Ms Share Discussion Threads

[norbert colon] 02/12/2021 17:53

YouTube clip of RIB with MWS in action:https://youtu.be/K91BlJXHeos

[norbert colon] 02/12/2021 15:25

https://www.navylookout.com/seaboats-without-sailors-royal-navy-autonomous-rib-development/Includes MSI's MWS A1

[norbert colon] 05/11/2021 22:07

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/msi-defence-begins-deliveries-for-mk-38-mod-4-gws-programme

[westofengland] 28/10/2021 17:45

More likely growing recognition of good business they are doing ahead of the next results due in December. This should see the business on a single figure PE with further growth to come.

[cockerhoop] 28/10/2021 10:59

Has MSI been tipped somewhere, no trades this week then a minor flurry this morning?

[norbert colon] 21/10/2021 12:57

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/msisigngroup_rebranding-logo-volkswagen-activity-6856893496360521728-uvG4Nice project for MSI-Signs

[illiswilgig] 29/9/2021 18:29

Yes, I took that 'rolled out' across the fleet to mean that the program would be - I don't know if its single source, there may be multiple suppliers to the same interface. Even so - its a truely enormous opportunity and even a small fraction of it would massively increase MSI-DSI business.

Thanks all - really very helpful,


cheers

[eezymunny] 29/9/2021 17:29

Thanks you guys. Great to get some intelligent input and research even if we´re all still rather in the dark at the end of it :)

By the way that video clip that says these guns will be rolled out:



says they will be rolled out across the entire surface combatant US fleet, starting with the DDGs (might be cobblers of course). The DDGs appear to be the destroyers, and I found somewhere there are about 70 of them. Would there be 2 guns per ship? For an initial roll-out of 140?

We´ll see I guess, but there´s clearly a great deal of potential follow-on from the orders we know about (maybe 150 ships of total US navy fleet of 500 ships?, plus all the other navies that may follow suit etc).

From the head honcho "Our recent positive breakthrough into the western world's largest defence market is truly most encouraging".

Feels like it could be a bagger+ to me, but plenty of bumps in the road ahead of course...

[illiswilgig] 29/9/2021 14:47

Eezymunny,

Hard to say. I guess the benchmark is the 16.5m GBP contract in 2016 for 12 systems placed by the MOD?

Which puts them at around 1.4m GBP each. However the price has probably not gone down in the last few years? It may also be a more complicated variant with specific interfaces for the US requirements? But they may be keen to get the business? And the cost base of a small company like MSI is likely much lower than the multinationals - so the customer may think them cheap as chips anyway?

Delivery. Thank you for that - I'd missed or forgotten that statement. £8m extra turnover does look a bit high for one system? Made me think that there might be other and earlier deliverables across the contract - not saying its the case,just that its a common way to do things with modifications, training etc. Or they delivered a few systems on other contracts. Probably a combination of both - they don't tell us a lot!


cheers

[cockerhoop] 29/9/2021 14:41

This from 2016, collaborates the ball park figures

£16.5m for 12 systems

[eezymunny] 29/9/2021 14:34

Ah that´s great. From the horses mouth :)

Note 26 is indeed useful, though we don´t know if those 22/23 revenues numbers include all the 15 gun orders we know about. Also those numbers are possibly/probably just a percentage of the total order values.

Tricky, as I say...

[cockerhoop] 29/9/2021 14:27

The Exec Ch at this years Agm ;-)

[cockerhoop] 29/9/2021 14:16

Eezy,

£1.5m to £3m depending on spec for each system.

Note 26 in the AR quite interesting with regard to delivery. Making guesses but suggests that the outstanding US orders will be delivered in FY22 & FY23.

US revenue actually went down in FY21 over FY20 so suggests very little defence included although RoW rose sharply (perhaps from the US Overseas program??)

[eezymunny] 29/9/2021 13:33

Thanks illiswilgig

The accounting notes say defence revenue is only recognised on delivery, or "finished and held for delivery". Cash flow a different matter as you say, with pre-payments, escrow etc. It´ll be very interesting to look at the interims. I think there´s a chance they´ll produce a knock-out number but goodness, it´s a tricky one.

