Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[shaker44] 23/9/2020 10:01

Puzzled by the drop in share price of around 10% in the last 2 weeks or so.
Seems to me that the resurgence of covid is not bad for companies making packaging for pharmaceuticals.
Can someone bearish of mpac help me understand the increased risk please-apart from the negative impact on their pension liabilities if markets fall?

Looks very little trading or margin downside to me but maybe I am missing something?

[castleford tiger] 21/9/2020 15:21

I am buying smaller blocks
Want another 15 k

[olart1] 21/9/2020 14:48

Added a wad at 297.5p

[shaker44] 21/9/2020 12:50

Don't rush Tiger. Wall St heading for 500+ drop at Dow open

[castleford tiger] 21/9/2020 12:16

A good day to buy.
Will be having a few this afternoon

[shanklin] 16/9/2020 09:58

CT, That would be very pleasant.

[mfhmfh] 16/9/2020 09:52

Mr W C Wilkins - Group Finance Director has bought 3,139 shares at 318p.

[castleford tiger] 16/9/2020 08:12

There are none published.
The only people brave enough are on here.
See previous posts suggesting PBT of 10 m
Tiger

[shanklin] 15/9/2020 09:20

Unfortunately EqDev provide no numbers for 2021 in their note of 09-Sep-20. Indeed the number "2021" does not appear in it at all.

[bwm2] 15/9/2020 09:08

Try the on on the Equity Development website

[shanklin] 15/9/2020 08:56

Are there any updated broker forecasts following the recent acquisition please? The forecasts have changed slightly on Stockopedia but I think not enough to reflect a full year of Switchback

[castleford tiger] 14/9/2020 15:47

100% agree
I think the dividend cut was a standard reaction to preserving cash.
Some RBN have since paid it
Tiger

[discodave45] 14/9/2020 10:17

Thank you.

[arregius] 14/9/2020 08:55

Sure. All long here should look for how we can be wrong

[shanklin] 14/9/2020 07:32

discodave45

Thank you for your analysis. Its good to see the bear points on MPAC fairly represented so that they can be discussed here

[discodave45] 13/9/2020 16:19

Soz, div would have been about £303k.

[discodave45] 13/9/2020 16:13

Thanks, some companies are paying back furlough cash (SMS, Redrow, Ikea etc) even though not obligated to.Mpac have not formally stated what assistance they have received so I'm assuming from what they have said that not all employees did return to work during lockdown period. They have a lot of cash and was surprised they cancelled the div (only cost about £370k), perhaps that would have forced their hand in then paying back any furlough cash?. Just wondering.

[castleford tiger] 13/9/2020 13:43

Furlough is not re payable only the loans and I have not seen us take any of those.

tiger

[discodave45] 13/9/2020 12:21

C19 Government assistance received - any guesses as to how much (furlough?) and likelihood of any payback in H2?.

[castleford tiger] 12/9/2020 22:39

It’s not been mentioned but we have either 2 or 3 million earn out still to pay on lambert 2022 from memory.
Margin will be key here but the cost savings from the new bolt on and the chance to hit the European market with their kit leaves huge growth potential.
Have a good weekend
Tiger

[arregius] 12/9/2020 20:50

If you buy Disco, welcome to a long ride here

[discodave45] 12/9/2020 17:42

CTThanks, didn't see that other note, guessing no specific number was given?. The pension is a concern but not a game changer I just wanted to flag it as it is quite significant. Perhaps not in terms of value here but could possibly hinder any future rerating (up to 2024?).Should have posted up as well my glass half full numbers, again not as high as yours but not far off. I reckon Rev, when including Switchback, could be at least £110m. Again using the same bottom line margin of 10% (historically it's been around 7% to 9% so double digit would be an accomplishment in itself). Tax at 12%, then pat comes to £6.7m, eps 33p. Industry peer ratings are about 18, but will use 15 as more in line with a smaller cap company, TP then is 495p.There will obviously be risks as well as rewards that are too unknown at this stage to take into account (stating the obvious I suppose!), but happy now to continue to research and more likely than not to take an initial position.All the best.Ps I've heard/seen two target prices, both at 380p.

[castleford tiger] 12/9/2020 15:57

Discodave.

Its never an issue for me to have "critical" areas of concern looked at in detail.

On the pension issue..........I understand that 33% above the 5.5m and the annual underlying profit will be paid up to a £10m cap.

however there is a note..........

this part of the agreement will fall away in 2021 if the funding deficit is below certain levels.
I understand that a formal valuation will be carried out June 2021.

so it may not be quite as you fear. EPS may well be over 40p.

I think if you look at the LTIP in place you will see the extremely high base figures for these awards to kick in.

I like targets like that.

Your valuation is again a little harsh.

The worry for you is that by being too negative you can miss the boat.
I tent to agree with you profit figures but not your EPS which I have too low and your valuation metric.

To invest you have to feel comfortable and only your own figures will set your mind at rest.

My target of 550p by end of full year 2021 ( just 3 months left of this year) will probably have to be revised as I am sure other bolt on companies may be added.

good luck Tiger

[discodave45] 12/9/2020 12:12

Shaker, sorry also meant to add that their pension schemes are massive when compared to the market cap of the company and for me the corresponding risk and cash outflow is a major red flag.Pension schemes at H1, liabilities £430.4, with assets of £451.5m, hence net defined benefit (asset) of £20.1m on the balance sheet. Which at actuarial may not be the case and could make a big difference, unlikely but as I said I'm looking glass half empty (thus also ignored cash in determining sp).