Mothercare Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 05/2/2018 12:46

Yump you know about shares. When you are doing your value analysis, how do you get hold of the numbers so to speak? Do you use Stockopedia or some similar offering to get a look at the figures???

[yump] 04/2/2018 23:13

Thorntons was quite good as long as you didn't catch the first falling knife.

That's a saying that doesn't work, because it depends which falling knife you try to catch, although actually the idea of trying to find value, isn't to throw a load of money at any one particular price.

[ltcm1] 02/2/2018 19:36

fenners are you aware mtc raised £100m in 2014, so there are even more red flags than you outlined above.

It would be nice to see mtc do well but where is the evidence???

Lol re delay but I'm sure we've all had our losers.

I have learnt the hard way buying into a badly falling chart is not a winning strategy.

[fenners66] 02/2/2018 14:57

So I posted on here that dealy was a kind of counter indicator - on Monday morning - and they have lost about 10% since then.......

What a coincidence.

[fenners66] 02/2/2018 14:52

dealy - you still own access to the internet ! hey you can tell us how much you lost on CLLN - if you have got the sand out of your eyes.....

[dealy] 02/2/2018 13:55

A lot of forced sellers in the market after a horror week

[ltcm1] 29/1/2018 18:16

Good post 1169 yump. Clearly you know a lot more about mtc than me. All I am saying is the chart just looks so bad right now, and the capitulation/overshoot doesn't seem to have happened either. Personally I would like to see some recovery on a chart like this prior to buying.

I believe you like the Zulu method. But the chart has correctly signalled the problems they have here. It hardly looks oversold to me at least.

[terminated] 29/1/2018 13:47

To be fair every board has a deramper. When it tanks they so sumersalts and dance on the graves of the unfortunate. If if goes up you never hear from them again. No one gets it right all the time.

[yump] 29/1/2018 13:14

I've found its best to ignore anyone who touts anyone else as an expert or doomster. You can believe that or not, I really don't care.

If you've got an issue with someone, that's your lookout, but I certainly wouldn't let one poster's success or failure affect my judgement of whether to invest or not.

[fenners66] 29/1/2018 12:26

I am sure , had I come on here lauding dealy as some sort of special situations / recovery guru investor telling of his skill and judgement in spotting and exploiting value - you would have had an entirely different comment for me.

CLLN and MTC have several things in common - and I have not done any research on MTC yet. I have a vague passing interest and have read headlines over the years...

But ,
1, share price has tanked
2, dealy looks like he has put his money in
3, debt rising
4, profits falling

Is there a pension deficit here?
Have they paid out dividends they could not afford
Is their market subject to structural competition?

Just got to be careful - I agree - dealy is one person who has shown himself to be careless and refused to listen to reason.
Draw your own conclusions - but the parallels are there to be seen - of all the investments on all the worlds markets he starts posting on this one.......

[yump] 29/1/2018 11:03

You could comment on MTC, rather than on someone else - that might be interesting.

The only thing CLLN and MTC have in common is that the share prices have tanked and there's a long list of others that could be added to that, although they are all different businesses.

Share prices are exaggerated in both directions, just got to be careful which ones to join in with.

[fenners66] 29/1/2018 10:56

Yump >"I don't know if it will work out, but the time to buy potential recovery stocks is when nobody thinks they will recover"

dealy > "Well said yump. Im on for the long haul here. The hard work is behind them"

I see you have found another Carillion dealy to throw money at.

I am missing reading your precious comedy gold comments on the CLLN board.

For background throughout 2016 dealy has been telling everyone that CLLN had no problems, the pension deficit would magically fade away , that debt was not as high as we had calculated , that they were going to make £300m from disposals that they had a £20bn order book (despite it being loss making) and all of the bad news was out in the open in July 2016 even over the weekend before it was declared insolvent on the 15th Jan .....

The list of his Comical Ali comments goes on and on , so much so that people started calling him deluded.

To see he has picked another basket case to add his support to is so enlightening. Is he going to call this one right? Or is he a desperate gambler looking for a long shot to try and recover his losses?


How much did you lose on CLLN despite 6 months of warnings that you would lose it dealy?