Any idea how much a gun of this type sells for? I´ve hunted far and wide but find precious little. I´ve seen numbers in the $10-25m range but I´m struggling to tie that in with anything in the accounts...it may be a fraction of that.

[illiswilgig] 29/9/2021 13:25

Hi Eezymunny,

Good question.

I don't have specific knowledge of MSI's defence division nor these contracts but I have worked with defence contracts with the USAF and NASA.

I am asuming that the setup is something like a standard defence contract - with project milestones and reviews. Payments in advance are made into escrow (in this case) and called off with customer approval at each stage. Deliveries will be important milestones but they will be proceeded by interface and design sign-off and long lead orders, particularly where subcntractor lead times affect deliveries which can knock on up the line - which can be just as important to the client.

I can't predict the rate at which the company will take turnover and profit on the project(s) - and simply assumed the same turnover and profit as H2 FY21.

It will be very interesting to find out what they have achieved.

Another couple of points in the back of my mind

[1] They had a baseload of business already - probably small quantities of cheaper versions at lower margins. Plus a continuous line in spares and maintenance.
[2] They will have a limited capacity to manufacture - they might be close to it. Increasing capacity will take time. Previous highest 5monthly result from defence was 17.7m, 2.8m operating profit and operating margin 16% - not far behind the recent H2. Which adds to my feeling that the last H2 may have been at capacity.
[3] They will have been spending a lot on winning the project. A lot of proposal, negotiation team inclluding legal and contract costs, design modifications and sales and marketing spend - which now gets reversed as the team moves onto project work? That would all have been lost and sunk costs in the event that the contract had not been won - but now it has landed a lot of their resource is making money booking to the project rather than losing it? A smart FD is probably also rebooking some of the proposal technical costs gradually.
[4] I think there was a mention in the notes to the accounts of the amount expected to be called down from escrow within the next 6 months?? I've not got time at the moment to check back.

I can't predict figures for any of that. Plus there are the other three divisions so I just kept it simple and used the same figures as H2 ish.

There is some downside risk if the project hits a problem and turnover/profit is delayed - but there is also upside risk as productivity and margin increase and capacity starts to expand. Could be either way - but on balance I think there is some risk to the upside for this division???

I could well be biased there - I would be delighted to see them succeed exporting to the US military, so much stuff seems to flow the other way! And its good for my bottom line as well - so I am trying not to get ahead of myself on this,

Hope this helps?


cheers

[eezymunny] 29/9/2021 10:02

illiswilgig24

What are you basing your forecasts on for defence? There was a huge turnaround in revenue/profitability from H1 to H2 last year in the defence division, yet they say they only delivered one of the 15 naval guns that they have received orders for in H2.

[illiswilgig] 27/9/2021 13:56

Thanks Norbert - very interesting and useful. Looked like an attractive stand - assuming the US roll out continues the chances of sales across the gulf and asia will be hugely enhanced. At least that's the way it normally goes......

cheers

[norbert colon] 27/9/2021 11:44

They are on the Mk38 Mod 4 prototype programme (planned to replace the Mod 3). BAE have supplied the Mod 3 in the past but I'm not sure if as sole supplier.The clip notes that the Mod 4 is planned be rolled out initially on the DDG (Guided Missile Destroyers) initially. All looking good so far....

[profdoc] 27/9/2021 11:17

Thanks Norbert - Seahawk to be fitted on all US Navy surface ships sounds very good to me.

[norbert colon] 27/9/2021 11:07

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m9wkllH7IQ4m 55s onward - brief but useful.

[playful] 13/7/2021 17:59

It’s a possibility but not sure at the moment... I’ll message you if I’m going.

Don’t forget you’ll need to email [e-mail] to confirm attendance.

[cockerhoop] 13/7/2021 16:33

Are you heading to the AGM Stuart?