Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[andrewsr] 01/1/2018 19:22

IMHO They need to have a strategy in place to commercialise this themselves, which shouldn't be a problem, but a bidder/JV may come along post FDA approval when they should be in a very strong position to get a good price/deal.

[waterloo01] 01/1/2018 19:02

Is the strategy to take this to market? Surely they will sell once it has the highest inflection point, pre or post FDA review? Either a global deal or at least a geographic one,

[andrewsr] 01/1/2018 18:52

£20m won't be enough to get to commercialisation (2019) or profitability with losses of £37m in 2017, £32m this year and £15m the following year (Sharescope), but agreed the market cap is small for the market they're about to tap into. Should be very profitable in 2020.

[ianb5004] 01/1/2018 17:13

Mtfb are fully funded through to commercialisation following the non dilutive funding of £20m
Mcap is tiny compared to similar peers. NDA coming in q1.
Wait until June you will pay double imo.
$1bil revenue company in the not to distant future.

[escapetohome] 01/1/2018 15:44

What do you mean? they just raised 20 million , enough to be going forward.

Full stop.

[hybrasil] 01/1/2018 12:44

Its never helpful when your major shareholder is clearly cash strapped.

I think wait until june and if amphions lenders don't sell then it might be interesting.

Too much risk at the present.

[andrewsr] 31/12/2017 09:27

Sharescope has revenues for MTFB of £26.9m in 2019 and losses of £15m. Probably exponential rise after that (£75m, £200m, £550m)??
IMHO they won't have much trouble raising finance to get to profitability, in view of providing essential medication with worldwide demand.

[cyberbub] 30/12/2017 22:26

Just having a look in here after a tip.

On the negative side, the market cap is £100M-odd, it's heavily loss-making and seems from the last results to be rather short of net cash (although it got a $20M loan recently).

On the positive side, it is hoping/expecting to commence sales of its new drug in about 9-12 months' time.

Does anyone have figures for how much analysts expect it to be making p.a. from the new drug? I have seen from some RNSes that it is essentially as effective as vancomycin, but with some reduced side-effects on kidneys etc. I mean that's good clinically for patients, but financially what is the company going to make??

Thanks for any tips. On with my research.

[master rsi] 29/12/2017 12:38

41p was the UT

                            To all of you

                 Happy New Year 2018

[small crow] 29/12/2017 12:32

I've never seen anything nailed on in the markets! Seen lots of surprises though.

[toolsmoker] 29/12/2017 12:24

Nailed on for new highs here in 2018

[longshanks] 29/12/2017 12:21

Your wish is the markets command it would seem

[master rsi] 29/12/2017 12:09

needs a late push mow that the narrow spread is on

[longshanks] 29/12/2017 12:07

His analysis and bear basis was centred around AMP being forced sellers of their shares in MTFB.It is odd that he should have persisted this view through two successful P3 readouts!!It is clear to me and presumably clear to many that whilst AMP undoubtedly have cash issues, their holding in MTFB is valued highly - their reluctance to sell is indicative enough that we have a long way to go before it reaches their estimation of fair value.In this respect the fact that they have agreed a deal with their creditors to profit share any appreciation in MTFB means they really can choose when to sell - as those creditors should be happy to extend indefinitely given MTFB will be generating large sums of cash in a years time.

[escapetohome] 29/12/2017 11:50

Yup, ive found that from an analysis viewpoint perhaps hes not too bad.
But when does the a stock perform as per an analysis? Hardly ever.

Therefore for very many of his bear predictions, the share price does exactly the opposite.

[longshanks] 29/12/2017 11:47

Is that who timw3 is?Certainly the cap fits.

[escapetohome] 29/12/2017 11:36

Is this another tim winni success story?

LOL.

[luckyphilip] 29/12/2017 10:25

Tilly. With you there. Entered competition for five top tips. Priced mtfb at 35. Wasn't supposed to rise before 2nd Jan!

[tilly99] 29/12/2017 10:22

Hopefully as my tip of year it can be from 35p!Only reason we were 30p was cos hedges so short to take out seller Now seller not there we will be 45p End of

[longshanks] 29/12/2017 09:38

According to IG, shorts have increased from 5% to 6% of open positions.Turkeys voting for Xmas

[escapetohome] 29/12/2017 09:34

Shorts closing giving a tailwind!

[stansmith3] 29/12/2017 09:26

happy new year fellow mtfb'ers

[master rsi] 29/12/2017 09:16

40p gone

and the one at bid 40.25p is a Market Maker, some damaged on the book after such a demmand for shares

just move to 40.50p bid as tipping

[longshanks] 29/12/2017 09:16

Boom, boom boom....I'm feeling almost prescient about my prediction that this would be 40p before you knew it....Where is timw3 and his doomsday scenarios?

[small crow] 29/12/2017 08:26

Up 2.5% on NSDQ overnight.