His track record suggests that his comments will not add value but dyor.....

[yump] 28/1/2018 11:00

That depends whether you are looking at the business or the share price.

The financials were recovering until this year with the overseas slowdown and now the recent update with UK consumer sales slowing, which has hit at what you could say is exactly the wrong time. You can blame management for that I guess if you like, but it seems a little illogical.

Previously they posted increased profits on reduced revenue, so that was going in the right direction. That was since Mark Newton-Jones appointment in July 2014 and the strategy starting Nov. 14.

My reading of the situation is that most funds and pi's have lost interest in MTC regardless of what's going on, because of the rejected t/o offer (disappointed folk wanting to get out), the surprise profit warning after Christmas 2013 and the length of time its taken for someone to get a grip.

So I think the jury is out on this particular management/strategy and I certainly wouldn't say they can't deliver - as it was looking promising, up until their market hiccupped. Previously it was MTC at fault.

(quite interesting looking back at the number of share holding announcements during the US offer - that sort of history can play havoc with the share price - once the offer is rejected)

[ltcm1] 27/1/2018 21:54

The thing is the idea may be very good but the management aren't capable of implementing it. It's been downhill for nearly three years now and that can't be right. They don't seem to be connecting with their customers in the right way.

[bc4] 24/1/2018 15:53

Could you please?

[ricer93] 24/1/2018 13:38

could you guys give me a quick reminder of how much debt this company has?

[terminated] 24/1/2018 12:53

But they've just had a bad trading period so for some this is the time to buy. Looking at it historically it should be able to turn in a £20m profit minimum (given the franchises alone make £17 - £25m pa), especially after the efficiency gains are taking into account. This should be enough to pay for further store closures without increasing debt but may not be enough to pay off debt over the short term. This is obviously why the price is where it is. I still think a buyer would be interested in this brand and it would go for double it's current price. It's one of the riskier stocks in my portfolio but I'll hold for 12 months to see how the reorganisation has impacted on profits.

[yump] 23/1/2018 23:42

I think you're under the misapprehension that I bought at 300p. Perhaps my English wasn't clear enough.

I meant: 'I'm not looking at the chart after buying at 300p, I'm looking at it after buying much lower down'.

Although as I said, at this point the chart is pretty much irrelevant to my investment strategy.

Clearly MTC are not making no money, they are making quite a lot. Turnarounds are all about trying to figure out whether the business itself has viability if run right and then working out some sort of range of entry point valuations. There is no definite point of buying of course - you can't tell in advance how low the price will go and for how long, but there can be a value at which you think its worth buying.

[ltcm1] 23/1/2018 22:33

The thing is, if you don't have trading rules you are putting yourself at a huge disadvantage. It's like backing a horse at 3/1 when it's true odds are 10/1. Those times you win, you won't get the correct payoff.

Investing is not about being right, it's about managing your risk. Yes mtc could recover but you aren't going to get the payoff now you are so far under. You would need a 7 bagger just to get even.

I also know that statistically the better bet is on the downside with this type of chart, because if it goes well below 40 it will enter a capitulation phase.

[dealy] 22/1/2018 22:35

Well said yump. Im on for the long haul here. The hard work is behind them

[yump] 22/1/2018 16:43

I think you're misunderstanding what I'm doing here. Its a recovery investment, not a trade and for that an understanding of the business and financials is what is needed, not a chart.

Some stocks recover, some don't, but its all to do with the business and management, not what support or resistance a share has at any particular time.

[ltcm1] 22/1/2018 15:36

Ouch. With respect yump, do you not have any trading rules? Like once you have lost half you need a double to get back to even!

Looking at the graph, shares that gap down do often trade lower in the weeks after. Maybe they will recover but this is a falling knife with no support level if it goes below 40.

[yump] 22/1/2018 14:48

Fortunately I'm not looking at the chart after buying at 300p. I'm looking at it in the same way I looked at the Thornton's chart when it tanked, because of having too many stores and iffy management.

Thorntons couldn't cross-sell to increase customer spend. MTC can.

I don't know if it will work out, but the time to buy potential recovery stocks is when nobody thinks they will recover.