Brown (n) Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 02/6/2016 08:44

Just taken a minuscule punt here, simply on the hope that the doom and gloom has been overdone and that, eventually, they will find their way again. Hope springs eternal and all that....

[gucci] 02/6/2016 08:39

why is this tanking!!

[arc en ciel] 28/5/2016 00:02

Zca: Can't really see the point of that. The primary business is in the UK, so largely unaffected by the referendum decision. Ditto for the fast-growing US business.

Assuming the UK public is conned by the short-term lies put about by Cameron/ Osborne and Uncle Barack and all, then a non-Brexit outcome will almost certainly lead to a general uplift in UK domestic stocks so you'll probably pay more for your N Brown shares when you get around to buying.

You could buy half of what you want now and await the decision before buying the other half to mitigate this.

[zcaprd7] 27/5/2016 12:58

I'm waiting for the brexit situation the get resolved before I get back in ...

[arc en ciel] 25/5/2016 11:49

I have been watching from the sidelines as the promise of the web-based online catalogue transformation at this trad clothing company gathers pace.

However the chart has been extremely depressing this year especially, so I would not catch a steadily falling knife.

The combination of a good SCSW May report and a notable share double bottom at around 235p has jogged me into action and I've taken a stake for the first time.

With the hope that the view through the windscreen proves considerably better than the one in the rear-view mirror, I hope we now witness a steady climb back to the 300p mark as a first target. In the meantime if the dividend is maintained it won't be an expensive wait.

[nw99] 24/5/2016 15:29

Topped up again as well

[gucci] 24/5/2016 13:39

topped up too today

[aishah] 24/5/2016 13:27

Interesting update in TMI latest issue. I've overcome my fears of the IT roll-out and bought in recently.

[aishah] 17/5/2016 21:54

Peel Hunt - 13/04 Hold tp=340p. 20/04 - DOWNGRADES to Reduce, tp=275p
Numis - 25/01 Add tp=360p. 20/05 DOWNGRADES to Hold, tp=280p

[nw99] 17/5/2016 19:58

Time to double up

[onjohn] 13/5/2016 11:02

Watching this closely now to buy. N Brown is gearing up for an assault on the $34bn US ‘outsize clothing’ market by distributing more than 1 million catalogues for its Simply Be range to potential customers. US websites about to be rolled out


The final proposed dividend of 8.56 pence per share will also be paid on 29 July 2016 to shareholders on
the register at the close of business on 1 July 2016.

Shindler has also bought £50,000 shares at 30p higher last month

[ed 123] 12/5/2016 09:33

Ta, jbarcroftr. :-)

[jbarcroftr] 12/5/2016 08:56

205 p BN Paribas new price target

[modform] 11/5/2016 17:00

I am with aishah on this one, the chart tells you everything you need to know.Trade with strategy or you lose most of your capital in the hope of 5% yield

[ed 123] 11/5/2016 11:23

Aishah.

Yes, despondency rules.

I've seen 10 analyst price targets. They range from 260p to 415p. Current share price? ..... 243p ............ below the lowest target.

Will it need fresh bad news to fall further or will it just continue its momentum without further news? Who knows?

When the share price was this low before, mid-2012, it went on to double over the following 12 months. Could that be repeated?

[aishah] 11/5/2016 10:58

I can't see what will drive the price up before the Q1 statement. Peel Hunt downgraded recently to reduce and Numis downgraded to Hold. Chart looks awful with share price now at multi-year lows.

[jbarcroftr] 11/5/2016 10:32

Looking forward to June 16
No rush in my opinion
The upside if they get it right might well double the share price

[ed 123] 11/5/2016 10:11

Good points, and we'll only know with hindsight.

They do, though, seem to be minimising risk. The new systems are being rolled out in a staggered process. If a problem is found with the smaller brands (which go live first), they can switch back to the old system and give themselves time to sort out the issue.

This process is transformational for N Brown. IF it goes well, they will have the IT and physical systems, not only to run the UK business more effectively but also to roll out internationally.

Then, there are the sectoral issues affecting N Brown too. All seem to be experiencing difficult trading conditions atm. Warm early winter season, Sterling strength and the immediate effect of the rise in the minimum wage have all taken their toll. Interestingly, I've overlaid Next, Debenhams and N Brown over the past 12 months. The share prices of each have dropped by roughly equal amounts (approx. one third). There will better times for UK clothes retailers, imo.

(Q1 statement due on 16 June 2016.)

[jbarcroftr] 11/5/2016 10:08

Is there an update at the end of June?
Think I will wait

[aishah] 11/5/2016 09:37

Totally agree. Pity SCSW ignored this issue in their latest update. I think M&S suffered last year on their online offering post an IT update.

[my retirement fund] 11/5/2016 09:25

IT systems have traditionally been used to cover up more serious managerial failings within organisations so you are right imo to be so worried.I picked up on that too. The way it was crafted was very much to my mind paving the way for the next profit warnings with boardroom fireproofing built in.Until either there is significant director purchases or the shareprice falls far more then its the bargepole for me.

[aishah] 11/5/2016 09:19

I am concerned about this:
"This year will be a very important one for the Group. Our new IT platform will be implemented, bringing necessary and significant improvements to all areas of our business. However experience suggests that a programme of this scale will bring some unexpected bumps in the road. A huge amount of effort has gone into planning and preparing to mitigate these risks."

An IT failure could mean a lot of trouble imo.

[lomax99] 11/5/2016 09:08

Added, again - getting fed up of buying the dip!


The last IC comment was accompanied by the table below:

Year to 28 Feb

Turnover (£m)

Pre-tax profit (£m)

Earnings per share (p)

Dividend per share (p)

T/O PR EPS DPS
2012 753 96.9 29.3 13.00
2013 785 96.4 28.5 13.70
2014 819 96.8 27.1 14.23
2015 837 78.3 21.8 14.23
2016 866 72.2 19.5 14.23

T/O is up £113M since 2012, profits are down £24.7M - the fruits of Management's labour in reshaping the business should be eventually translate into higher margins/profits/EPS/DPS and a re-rating.....

[ed 123] 10/5/2016 16:36

At the current price of 246p, the historic yield is 5.7%, p/e is ....... think of a number (exceptionals etc.).

The new warehouse is coming into service, presumably one-off costs have ended. Fit 4 the future costs seem to have peaked. Benefits, we are told, will not begin till the year ending 2018. Broker consensus (from FT) is 24.8p earnings in the current year. Therefore, forward p/e is 9.9. As you say, under 10.

I guess sellers are concerned there may be some bad news ahead?

IF Fit 4 the Future systems come online without major problems, I can see a bounce here.

Closing auction was firm. Possibly seeing the bottom?

(No advice intended.)

[jbarcroftr] 10/5/2016 16:14

Any estimates of the bottom
P/e under 10 and 5% yield