps Dow is excluded from selling to the Chinese for a period. We just don't know.

But Dow have been slow, very slow to market a product they are apparently keen to sell.

It all stinks of politics to me. I honestly think Nano don't have a clue what Dow are up to. There's been a news blackout for almost a year with them. Though they were keen to buy Nano's latest tech. Which shows they are still interested in keeping up with the science.

So for these reasons Dow had to go. Perhaps touch and go for Nano's survival this last year. But the contract was ended, Merck is on board, the Chinese are very interested. Samsung needs more supply. LG can't hold up the train for much longer...

The big Chinese OEM's will drive this forward from here. It's why Wah Hong came on board and why Merck is now set on expanding production. Merck are also interested in Korea. ME has said that. I also think the Chinese will use Qdots down in their value chain more quickly.

I think we will be seeing the demise of the big Korean supremacy in the display industry. Just as the american's lost it, then the japanese. Next kings will be the Chinese.

Nano's tech will dominate the industry. It's a simple fact for me. It's why Dow and Merck were attracted. Why Wah Hong was. LG, too. I've said for a long time that Nanosys are dead meat. The industry will be dominated by Nano. Just a question of time.

I also believe there were some issues with quality some two years ago. Nano's new tech has taken them to the same standard as cadmium dots. Yields have improved many times.

The mistake in investing is to assume everything stays the same. That's true for longs and shorts.

I look forward to CES.

With Merck's factory due in 9 months, a great time to invest here in my view...

[kenirogas] 18/12/2016 22:43

Would be nice to see everything start to come to fruition next qtr, but in the
Longer term, as someone recently posted, I see nano's share price as a minimum 150p for a buy out. Still in and happy trading my top quarter.

[enteleon] 18/12/2016 21:55

Kuss- that's a very revealing article, but remember that it's from two years ago, ie early 2015. This was at a very delicate stage in the performance of Dow's QD product.

16/12/14- Nano announces that LG will use Dow's QDs in its 4K Ultra HD TV line-up to be unveiled at CES, Las Vegas, 6-9th Jan, 2015.

30/12/14- Nano signs manufacturing contract with Dow which sets out how Runcorn QDs will be supplied to Dow.

Samsung's prediction that LG would fail to develop TVs through 2015 with Nano/Dow QDs proved correct. Maybe Dow still ensnared in an exclusive, but failed, contract with LG?

But,even more strange are M.E.'s comments. In his podcast in October, he did not mention LG once. At the recent AGM, he evaded knowledge of where Dow was at ref. LG. Yet, back in October, he intimated that "Samsung would be very significant for our partners, Dow".

Totally agree that the Chinese and Merck are now upsetting the apple-cart big-time.
Also agree that cadmium-free will become the choice.

PC puts it beautifully when it comes to assessing Dow: "What The Fux Do I Know" !

[perfect choice] 18/12/2016 21:52

Dow have just paid for the latest production technology from Nano for their own line, they are not spending money for the sake of it, they must have a target. My guess right now is they are getting ready for the Samsung expansion of QD technology into the rest of their TV range, which may be announced at CES2017 and even if it was, would be a summer 2017 supply requirement, maybe April or May for advanced CFQD supply into Samsung. Just don't think LG are "secretly" doing anything right now despite that statement last September, happy to be proven wrong of course for the sake of Nano and Dow.

[kenirogas] 18/12/2016 21:47

Thanks Kuss, I missed that article completely at the time. Not keen on the following paras either, indicating Dow/nano's dots WERE rejected by Samsung on technical deficiency, not just pricing....lets hope the industry award took care of that element. I also read that exclusivity Dow/LG as a very limiting contract if what Kwon stated is fact.

[kuss1] 18/12/2016 21:04

Kenirogas,

Go back a year and read this...



"No competitor has the exclusive supply line with Dow Chemicals that we have and we aren't worried about shortness in supply."

