Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 01/4/2021 11:42

shaker agree there but I am talking purely as an investment case.
Its buy or sell.

Once you have a position that you are happy with then its wise to hold.

It is difficult when you ride a position for example my core holding here 220k shares cost me under £200k but had a valuation of 1.3 which as a % of my portfolio was out of kilter.

I was in the same situation with 140k TND at an average cost under 1.50 so 210k but again worth 900k.

These two were exceptional over the last 12 months.

I do try however to base my calculation on COST price and my major positions I take a 200k position.

One has to do what you are comfortable with. No 100% right or wrong.

Tiger

[shaker44] 01/4/2021 09:47

Because sometimes I find myself reasonably confident in a share I own but to buy more would skew my balance of risk by being overweight.

[lookagain] 01/4/2021 09:37

CT If you are not a buyer why hold? Is an excellent way of looking at investing.

[castleford tiger] 31/3/2021 18:10

I disagree with many of the posts on here.

Pre tax profits fell in 2020 .........that was expected.

The forecast for 2021 for EPS and cash is showing a level eps ( I think that's over cautious and they will revise up)

We have a final payment on Lambert this year circa 3m

Strip out cash we have a market cap of 85 m

My numbers by 2025 show current NAV is 220p and that will be close to 500p
Eps will rise to around 60p without upgrades
EBIT I see doubling as a minimum by 2024 to 15m

These numbers were slightly better than I thought and we still trade at a discount to our peers.

I have replaced my trading stock of 50k and added 25 so I hold 75k to trade.
My core holding is going nowhere.

If you are not a buyer why hold?
Its a sell or a buy and I am firmly in the buy camp.

Tiger

[g2am] 31/3/2021 17:17

It should be but understandable for the share price to drop as that forward looking view has taken an impact on these results. I get the impression the market felt the PTP would have been higher and there are definite concerns around the pension so a drop is hardly surprising. I certainly expected from the previous RNS that results were going to be higher than they were so I feel 550p to 600p is definitely over valued. If we see these numbers improve back to 2019 levels or higher next year then that's where I'd see a further price rise.

[shaker44] 31/3/2021 14:04

You are right but the share price should be forward looking. Seems odd to sell at these levels and prospects

[g2am] 31/3/2021 13:30

It's a tough one because the pre-tax profits were still only 2.9m, which no matter how you dress it up is still a fall of 46%

[shaker44] 31/3/2021 13:08

Woow. Nearly bought at 520 yesterday then thought hold on-volatile markets. Be patient.

[ammu12] 31/3/2021 12:41

Heavy selling nos

[castleford tiger] 31/3/2021 11:02

Cannot stop buying placed an order for another 50k bought the first 15 at under 500 p

tiger

[richjp] 30/3/2021 18:57

I suggested a few weeks ago that perhaps the share price had maybe got a bit ahead of itself and it looks as though I might have been right. I was thinking of selling when the share price was pushing 600P but got deterred by the wide spread. Too greedy!

Simon Thompson's price target some months ago was 550P so maybe that was more realistic. I think we may have passed that quicker than he was expecting and it will be interesting to see what he says if he gives an update.

Today's results were all positive although nothing new was really announced. I suppose one of their biggest challenges may be supply chain problems but assuming Covid does settle down, I think there will be more progress.

[capercaillie] 30/3/2021 18:41

Shanklin - yes I thought the same. I was counting the word ‘pivot’. I rate both men but would prefer less ‘business speak’.

[bigbigdave] 30/3/2021 13:18

Investors inability to see beyond the headline figures, the outlook here is fabulous.

[shaker44] 30/3/2021 12:20

Why has this taken such a kicking-results ok surely?

[shanklin] 30/3/2021 11:27

Helpful presentation albeit I am disappointed I did not have a Management Buzzword Bingo card ready to go.

I would have been shouting "House" after about 15 minutes :-)

[castleford tiger] 30/3/2021 08:13

Yea got my trading stock back at an even better price.
3 x I have achieved over 10% trading the same batch of shares( separate to my core holding )
Today’s weakness provides a further chance to trade again
Tiger

[edmonda] 30/3/2021 07:35

And presentation at 11am this morning

[edmonda] 30/3/2021 07:35

There is some scepticism that the best engineering companies could consistently expand the top line at 10%+ organically, whilst delivering 10%+ EBIT margins over the economic cycle. This rarely happens, but due to astute foresight, attention to detail & almost flawless execution, we think {{linkedin_mention(urn:li:organization:75780|Mpac Group plc)}} has every chance of breaking the mould.

Helped not only by its 100% exposure to the expanding healthcare, food/beverage and pharmaceuticals industries, but also the secular tailwinds of Ecommence, Industry 4.0, ageing populations, premiumisation, reshoring, biodegradable/recyclable materials and consumer convenience. Elsewhere there are other exciting prospects. Not least in craft beers (re post £10m Switchback acquisition in Sept’20), alongside designing state-of-the-art packaging equipment to manufacture Covid tests and/or vaccine vials, which could add further juice.

Therefore irrespective of the recent price appreciation – we believe there’s still plenty to go for. Lifting our valuation from 445p to 600p/share, yet equally acknowledging that if Mpac can achieve it’s “10+10” target, then the stock would rightly deserve at least a market multiple, driving it to possibly >£10 by 2023.

[bigbigdave] 30/3/2021 07:32

Looks pretty good to me in the face of Covid


MPAC from Equity Development: Lifting our valuation from 445p to 600p/share, yet equally acknowledging that if Mpac can achieve it’s “10+10” target, then the stock would rightly deserve at least a market multiple, driving it to possibly >£10 by 2023.

[bwm2] 25/3/2021 13:13

Ca m'est egale

[cs12] 25/3/2021 12:08

MPAC or TND
Which one will get to £10 first

[our haven] 25/3/2021 10:03

Nice tick up this morning as we move towards Tuesday's results. Hopefully a good sign.

[castleford tiger] 24/3/2021 18:17

not got mine back yet