The problem with Dow I think is that perhaps they signed up with LG for exclusive supply. It's not a case of colluding. They may be limited contractually. We just don't know the terms. Dow I think haven't tested the market outside of Korea because either they can't or they don't want to upset LG and perhaps Samsung who buy billions from them.

But of course they still plan to sell if they can. As you've said they've spent a lot and are businessmen. They still want Qdot tech as they know it's the future. So they will buy it from Nano.

Remember LG didn't want production from Nano. They insisted it had to be from Dow. That's just a delaying tactic to me.

I don't think Dow wanted to see a collapse in Nano's share price for takeover reasons. They could have made a move if they had wanted.

But Nano now are free. Merck is on board. The Chinese have upset the apple cart. The industry is moving and gathering pace.

You can't hold back the tide, though I think to some extent that's what LG and Samsung have done for a while...

In addition, you had the cadmium alternative. But that is becoming less of an attraction for all the OEMs.

[kenirogas] 18/12/2016 20:46

Also very dubious, as is PC about LG announcing anything at CES...on the contrary, I feel their recent release re: monitors using IPS tech is an indicator that they think they can achieve sufficiently good picture quality to rival Samsung in that market without QDs. Monitors are generally considered higher spec than TVs are they not, and if LG can achieve HDR in monitors by the IPS route, then???
Still think they will go QD at some point in 2017 just for th name, but anticipate Dow revenue Q2 earliest unless my CES guess is wrong.

[kenirogas] 18/12/2016 20:39

Kuss, I totally agree re LG not wanting to promote QD, but I can't see Dow colluding with that after spending 100m on a factory, and then recently purchasing Nano's latest improvements to boot while refusing to (unless behind closed doors) push their product unless : 1) they are about to purchase the incredible flow process from QMC , thereby making their Nano connection redundant, or 2) as Enetleon intimates, using their position to depress ano value to facilitate a buy out for themselves or another party ( though I find that a bit of a stretch)...
Enteleon: didn't realise PA were so closely tied into Dow, so thanks for that, but I believe that short has been under .5% for some time now?

[enteleon] 18/12/2016 20:23

Kuss- very good posts. Are you thinking that Dow has deliberately not pushed their QDs either with LG/Samsung or marketed their QDs further afield as a device to crush the Nano's share price ? Is the big-picture-plan for Dow to take out Nano ?

I, too, have been suspicious of Dow's motives since PanAgora Asset Management took out a short position on Nano, yet increased their very considerable long position on Dow. PanAgora would have done deep due diligence on Dow and there would have been intimate meetings between PanAgora and Dow top management.

For Nano's share price to have dived recently to near all-time lows in the face of known accelerating interest from Merck and Wah Hong appears very contrived. At the very least, the Market has discounted any immediate performance from Dow.

The Dow story has been a bit of a sad tale, hasn't it ? My view is that Dow might come in as a bonus, but is their extreme secrecy a cover-story for marketing failure or ulterior motive ? As you have emphasized many times, IP is now being chased, Samsung paying £56M for QD Vision's IP alone. Without Nano's now very valuable IP, Dow has absolutely nowhere to go. Strange business !

[kuss1] 18/12/2016 19:47

kenirogas,

LG don't want Qdots because if you put them next to their Oled displays there's no difference. So why should they risk the billions they've spent shooting themselves in the foot. Samsung so far haven't needed Dow.

But why aren't Dow promoting their Qdots outside of Korea? Surely they are interested in selling outside of Korea? That decision is partly political in my opinion. Dow have been dragging their feet for ages, that's as clear as day to me.

I think that's why Nano had to go non-exclusive at the first opportunity.

But now it's very different situation. Nano have got productive capacity with Wah Hong. And Dow won't want to face the might of Merck. Pressure's building for them to act.

If the Chinese do make a move to cad free Qdots, the fight begins. Again, for me that's the main reason Merck as so eager to ramp up production.

[andycapped] 18/12/2016 18:56

I think with Dow, it ties in with what I said in earlier post about the 4k HDR market needing the content to create the demand. Probably most manufacturers felt the market was content with normal LCD, and sales were adequate with existing tech. With 4K HDR now gaining traction, and more providers distributing content, gaming etc. The demand is likely to increase for the improved colour and brightness offered by QD, and in order to compete companies will require quantum dot film for their screens.

lets not also forget the market for tablets, laptop screens etc. These are mainly LCD based, and i think will continue to be so, and although QD film has been used in the past (e.g. Fire HDX) it never seemed to spread out to other makes. Perhaps that will change.

[kenirogas] 18/12/2016 18:46

Kuss, not sure I understand you ... "Dow have been caught up in this logjam for years given Samsung and LG are their two biggest customers."..
Unless I missed something, Dow don't yet have significant commercial orders from either...I know they have always concentrated on the Korean OEMs, but there's no real proof that either is a volume customer to date. Why would they get involved in any politics which reduced the likelihood of their use of the Cheonan plant? Thy want to sell dots, period..

[whum] 18/12/2016 18:43

roadster, only guessing but the staff reductions
are connected to the termination of the Osram
relationship and less emphasis on solar development,
the latter whilst not being abandoned is probably viewed
as a future avenue for revenue growth.
All the resource is being put into display, and given
that staff are employed for specific projects, the solar and osram
employees skills do not fit with the current
demand. All imho

[roadster750] 18/12/2016 17:09

personally I would be unhappy to hear of redundancies, profitability is just around the corner and to shed skilled and loyal team members at this point does not make sense imo

[mr.oz] 18/12/2016 16:38

Kuss, yes my suspicious mind also doubts DOWs motivations at times. It'll potentially all pan out in due course but only when LG and DOW are ready

[kuss1] 18/12/2016 15:56

Yes, whum, LCD is far from dead. Quite the opposite. In fact for large display I think it's more than likely LCD will crush Oled. After all, it's only LG that's making them and selling each one at a loss. Sony are coming onboard with Oled's made by LG next year, but it's a futile attempt in my view.

Basically, Qdot LCD's are better at colour, efficiency and brightness. And the viewing angle issue will be sorted very soon. So why buy and Oled at more than twice the price?

So the battle is with LCD and Samsung have set the standard.

I think the Chinese are now breaking ranks and going for Qdots. They will ditch cadmium. You can already see the signs with Hisense dropping Qd vision. TCL and Hisense will migrate across to cad free. That's why they don't mind being associated with Nano at CES in Jan. It's pretty clear that's also why Merck are moving at breakneck speed to dedicate their new manufacturing facility.

I'm becoming quite suspicious of Dow and the politics of the industry. LG clearly don't want Qdots to succeed and Samsung don't want Qdots to expand beyond their own offering. Dow have been caught up in this logjam for years given Samsung and LG are their two biggest customers.

But now Merck is on the scene and the Chinese market is starting to move Dow will be forced to do so to.

Any sniff of the Chinese launching cad free Qdot TV's next year will speak volumes..

Also, I'm pleased to hear of Nano making redundancies on solar if it's true. They should cull most of their non-display and non-life science workforce. This will significantly reduce costs and make a move to profitability that much easier...

[whum] 18/12/2016 11:59

from the link above lcd production appears to be expanding
exponentially, assuming most if not all will incorporate cfqd
the demand for cfqd will also follow in its wake.
hence the urgency of wah hong and merck to complete
manufacturing facilities to supply the demand.

[shroder] 17/12/2016 11:51

Thanks for the feedback Slippery and Andy.

Nananco technology is difficult to assess from the outside making investment decisions equally difficult. One to keep a mince pie on.

[whum] 17/12/2016 09:41

extract from link above

Separately, we have reported in our newsletters that Sharp/Foxconn has failed to agree a supply deal for Samsung TV panels in 2017 and, as a result, Samsung is having to look around for new suppliers.

I wonder who they will approach for supply?

[fil340] 17/12/2016 08:06

Seems like the LCD price-war will be getting even worse, further increasing the value of new tech like CFQD:

[hippo] 17/12/2016 07:21

Wrong board....